SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the HRRR continues to want to show the SN/FZRA line Sandy Hook-TTN as late as 09z...not sure I believe it stays that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This about an hour before the main QPF pulls away , These are the warmest the 4k NAM thinks the surface is up thru HR 22 Wow a temp of 29 - 30 would cause serious icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is the average sleet to liquid ratio? Snow is usually 10:1 I believe its about 5:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mt Holly just reduced snow and increased ice ICE SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Like I said earlier, I don't think you're area gets above 32. 30-32 throughout IMO. The set up favors the north shore to stay frozen (north of the LIE). There's no reason why the south shore will be warmer than the north shore, if it is it will likely be a very marginal difference, a NE winds generally creates uniform temps island wide. I do think the mid levels will be warmer on the south shore and possibly more freezing rain than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just to let you know, the HRRR, RAP, RPM,and RUC nailed the last event with the rain in SNJ and the heavy snow further north, short range models are very reliable now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There's no reason why the south shore will be warmer than the north shore, if it is it will likely be a very marginal difference, a NE winds generally creates uniform temps island wide. I do think the mid levels will be warmer on the south shore and possibly more freezing rain than sleet. Wherever the CF sets up will certainly be warmer. The south shore always runs warmer than the north shore in these events. It's part for the course when you have a SWFE like this. But anywhere north or west of the CF will stay near or below freezing. And just northwest of there is probably seeing ice accretion from freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I believe its about 5:1.I stand by my 3:1 lolhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall_2008/mixed_precip/Mixed_precip.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow a temp of 29 - 30 would cause serious icing The key for icing is 30 or below .If the 4K NAM is right that's a lot of people . Watch temps tonite , they didn't warm around the area that much . The MODEL can easily be too cold by 1 or 2 , but its 1 or 2 Degrees too warm , then travel will be impossible with that much liquid . DP are pretty low and as the precip moves in , 850`s are Minus 6 , So temps are going to fall initially . If you`re winds turn NE and you`re still in the upper 20`s you don't come out of the hole . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mt Holly just reduced snow and increased ice ICE SNOW Which category does sleet go into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is accuweather still promoting 3-6 for NYC and surrounding areas proper while here it looks like we might not even get a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the HRRR continues to want to show the SN/FZRA line Sandy Hook-TTN as late as 09z...not sure I believe it stays that far south that's strange because it's usually a bit too far north with it's snow banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I personally think that around the city, it will be more of a sleet fest, then a freezing rain event. With almost no plain rain. The 18z NAM soundings I looked at for out here seemed to indicate more sleet than zr. That would be the best outcome. It does tend more towards zr as the event progresses, then back to sleet towards the end. 850s go above zero after 12z Weds, but at that point everything below 850 is still < 0...that is a sleet sounding for sure at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is the average sleet to liquid ratio? Snow is usually 10:1 3:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darienzo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton afternoon update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wherever the CF sets up will certainly be warmer. The south shore always runs warmer than the north shore in these events. It's part for the course when you have a SWFE like this. But anywhere north or west of the CF will stay near or below freezing. And just northwest of there is probably seeing ice accretion from freezing rain. This is what it will likely come down to. The HRRR had the coastal front signature run through central LI on a SW-NE orientation. The positioning of this front will be crucial for the forecast out here. IIRC, in the 12/14 storm temps were a tad warmer on the south shore, marginal, it might me a difference with a temp near 32 generally island wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton also upped ice and cut snow in half far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4-6 inches of snow. Plus ice?.. mmm which model shows this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wherever the CF sets up will certainly be warmer. The south shore always runs warmer than the north shore in these events. It's part for the course when you have a SWFE like this. But anywhere north or west of the CF will stay near or below freezing. And just northwest of there is probably seeing ice accretion from freezing rain. There are a few exceptions but in my 30 years of living here, I have seen this all too many times where the NS is 30-32 with frozen precip and the south shore is 33-36 (37 at FOK..a given [usually] in these events that Fox is the warmest location. I'm not sure why. I'd figure Montauk would be) and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is accuweather still promoting 3-6 for NYC and surrounding areas proper while here it looks like we might not even get a coating.Upton has this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wonder if they flip any counties to ISW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just to let you know, the HRRR, RAP, RPM,and RUC nailed the last event with the rain in SNJ and the heavy snow further north, short range models are very reliable now The RAP is way out there but it is actually pretty cold with the 850s , you can almost see a back door front on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The SREF plumes are still nothing more than ~2" in all the metro locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4-6 inches of snow. Plus ice?.. mmm which model shows this? Yeah still surprised how aggressive Upton remains for us. They at least finally took it down from 6-8 (unfortunately) which was completely out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Upton is much more bullish than Mt. Holly on both snow and ice maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I believe its about 5:1. So verbatim, the NAM could be 2-3" sleet? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wherever the CF sets up will certainly be warmer. The south shore always runs warmer than the north shore in these events. It's part for the course when you have a SWFE like this. But anywhere north or west of the CF will stay near or below freezing. And just northwest of there is probably seeing ice accretion from freezing rain. Exactly!!! CF is everything. Back in 94 I was in middle school and the school is 3 miles further north then my home. Left school in North Wantagh with freezing rain (they lety us out early) and it was plain rain down south at my house. 3 miles was the diffence between a damaging dangerous ice storm and nothing! This will be a now cast type event. Climo says the coastal front sets up some where in the center fo the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There are a few cases where this is not true but in my 30 years of living here, I have seen this all too many times where the NS is 30-32 with frozen precip and the south shore is 33-36 (37 at FOK..a given [usually] in these events that Fox is the warmest location. I'm not sure why. I'd figure Montauk would be) and rain It usually happens. The CF signature on the 4km NAM is expected to stay south of LI through the morning hours, it cuts through the center of the island eventually around noon, at that time the north shore will definitely be colder than the south shore. But before that the difference is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So if upton is calling for 4-6" snow and 0.34" ice, that means they are assuming the entire event is frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It usually happens. The CF signature on the 4km NAM is expected to stay south of LI through the morning hours, it cuts through the center of the island eventually around noon, at that time the north shore will definitely be colder than the south shore. But before that the difference is minimal. Most of the heavy falling precip should be done by noon. This is a morning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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