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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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so you;re thinking we stay mostly frozen even with proximity to the water?

I like the 18z RGEM depiction in this setup so no if that verifies we won't completely avoid a change to rain. Just a note being close to the water really means little with this imho, it's the strength of the primary (and to a lesser extent along with a disorganized unfavorably positioned coastal) blasting the upper and mid levels with warmth that casues a changeover not ocean proximity.

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I like the 18z RGEM depiction in this setup so no if that verifies we won't completely avoid a change to rain. Just a note being close to the water really means little with this imho, it's the strength of the primary (and to a lesser extent along with a disorganized unfavorably positioned coastal) blasting the upper and mid levels with warmth that casues a changeover not ocean proximity.

The three 18z models trended colder at the surface. This is very common in SWFE storms-they trend warmer/north at the mid levels, and colder at the surface. I think the ice threat is quite real in places that are west/north of the coastal front and wind shift.

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Forecasted low of 31 , Down to 28.7 on here  a N wind .  May not mean anything down by me , but further N DPs are in low 20`s .

Once you guys start as snow 850`s are Minus 4- 6 you go into the mid 20`s

If you get into the mid 20`s and you`re winds go NE ,  you not coming out of the hole .

Warmest Guidance is 33- 34 - the Coldest is 28 - 30 . Really have to count on the models  not being off by 2 degrees

or many  more  are in the danger zone .

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Southern Nassau added to Winter Storm Warning

NYZ179-051100-/O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z//O.EXA.KOKX.WS.W.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/SOUTHERN NASSAU-406 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMEST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY..* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND  FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG  WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET  AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT  SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE  ACCUMULATIONS WILL KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRAFLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF ANEMERGENCY.
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Wet bulb temps are 28F once precip starts in NYC, if wind keeps a northerly component this could be very dangerous and schools MUST close

 

I love how the media is completely ignoring the ice threat for the NYC metro and suburbs. They must be riding the GFS/Euro for surface temp guidance, and we're already colder than what they showed at this time.

 

Hi-res models have the best handle on this in regards to low level temps and precip type. Globals have too poor of resolutions to use in these events imo.

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I love how the media is completely ignoring the ice threat for the NYC metro and suburbs. They must be riding the GFS/Euro for surface temp guidance, and we're already colder than what they showed at this time.

 

Hi-res models have the best handle on this in regards to low level temps and precip type. Globals have too poor of resolutions to use in these events imo.

 

Nick Gregory actually DID point out something to the effect that the icing problem is the main issue with this storm and mentioned power line issues, etc. At least one of the major mets has his priorities straight!

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Current temps don't matter since when precipitation starts the temp will drop. The column is what matters, not the ground temps.

Temps will be below freezing for everyone once precipitation starts. How long they stay that way and how much mid level warming we see will determine how much of each precipitation type we will receive.

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NYC schools don't close  :lol:

 

but I would love if they did  :rolleyes:

Nice to see another poster from Bay Ridge...I live on Bay Ridge Parkway near 6th Avenue. It's a great area minus the fact that it's a local minimum for average snowfall.

 

Didn't DeBlasio close schools for the 1/2 storm? We have a new mayor, and we haven't seen an ice storm in a long time. They might close...

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So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour?

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
CENTRAL PARK   CLOUDY    33  22  63 CALM      30.39R
LAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY    36  22  56 VRB6      30.37R WCI  31
KENNEDY INTL   MOCLDY    31  21  66 S6        30.40R WCI  25
NEWARK/LIBERTY MOCLDY    33  22  63 S7        30.38R WCI  27
TETERBORO      PTCLDY    33  21  61 SW5       30.37R WCI  29
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-042300-
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
FARMINGDALE    CLEAR     31  21  66 S7        30.39R WCI  24
ISLIP          MOCLDY    32  22  66 S6        30.37R WCI  26
SHIRLEY        CLOUDY    31  23  72 S6        30.40R WCI  25
 

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So where were the surface winds modeled to be from the south at this hour?

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

CENTRAL PARK   CLOUDY    33  22  63 CALM      30.39R

LAGUARDIA APRT MOCLDY    36  22  56 VRB6      30.37R WCI  31

KENNEDY INTL   MOCLDY    31  21  66 S6        30.40R WCI  25

NEWARK/LIBERTY MOCLDY    33  22  63 S7        30.38R WCI  27

TETERBORO      PTCLDY    33  21  61 SW5       30.37R WCI  29

$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-042300-

LONG ISLAND NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

FARMINGDALE    CLEAR     31  21  66 S7        30.39R WCI  24

ISLIP          MOCLDY    32  22  66 S6        30.37R WCI  26

SHIRLEY        CLOUDY    31  23  72 S6        30.40R WCI  25

 

Just want to note that I'm in Roslyn, not too far from LaGuardia and we're at 30 here. That temp is very high. If you look at all the stations around here, they're at either 30 or 31. 

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