96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Especially the evergreens. Ugh. even now at sundown, there is an enormous amount of snow on the trees. this cannot end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Low level cold air hanging on the surface. Big time ZR over much of NNJ. sitting at 34 currently hoping this saves me in that regard tomorrow.. just west of me will be issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 sitting at 34 currently hoping this saves me in that regard tomorrow.. just west of me will be issues Won't help if we radiate well until clouds thicken and up until storm time. Right now cloud cover is scarce at best along the NJ NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High level clouds starting to roll in up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Won't help if we radiate well until clouds thicken and up until storm time. Right now cloud cover is scarce at best along the NJ NE coast. so you;re thinking we stay mostly frozen even with proximity to the water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High level clouds starting to roll in up here. Won't help enough to stop good radiating through event start time unfortunately particularly for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 even now at sundown, there is an enormous amount of snow on the trees. this cannot end well. Gotta hope the 1" of freezing rain the NAM is showing for East Brunswick is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 19z HRRR at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 so you;re thinking we stay mostly frozen even with proximity to the water? I like the 18z RGEM depiction in this setup so no if that verifies we won't completely avoid a change to rain. Just a note being close to the water really means little with this imho, it's the strength of the primary (and to a lesser extent along with a disorganized unfavorably positioned coastal) blasting the upper and mid levels with warmth that casues a changeover not ocean proximity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Especially the evergreens. Ugh. exactly. 4" of accumulated snow is common place on the evergreens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High level clouds starting to roll in up here. Enough cloud coverage at the moment here to prevent good rc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I like the 18z RGEM depiction in this setup so no if that verifies we won't completely avoid a change to rain. Just a note being close to the water really means little with this imho, it's the strength of the primary (and to a lesser extent along with a disorganized unfavorably positioned coastal) blasting the upper and mid levels with warmth that casues a changeover not ocean proximity. The three 18z models trended colder at the surface. This is very common in SWFE storms-they trend warmer/north at the mid levels, and colder at the surface. I think the ice threat is quite real in places that are west/north of the coastal front and wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where does that leave you and me JM, in icy good shape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where does that leave you and me JM, in icy good shape? No one will know until tonight/tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Forecasted low of 31 , Down to 28.7 on here a N wind . May not mean anything down by me , but further N DPs are in low 20`s . Once you guys start as snow 850`s are Minus 4- 6 you go into the mid 20`s If you get into the mid 20`s and you`re winds go NE , you not coming out of the hole . Warmest Guidance is 33- 34 - the Coldest is 28 - 30 . Really have to count on the models not being off by 2 degrees or many more are in the danger zone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where does that leave you and me JM, in icy good shape? This could be Lynbrook http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Southern Nassau added to Winter Storm Warning NYZ179-051100-/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z//O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/SOUTHERN NASSAU-406 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY..* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRAFLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF ANEMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This could be Lynbrook http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/amazing-scenes-severe-storm-encases-slovenian-town-ice-1434997 Is that sferic in the pic? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close I'd do my homework tonight if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close Don't think that will be an issue. When school administrators wake up and can't open their car doors, I think they'll know to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close I love how the media is completely ignoring the ice threat for the NYC metro and suburbs. They must be riding the GFS/Euro for surface temp guidance, and we're already colder than what they showed at this time. Hi-res models have the best handle on this in regards to low level temps and precip type. Globals have too poor of resolutions to use in these events imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close NYC schools don't close but I would love if they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I love how the media is completely ignoring the ice threat for the NYC metro and suburbs. They must be riding the GFS/Euro for surface temp guidance, and we're already colder than what they showed at this time. Hi-res models have the best handle on this in regards to low level temps and precip type. Globals have too poor of resolutions to use in these events imo. Nick Gregory actually DID point out something to the effect that the icing problem is the main issue with this storm and mentioned power line issues, etc. At least one of the major mets has his priorities straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Current temps don't matter since when precipitation starts the temp will drop. The column is what matters, not the ground temps. Temps will be below freezing for everyone once precipitation starts. How long they stay that way and how much mid level warming we see will determine how much of each precipitation type we will receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NYC schools don't close but I would love if they did Nice to see another poster from Bay Ridge...I live on Bay Ridge Parkway near 6th Avenue. It's a great area minus the fact that it's a local minimum for average snowfall. Didn't DeBlasio close schools for the 1/2 storm? We have a new mayor, and we haven't seen an ice storm in a long time. They might close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Did they close in 1/7/1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour? CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSCENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 33 22 63 CALM 30.39RLAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY 36 22 56 VRB6 30.37R WCI 31KENNEDY INTL MOCLDY 31 21 66 S6 30.40R WCI 25NEWARK/LIBERTY MOCLDY 33 22 63 S7 30.38R WCI 27TETERBORO PTCLDY 33 21 61 SW5 30.37R WCI 29$$NYZ177-179-078>081-042300-LONG ISLAND NEW YORKCITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKSFARMINGDALE CLEAR 31 21 66 S7 30.39R WCI 24ISLIP MOCLDY 32 22 66 S6 30.37R WCI 26SHIRLEY CLOUDY 31 23 72 S6 30.40R WCI 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 down to 28 in New Brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour? CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 33 22 63 CALM 30.39R LAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY 36 22 56 VRB6 30.37R WCI 31 KENNEDY INTL MOCLDY 31 21 66 S6 30.40R WCI 25 NEWARK/LIBERTY MOCLDY 33 22 63 S7 30.38R WCI 27 TETERBORO PTCLDY 33 21 61 SW5 30.37R WCI 29 $$ NYZ177-179-078>081-042300- LONG ISLAND NEW YORK CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS FARMINGDALE CLEAR 31 21 66 S7 30.39R WCI 24 ISLIP MOCLDY 32 22 66 S6 30.37R WCI 26 SHIRLEY CLOUDY 31 23 72 S6 30.40R WCI 25 Just want to note that I'm in Roslyn, not too far from LaGuardia and we're at 30 here. That temp is very high. If you look at all the stations around here, they're at either 30 or 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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