ILoveWinter Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Moderate size snow storm today (for many), moderate size snow storm (for many) on Wednesday, potential MECS/HECS on Sunday/Monday. We are so freaking spoiled, especially considering nearly all storms this winter have trended in our favor (knock wood). How will we cope when we only have 1 or possibly 0 storms to track?? I am def going to try to enjoy as much of this week as possible, could be quite epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seriously has Long Island ever been simultaneously under a winter storm warning AND a winter storm watch as we are now? I sure don't remember it. Maybe in 1994 but I don't recall when the WS Watch for the 2/11 event got issued, it may not have been til after the 2/8 storm was over since they were seperated by 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Maybe in 1994 but I don't recall when the WS Watch for the 2/11 event got issued, it may not have been til after the 2/8 storm was over since they were seperated by 3 days. Funny I was thinking of exactly the same possible exception but decided they probably did not overlap (Tuesday and Friday event I think.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Maybe in 1994 but I don't recall when the WS Watch for the 2/11 event got issued, it may not have been til after the 2/8 storm was over since they were seperated by 3 days. If tomorrow becomes a Warning and Sundays on, ( and I think it is ) that's 3 in 7 days and that has to be a 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Seriously has Long Island ever been simultaneously under a winter storm warning AND a winter storm watch as we are now? I sure don't remember it. There were a couple of events in mid January 1982 that might have necessitated it...IIRC, the first event put down heavy snow in NYC & the next night skipped NYC (more or less) but put down close to 10 inches on Long Island. I think those storms played a role in the downed airliner in the Potomac River. Might have been two separate waves of low pressure along a quasi stationary front east of the area...that was an unbelievably cold month nation wide...probably second only to January 1977 in the last 40 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This would be the first back to back 6"+ for NYC in 48 hrs since 94. And for the pattern to reload Sunday into Monday with the potential that is being shown pretty much unheard of. This could go down as the as the greatest triple crown snow week in NYC history. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html That shows just how lean the 70'd and 80's were too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nobody here mentioning that the GFS shows the same nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nobody here mentioning that the GFS shows the same nasty ice storm.How much ice for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That shows just how lean the 70'd and 80's were too. In the 80's, when I was a child/teen, my parents always told me how much more snow they remembered getting in the 60's. I always attributed it to (without researching it) to them being younger, leaner, shorter, and eager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I did not go over there to see what they were saying but I am fairly surprised to see PHL is not under a WSW for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In the 80's, when I was a child/teen, my parents always told me how much more snow they remembered getting in the 60's. I always attributed it to (without researching it) to them being younger, leaner, shorter, and eager.LOL, me too! I remember them saying too how the 93-94 winter was an old fashion one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Watch when the temps are lower than forecasted because of the thermal gradient and snow pack people will not be prepared! This will be a snow to major ice storm for many. Even a glaze of ice<0.10 Can disrupt travel in masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Watch when the temps are lower than forecasted because of the thermal gradient and snow pack people will not be prepared! This will be a snow to major ice storm for many. Even a glaze of ice<0.10 Can disrupt travel in masses Could easily be a lot more dangerous than today despite less snow. Nothing worse than a glaze over several inches of snow, especially if temps are below 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOL, me too! I remember them saying too how the 93-94 winter was an old fashion one. But they did not have as many 17+ blizzards; in the 70's a storm like today was a major story; the 78 blizzards were in the 17 inch range and no one remembered anything like it at the time. When 96 came, no one I knew had ever seen that kind of storm. What followed after 3 years of no snow, was a run of epic winters in the 2000's the likes of which I had never seen ( 94 excepted but a lot of that was ice and sleet ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Timing of the frozen precip looks just right to close schools again...my kids are jackpotting Every day will be made up I hope your schools have AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NYC decade snow averages...decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.91880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.81890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.81900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.21910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.61920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.11930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.71940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.61950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.71960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.71970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.31980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.81990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.82000-01 to 2009-10........T........T.....7.8......6.5.....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.52010-11 to 2013-14......0.7.....1.2.....7.3....15.4.......5.7.....2.8........T......33.0 as of 1/29/141870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.31980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 todays 8" or so snowfall pushes the February 2010's average to at least 6.3" and the annual to 33.6"...only the 1890's had a higher average but it's only a four year average...the 2010's will have the highest October average and so far January is the highest after four years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But they did not have as many 17+ blizzards; in the 70's a storm like today was a major story; the 78 blizzards were in the 17 inch range and no one remembered anything like it at the time. When 96 came, no one I knew had ever seen that kind of storm. What followed after 3 years of no snow, was a run of epic winters in the 2000's the likes of which I had never seen ( 94 excepted but a lot of that was ice and sleet ) Oh, sure. But they were telling me this in the 80's. Now they've adjusted. If it DOESN'T snow every week here in western CT, they think there is something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh, sure. But they were telling me this in the 80's. Now they've adjusted. If it DOESN'T snow every week here in western CT, they think there is something off. The 80's were lean for snow; I used to start flounder fishing the river by the end of Feb, and some winters the bays never iced and we fished all year. we certainly didn't have back to back storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NYC decade snow averages... decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total 1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9 1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8 1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8 1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2 1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6 1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1 1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7 1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6 1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7 1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7 1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3 1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8 1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8 2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T.....7.8......6.5.....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5 2010-11 to 2013-14......0.7.....1.2.....7.3....15.4.......5.7.....2.8........T......33.0 as of 1/29/14 1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3 1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4 todays 8" or so snowfall pushes the February 2010's average to at least 6.3" and the annual to 33.6"...only the 1890's had a higher average but it's only a four year average...the 2010's will have the highest October average and so far January is the highest after four years... Take out the Feb 83 blizzard, take out Jan 82 and April 6 82, and Jan 22 87, and your average from 1981-89 would be much lower, and more representative of just how snowless it was./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 18Z RGEM finally ran...marginally colder than the 12Z run in the 09-15Z window...does not appear to change LGA over til maybe 16Z or so when the event is beginning to wind down...shows snow NYC proper from 06-10Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 KNYC 17mm snow 3mm sleet 7mm freezing rain 5mm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take out the Feb 83 blizzard, take out Jan 82 and April 6 82, and Jan 22 87, and your average from 1981-89 would be much lower, and more representative of just how snowless it was./ I wonder how much the winter of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 really skewed the mean for the 90s decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I did not go over there to see what they were saying but I am fairly surprised to see PHL is not under a WSW for this event[/quote As well as Monmouth cty on north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wonder how much the winter of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 really skewed the mean for the 90s decade. I wonder how much the winter of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 really skewed the mean for the 90s decade. I wonder how much the winter of 1993-1994 and 1995-1996 really skewed the mean for the 90s decade. The Dec 30 2000 storm was the largest in five years. I don't know what this next storm will do but I am worried about ice and would rather not have any storm at all or all rain than ice. Ice is deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I did not go over there to see what they were saying but I am fairly surprised to see PHL is not under a WSW for this event[/quote As well as Monmouth cty on north! It seems like this should be at least a high advisory event from I-195 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take out the Feb 83 blizzard, take out Jan 82 and April 6 82, and Jan 22 87, and your average from 1981-89 would be much lower, and more representative of just how snowless it was./ take out 78 and 79 and the 1970's are worse...I've lived thru the 10" snowfall nine year drought from 1969 to 1978...Then a ten year drought from 1983 to 1993...The longest 10" snow drought since then is four years...1997 to 2000... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It seems like this should be at least a high advisory event from I-195 north. JM even we will have a warning with this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z RGEM snow in cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 JM even we will have a warning with this IMO. It's looking that way if 4-8" is their call and then ice. My point and click though only has 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's looking that way if 4-8" is their call and then ice. My point and click though only has 2". Matches up well lol. I like Upton's 4-8" then ice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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