BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Continue 287 discussion here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15998-pet-peeve-north-and-west-of-287/ thanks for doing that - that conversation was almost unbearable.. I think a model blend is best way to go for now until SR models get into range.. 1-3" seems fair for immediate NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 FYI: Saw this in the New England thread. NWS Boston @NWSBoston 2h Tech: 12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues resulting in a stronger mid level low and likely too far N with warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This thread is about tomorrow. 32-33 was the magic number in our region wide isothermal snow bomb, but that is irrelevant for this discussion.No. This is exactly the storm I'm talking about. Models were showing almost completely uniform temps across the island earlier yesterday for this storm...which is very relevant to what you were talking about.Anyway, that was what the models were showing yesterday so I guess who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Okay here we go, Euro is running. Will update as information rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rjay, what town are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Rjay, what town are you in? North Merrick. There's usually a difference of a few degrees in these type of events from my area to yours. You are usually a few degrees cooler. I was just stating the models showed relatively uniform temps on LI yesterday. They hopefully got more specific today or else they are useless in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thank u. That was one of the most nauseating conversations on here. Continue 287 discussion here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/15998-pet-peeve-north-and-west-of-287/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 850mb temps actually cool between 00z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 850mb temps above freezing all the way to High Point, NJ by hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 850mb temps warm fast, not much front end snow at all. Especially south of I-80. Secondary looks to track south of where the GFS had it so the low levels should stay colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yup, big ice storm for the I-80 corridor. The city is real close. Surface freezing line stays near Yonkers, then down towards 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Somewhat surprisingly the snow maps show about 5-6" front end dump north of 78. 6-8" for the LHV and far northern NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yup, big ice storm for the I-80 corridor. The city is real close. Surface freezing line stays near Yonkers, then down towards 80. When you say ice storm. You are talking about frezzig rain of 0.50 or greater correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That is different from what I saw. What's relevant to my point is that LI is not a single point and does not have uniform weather. Many here seem not to have grasped that. Sounds like you are having difficulty with it too.Yea ok. Read what I wrote above. You talk down to people way too often on here. I've lived on LI my whole life and am fully aware during certain set ups, what the North Shore experiences is is WAY different then what the south shore sees. You don't seem to grasp that I was just stating what a few models were regurgitating yesterday. I didn't agree with them. I felt the way you feel about "people like me".Very sorry for the banter guys...I just hate when people act like Mike Francesca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.75"+ SW sections. 1"+ from the city north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It will absorb all the moisture tomorrow and then freeze like concrete at night. Flat roofs could have problems if we get too much rain in coastal sections adding water content to the snowpack. I have a snow covered flat roof above two second story bedrooms. No way I'm going up to clean it. I'm very worried about how much QPF is expected tonight...and on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 When you say ice storm. You are talking about frezzig rain of 0.50 or greater correct. It's hard to tell exactly how much falls as SN/IP/ZR/RN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0.75"+ SW sections. 1"+ from the city north and east. Not to be that guy, but I'm at work so I can't really look. When you can, can you give a rundown of SN, IP, ZR, etc. for different areas. I'll do IMBY and ask about north shore of long island...Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Getting warmer this run...but snow maps still spit out 4-8" for the area, although that factors in sleet and probably freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There is definitely a period of time with 850's above freezing, 2M temps in the 20's and moderate to heavy precipitation falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 850mb temps above freezing all the way to High Point, NJ by hour 24. ?? wrong. storm vista map shows 850 basically going acroos northern morris at 24 hrs. at 30 hrs 850s still below hp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Somewhat surprisingly the snow maps show about 5-6" front end dump north of 78. 6-8" for the LHV and far northern NNJ. Sounds better then a few recent runs or like the 12 Z GFS. Nice event for the NW crowd AKA my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some of the accumulated precipitation is pure rain for The south Shore of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ?? wrong. storm vista map shows 850 basically going acroos northern morris at 24 hrs. at 30 hrs 850s still below hp Look at the 850mb temp graphic by itself. The 850mb freezing line by that hour is up to High Point, or just south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Getting warmer this run...but snow maps still spit out 4-8" for the area, although that factors in sleet and probably freezing rain Just don't see the majority of us getting more than 1-3" of snow unless north of I80 and nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not to be that guy, but I'm at work so I can't really look. When you can, can you give a rundown of SN, IP, ZR, etc. for different areas. I'll do IMBY and ask about north shore of long island...Thanks Long Island is 90% pure rain Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cold Rainstorm Monmouth County Hour 24 850`s already plus 3 Surface 33 . Looks like 0 for us this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Cold Rainstorm Monmouth County Hour 24 850`s already plus 3 Surface 33 . Looks like 0 for us this time around Yeah this really had no chance for CNJ/SNJ as the low redevelops over southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Long Island is 90% pure rain Euro verbatim. Probably shows 33-34 at the surface as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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