Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man, verbatim the NAM has an insane snow cut-off in extreme northern NJ. Right at the NY/NJ border in C and W NJ 6-9", while once to Rt.78 maybe an inch or 2. All west of the city stay nearly 100% frozen/freezing though...thanks to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I still believe the rates will cut down on ice accrual. You know, anything above 30 degrees I would agree with you. I'm not eager to find out what 20's and heavy rain looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So you guys are sayin nyc is going to get freezing rain but it's going to melt once it falls right, it's not going to freeze to the surface instantly right?? freezing rain is liquid rain that freezes at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 northwest NJ would be more of a snow event although alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temps will be in the 20's west of the city for a majority of the storm. This is going to catch a lot of people off guard unfortunately. yea west of the city will be even worse 30-33 should be the spread in the 5 Boroughs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Those stupid maps aren't taking into account that the entire column is warm above the surface. That's so strange that they have not even yet incorporated that into their maps, being that it is such a standard feature. How about stormvista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any idea what local schools will do tomorrow?what the hellbdo you think? Your question is pretty easy to answer, ice vs school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know, anything above 30 degrees I would agree with you. I'm not eager to find out what 20's and heavy rain looks like. Very bad. I was once in an icestorm like that in State College and it was very damaging, even though less than 0.50" of rain fell at that temperature. At 30 and above, a lot of rain runs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm in central middlesex county and the Nam just looks awful, we could be in the upper 20s with ZR. I was hoping it would come in a bit warmer than 12z so we could just get a couple inches and then rain 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here is your answer, anyone south of the NY State Border is IP or ZR or RN by 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 what the hellbdo you think? Your question is pretty easy to answer, ice vs school? We don't even know where he is. Could be LI could be Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's so strange that they have not even yet incorporated that into their maps, being that it is such a standard feature. How about stormvista? They assume 10:1 ratios and count sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They assume 10:1 ratios and count sleet as snow. But obviously freezing rain too right? Otherwise it's a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z FYI Wow, even for most of Long Island that's freezing rain and sleet still, when 0.5- 0.75" of precip has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So Is KJFK and sw Nass County going to get ice mainly or rain since even an inch o snow is not likely now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty funny this storm was going to be snow. And the one yesterday was going to be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 14z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For north shore folks, 18z NAM does not get the surface above freezing at Smithtown: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=40.88%2C-73.21&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h24&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=1024x768 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 14z Wow...keep them coming man this is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty funny this storm was going to be snow. And the one yesterday was going to be nothing. A few days ago this was going to cut to Toronto. Don't you remember that Leafs fan coming in here and trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They assume 10:1 ratios and count sleet as snow. If FZR is not in that "snow" assumption than maybe we get mostly sleet out this way and only some FZR at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The nam has been awful lately it's way too far north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, throughout the storm the 32F isotherm actually sinks further and further south!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The nam has been awful lately it's way too far north! It seems to fit consensus at this point. Most models are further north than 24 hours ago, some significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The nam has been awful lately it's way too far north! That might be a possibility as it did that with the last storm we have to keep a good eye on the HRRR and RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And 17z as this pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow, even for most of Long Island that's freezing rain and sleet still, when 0.5- 0.75" of precip has fallen. Even Monmouth cty gets fez rain, was hoping it would be just plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I personally think that around the city, it will be more of a sleet fest, then a freezing rain event. With almost no plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM has a supreme advantage in picking up the low level cold air and warm air aloft. It's a high resolution short range model. This is what it's supposed to be what it's most useful for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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