IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is weaker and south. Colder solution from 12z. If you compare it to 12z the secondary develops in nearly the identical position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is not colder aloft. 850's to 80 by hour 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If you compare it to 12z the secondary develops in nearly the identical position. Primary is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is colder at all levels. Weaker primary and stronger secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is not colder aloft. 850's to 80 by hour 15. Surface is colder @ 17 than 12z for nyc and 850s aswell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A 90kt+ 500mb jet passes right over the area. Precip is going to come in robust. Hour 18 for your viewing pleasure. Will delete in a few minutes. Had to delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM is not colder aloft. 850's to 80 by hour 15. incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is colder at all levels. Weaker primary and stronger secondary. The surface is colder which does you no good because the 850mb still warms rapidly. All this means is more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 incorrect. Look at the graphic I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 incorrect. it was but the dynamic cooling shoved it south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow ice storm surface is below freezing till about 23-24 with heavy precip @ nyc (the 0 line does not want to budge) - it looks like 850s hug the LIE up till 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually for the lower Hudson valley this run is better. But for southern areas it's more IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If this graphic doesn't make you puke IDK what will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually for the lower Hudson valley this run is better. But for southern areas it's more IP/ZR. Still changes to plain rain on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would flip to Ice Storm Warnings for a lot of the area. I really would. This could end up being next to zero snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still changes to plain rain on LI Depends on where you are on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 wow that is an extremely strong CAD feature on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Over an inch of QPF for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still changes to plain rain on LI Low res models aren't going to pick up on the low level cold. All the hi-res models are significantly colder than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Surface looks like it finally gets above freezing @26 in nyc but barely and then below again @ 27 lol this will be such a close call - precip is moving out already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Surface looks like it finally gets above freezing @26 in nyc but barely The city nudges above freezing right around mid-afternoon, but the damage is already done by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Precip shuts off at 24ish. Not much falls after that KNYC doesn't go above while precip is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The city nudges above freezing right around mid-afternoon, but the damage is already done by then. Yea seriously what a cold run at the surface, that would be devastating. This is a tough forecast it looks like it will come down to about 5-10 miles or so with the possibility for an epic ice storm or just rain. The only saving grace will be this is a storm with temps in the low 30s and ending during the day so the sun should have some radiating impact on hard surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So you guys are sayin nyc is going to get freezing rain but it's going to melt once it falls right, it's not going to freeze to the surface instantly right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh geez....weatherbell snow maps are showing 10-12 inches snow. Since we know this is NOT snow, that means it is still ALL FROZEN for us. all frozen rain ?!???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yea seriously what a cold run at the surface, that would be devastating. This is a tough forecast it looks like it will come down to about 5-10 miles or so with the possibility for an epic ice storm or just rain. The only saving grace will be this is an ice storm with temps in the low 30s and during the day Temps will be in the 20's west of the city for a majority of the storm. This is going to catch a lot of people off guard unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I still believe the rates will cut down on ice accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh geez....weatherbell snow maps are showing 10-12 inches snow. Since we know this is NOT snow, that means it is still ALL FROZEN for us. all frozen rain ?!???? Those stupid maps aren't taking into account that the entire column is warm above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any idea what local schools will do tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Big question for my area (Sussex County) is how much falls as sleet vs FZR. Guidance seems to be showing 2-5" of snow and then over to sleet and then how long before we flip to FZR. What is the key temp level that you look at to differentiate FZR from sleet? Certainly would much rather have extended period of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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