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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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The impacts of the freezing rain will ultimately come down to the wind direction and whether your area can stay more than 1 degree below freezing. There's more to ZR than just the model showing it. The worst impacts come when you're a few degrees below and it's raining moderately. This allows for significant ice accretion.

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For north shore folks, 18z NAM does not get the surface above freezing at Smithtown:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=40.88%2C-73.21&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h24&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=1024x768

Like I said earlier, I don't think you're area gets above 32. 30-32 throughout IMO. The set up favors the north shore to stay frozen (north of the LIE).
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Rain rain and more rain. A touch of sleet then over to plain rain.

Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them.

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Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them.

I'm in the same school of thought even though this def favors the north shore more than us staying frozen. But last night the Euro never had due east winds. They were NE for the most part and ENE for a short time and it still showed rain verbatim.

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Part of me thinks that's going to be the case, then part of me looks at that NAM run and gets alarmed that this can be perhaps significantly more icing even for us. If we're locked in a NE wind there will not be a mechanism to warm us up-we need the secondary to track near us so that winds shift more easterly. The icing may cause a significant amount of damage to trees still with pasty snow on them.

 

During one of the 07 sleet storms it got above freezing in Wantagh and not in Long Beach!!!! There was freezing rain there and not here. So even being a few miles west can effact things. Im not saying that happens with this storm just that a few miles could be everything here. Im holding to my guns with rain and the south shore. Up in the hills of the north shore its a diffent story ice there for sure

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During one of the 07 sleet storms it got above freezing in Wantagh and not in Long Beach!!!! There was freezing rain there and not here. So even being a few miles west can effact things. Im not saying that happens with this storm just that a few miles could be everything here. Im holding to my guns with rain and the south shore. Up in the hills of the north shore its a diffent story ice there for sure

Yea i remember those storm 3" of sleet was the same as shoveling 12" of heavy snow....cars were stuck for days and Bloomberg got a lot of heat

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The NAM is picking up on the coastal front running just southeast of the GSP in Monmouth Co and then northeastward to JFK. The GFS pushes it inland much faster.

The argument that the NAM is better at handling the low level cold is not off base. But I want to see the RGEM again at 18z. It was much farther north and warmer than the latest 18z nam.

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