LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So Is KJFK and sw Nass County going to get ice mainly or rain since even an inch o snow is not likely now Rain rain and more rain. A touch of sleet then over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm curious to see if nyc schools consider ice dangerous. ..since a 6-10 inch snowstorm is not for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is clueless on timing, Indy is about to start snowing yet at 00z it does not show snow there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The impacts of the freezing rain will ultimately come down to the wind direction and whether your area can stay more than 1 degree below freezing. There's more to ZR than just the model showing it. The worst impacts come when you're a few degrees below and it's raining moderately. This allows for significant ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Low res models aren't going to pick up on the low level cold. All the hi-res models are significantly colder than the globals.that's correct I think ice is a real threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For north shore folks, 18z NAM does not get the surface above freezing at Smithtown: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=40.88%2C-73.21&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h24&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=1024x768 Like I said earlier, I don't think you're area gets above 32. 30-32 throughout IMO. The set up favors the north shore to stay frozen (north of the LIE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is clueless on timing, Indy is about to start snowing yet at 00z it does not show snow there yet Good point that might lead to more snow/sleet here vs ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rain rain and more rain. A touch of sleet then over to plain rain. Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM has a supreme advantage in picking up the low level cold air and warm air aloft. It's a high resolution short range model. This is what it's supposed to be what it's most useful for. You mean the 4km NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Call me sick but the weenie side of me wants ZR to preserve the snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them. I'm in the same school of thought even though this def favors the north shore more than us staying frozen. But last night the Euro never had due east winds. They were NE for the most part and ENE for a short time and it still showed rain verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is clueless on timing, Indy is about to start snowing yet at 00z it does not show snow there yet Maybe that's why accuweather 1010 wins has 3 to 6 of snow in the city!! Good thumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Since this quickly got buried before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm in the same school of thought even though this def favors the north shore more than us staying frozen. But last night the Euro never had due east winds. They were NE for the most part and ENE for a short time and it still showed rain verbatim. The Euro is often too warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I also heard in a different forum that the nam is busting way too warm further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I also heard in a different forum that the nam is busting way too warm further west.Aloft or at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them. During one of the 07 sleet storms it got above freezing in Wantagh and not in Long Beach!!!! There was freezing rain there and not here. So even being a few miles west can effact things. Im not saying that happens with this storm just that a few miles could be everything here. Im holding to my guns with rain and the south shore. Up in the hills of the north shore its a diffent story ice there for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They have to close NYC schools if this verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I also heard in a different forum that the nam is busting way too warm further west. If you are referring to 12z which was extremely warm. NWS Boston @NWSBoston 2h Tech: 12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues resulting in a stronger mid level low and likely too far N with warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 More confused than ever. Gut feeling is a small amount of snow, sleet then Freezing rate (1/3 of an inch) a skating ring through long Island with temperatures hovering around 32. Wish we had 3-6 inch thumping before ZR but not likely to get more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here comes all the NAM bashing just because it shows something you don't want. Go ahead an attempt to pick it with a fine toothed comb. The SREF's basically showed the same thing. 12z GEFS probs for ice are high. WPC honking the ice. It's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 During one of the 07 sleet storms it got above freezing in Wantagh and not in Long Beach!!!! There was freezing rain there and not here. So even being a few miles west can effact things. Im not saying that happens with this storm just that a few miles could be everything here. Im holding to my guns with rain and the south shore. Up in the hills of the north shore its a diffent story ice there for sure Yea i remember those storm 3" of sleet was the same as shoveling 12" of heavy snow....cars were stuck for days and Bloomberg got a lot of heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is the average sleet to liquid ratio? Snow is usually 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This about an hour before the main QPF pulls away , These are the warmest the 4k NAM thinks the surface is up thru HR 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 3:1 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall_2008/mixed_precip/Mixed_precip.html What is the average sleet to liquid ratio? Snow is usually 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here comes all the NAM bashing just because it shows something you don't want. Go ahead an attempt to pick it with a fine toothed comb. The SREF's basically showed the same thing. 12z GEFS probs for ice are high. WPC honking the ice. It's happening. Who's bashing the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is the average sleet to liquid ratio? Snow is usually 10:1 close to 3:1 from what I have read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 1.00" of IP/ZR for NYC on the HI-res NAM, are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is picking up on the coastal front running just southeast of the GSP in Monmouth Co and then northeastward to JFK. The GFS pushes it inland much faster. The argument that the NAM is better at handling the low level cold is not off base. But I want to see the RGEM again at 18z. It was much farther north and warmer than the latest 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the HRRR continues to want to show the SN/FZRA line Sandy Hook-TTN as late as 09z...not sure I believe it stays that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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