doncat Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doesn't Mt holly and upton usually corroborate with each other... big differences in snow sleet accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ya yanksfan it has small totals bc it literally started 2 hours prior lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's only up until the last frame, which has the snow just starting in the area. I deleted it when I realized that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 18Z RGEM is about 10-20 miles south with the specific ptypes most of the period...now at 15Z it shows PL/FZRA to near the north shore of LI...previous run it was a tad north but overall similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS has initialized. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 18Z RGEM is about 10-20 miles south with the specific ptypes most of the period...now at 15Z it shows PL/FZRA to near the north shore of LI...previous run it was a tad north but overall similar. Where does it show the most icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So what I can extrapolate is potentially we are in for rough weather on top of what is already on the ground. Tomorrow morning: School closer NYCDOE? I feel confidant there is some rain, but 2-4 inches of snow and mainly ice...dangerous but interesting. No rain....Major ice . When media outlets refer to immediate shorelines are they referring to south shore beaches in suffolk or Suffolk and Nassau, jersey coast? or anywhere there is water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM is south from it's 12z run..now showing 10-15mm of snow in NYC and big time ZR inland. Similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS brining in the initial slug of precip a little faster. Maybe by 5-6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Decent front end dump, taint begins by 12z from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM is south from it's 12z run..now showing 10-15mm of snow in NYC and big time ZR inland. Similar to the NAM. Do you think Ice Storm Warnings would be more appropriate for the I-80 corridor? I know a few inches of snow at the onset is possible but the guidance seems to be flipping this afternoon towards a more ominous solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS brining in the initial slug of precip a little faster. Maybe by 5-6z. Decent front end dump, taint begins by 12z from SW to NE. So there would be 6+ hours of snow for most of the area? Not bad at all, the longer we keep the snow the less ice we would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z GFS brining in the initial slug of precip a little faster. Maybe by 5-6z. There was a saying I saw in the NE forum once about SWFEs, snow arrives sooner but so does the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Low level cold air hanging on the surface. Big time ZR over much of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rgem total snow http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&hi=000&hf=120&type=SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The coastal front still makes it further inland than the NAM/RGEM, but this run was noticeably colder at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs has the surface low slightly further south, but it can't pick up on the low level cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM total ZR Total IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For reference 10mm is ~0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any ice that accumulates on top of the snow on the trees is not good for power. I think we see 100k type power outages in and around the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rgem total rain http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&type=RN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you think Ice Storm Warnings would be more appropriate for the I-80 corridor? I know a few inches of snow at the onset is possible but the guidance seems to be flipping this afternoon towards a more ominous solution. Very close to the criteria, but looks to be just short based on the forecasts from OKX/Mt. Holly. I'd imagine they'll stick with the existing warnings. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/wwa_definitions_new.html "Ice Storm Warning Issued when freezing rain is expected to produce ice accumulations of 1/2 inch or greater, or cause significant disruptions to travel or utilities." Not sure if that's the same for Mt. Holly, but I'd imagine so for Morris/Sussex/Warren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's only up until the last frame, which has the snow just starting in the area. Yeah thats till 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What a mess this is going to be. Plus some say no snow Others have some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 gfs still showing a nice front end dump of snow for nw burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM certainly colder than prior run with 4" of snow running at about Rt.78, with additional sleet/ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've seen several people ask about the huge discrepancies in snow, especially (and ice) along the border between the NWS NYC and Philly counties, but haven't seen a good answer explaining it yet. Almost looks like no collaboration occurred, or I'm missing something. Hard to have 4-6" in Union and <1" in adjacent Middlesex and 1-2" in adjacent Somerset or 2-4" in SI and <1" in adjacent (and further inland) Middlesex. And that's just for the snow. Both can't be right. Anyone have an explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here was the 12z UKMET total QPF. PPTP not available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 even now at sundown, there is an enormous amount of snow on the trees. this cannot end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z NAM IP 18z NAM ZR 18z NAM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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