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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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Spoken like a north shore guy :)

Seriously, I saw many posts in here about LI is 33 and rain and wondered which part of the largest island off the continental US was 33. Every square mile of it? Ocean front or 30 miles north of the Ocean? The entire 120 mile length? LI at 40.6N or LI at 41.1N?

The "LI is a single point in space" posts seem to come mainly from NJ posters (excluding yourself and some others)

Actually yes most of LI was 33 at the warmest during the day yesterday on many models. North shore, south shore...east end was near 34 on the south shore, 33 on the north shore. I haven't seen any models today as I am working
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Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287."  The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters.  287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester.  What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80.  I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. 

 

Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath.  He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet.  His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston.   

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246

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Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287."  The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters.  287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester.  What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80.  I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. 

 

Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath.  He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet.  His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston.   

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246

North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown.

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Still hate the completely non-specific usage of "north and west of 287."  The phrase should be banished from use by all mets and posters.  287 runs a loop from Perth Amboy, mostly west to Somerville, then mostly NNE to Mahwah, then ESE to White Plains and then Port Chester.  What most folks actually mean when they're saying that is north and west of the portion of 287 north of 80, and north of 287 in NY. None of them are usually referring to any part of 287 south of 78 or even 80.  I get that it takes too many syllables to say all that, but it's still sloppy and inaccurate language. 

 

Anyway, DT came out with his first guess, which is a tad warmer than the NWS, generally speaking, with less snow and more sleet/ZR in just about every swath.  He's worried about a major ice storm for DC/Balt/Philly and from about Trenton to JFK and points S/E of that line, with some ice in the swath to the NW of that line, too, but more sleet.  His all-snow line is essentially the PA-NY border over to the MA-CT border to Boston.   

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-first-guess-feb-5-6-ice-storm-threat-high-for-some/642966822417246

 

 

DT 6-10 is way too far north, I never liked this forecasts.  He was WAYYY off for yesterdays storm.

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there is a ton of snow on the trees here. it has yet to fall off, blow off, melt off, or F-off.

really hope freezing rain is limited down here.

Mines melting pretty good now. Sun and near freezing temps doing the job. But there's a lot of it to melt. I don't know if I've ever seen that much snow on the trees. Maybe 2/10/10

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Actually yes most of LI was 33 at the warmest during the day yesterday on many models. North shore, south shore...east end was near 34 on the south shore, 33 on the north shore. I haven't seen any models today as I am working

 

This thread is about tomorrow.  32-33 was the magic number in our region wide isothermal snow bomb, but that is irrelevant for this discussion.

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Usually the case but it pretty much enforces the idea snow will be hard to come by most places

how bad do you think the ice will be? if we get a decent accumulation of sleet (which looks very possible) to cool the ground and on top of that zr, it could get quite ugly. 

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North and West of I-287 generally refers to the stretch that runs from Mahwah to Morristown.

I know that's what many think, but if one isn't specific, it's left up to interpretation.  Craig Allen usually says north and west of the 287/80 intersection, which is perfect, but I've heard some include north of the portion of 287 from Mahway to Port Chester and I'm certain nobody is even thinking about 287 from 78 down to Perth Amboy, but don't you think there are people in that area that think they're included in N/W of 287? I know there are, since I live in that area and have asked many people what they think of when they hear it and many think of Somerville or Clinton or even Plainfield (it is north and west of the southern section of 287). 

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I know that's what many think, but if one isn't specific, it's left up to interpretation. Craig Allen usually says north and west of the 287/80 intersection, which is perfect, but I've heard some include north of the portion of 287 from Mahway to Port Chester and I'm certain nobody is even thinking about 287 from 78 down to Perth Amboy, but don't you think there are people in that area that think they're included in N/W of 287? I know there are, since I live in that area and have asked many people what they think of when they hear it and many think of Somerville or Clinton or even Plainfield (it is north and west of the southern section of 287).

When people say N/W of 287 I assume places west of 287 and north of 78.

This discussion should really be moved to a thread that's just for this topic. I'll bump it up as soon as I can find it.

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No it doesnt. You IMBY people don't realize that 287 runs through Rockland and Westchester in NY? It is a good line to use, because north of 287 has a tendency to see much more snow than areas to the south.

What is a rockland or a westchester ? Lol it is true though.....all areas north and west of 287 generally are more frozen in these storms and can get significantly more snow many times

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