IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ZR probs based on top ten analogs over the east through 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can you please talk about other area other than yours and NYC. This board does cover other areas Thanks Excuse me? You can also refer to the PHL subforum considering your just as close to Philly as you are to the city. If you have a question and need a more knowledgeable posters' opinion, you can simply ask him. He does a fine job. To answer an obvious question however, this is a soaker for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ZR probs based on top ten analogs over the east through 36 hours Scary map right there ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol one person says it's the coldest, snowiest model and another says it looks very warm. Now I know the frustration of when we (myself included) post bad model interpretations. But yes, it doesn't look like any extremely cold/snowy solution here. Middle ground with some snow and wintry precip before the rain. Hopefully not significant icing here What was bad about what I posted? NYC is warmer than what's progged in it's warning right now. All I said was this was colder than the NAM, but still warm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ZR probs based on top ten analogs over the east through 36 hours Like I said , YIKES @ all of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 gfs soundings for my area of nj has me all snow through hr 24 going over probably hr 25. seems like .5-.7 of precip. mt hollys snowmaps would look fine according to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS has more easterly winds in low-levels. That allows NYC and LI to warm up faster tomorrow for plain rain, after some snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 gfs soundings for my area of nj has me all snow through hr 24 going over probably hr 25. seems like .5-.7 of precip. mt hollys snowmaps would look fine according to gfs Beat me to it. We have to HOPE the GFS (and Euro) are right up our way. There is so much snow on the trees already and a front end dump of at least 4" is on the table regardless of warming. The more snow upfront, the better. I also think we'd flip to more sleet up here than ZR if that's the case. Fingers crossed. I don't have a generator (new to the area), but contemplating buying one today. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 00z ECMWF was not pretty. I wouldn't exactly put it in the camp of the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Even if it's plain rain you won't have to worry about it killing your snowpack if it's 33-34F. Also keep in mind that many surfaces could be at or below freezing even if the air temp is just above so there could still be slick spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What was bad about what I posted? NYC is warmer than what's progged in it's warning right now. All I said was this was colder than the NAM, but still warm for NYC. That wasn't aimed at you or anyone....it's just funny during the model runs how many different opinions you can get if you don't actually have access to the data. One person saying "huge hit NYC tons of snow" followed by another saying "NYC mainly rain, snow NW". I can understand the frustration of a lurker who might be coming here just for some info ahead of the local news forecasts. But hey, I do the same thing during model runs but am trying to keep it to a minimum after last nights debacle with the GFS showing a storm that didn't look like it was going to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 00z ECMWF was not pretty. I wouldn't exactly put it in the camp of the best case scenario. IMBY it was. More snow than the ominous NAM. Bottom line is that this is a close call for many between a snow/sleet storm and a rather horrific ice storm. Not trying to argue, just trying to analyze like everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Even if it's plain rain you won't have to worry about it killing your snowpack if it's 33-34F. Also keep in mind that many surfaces could be at or below freezing even if the air temp is just above so there could still be slick spots. It will absorb all the moisture tomorrow and then freeze like concrete at night. Flat roofs could have problems if we get too much rain in coastal sections adding water content to the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That wasn't aimed at you or anyone....it's just funny during the model runs how many different opinions you can get if you don't actually have access to the data. One person saying "huge hit NYC tons of snow" followed by another saying "NYC mainly rain, snow NW". I can understand the frustration of a lurker who might be coming here just for some info ahead of the local news forecasts. But hey, I do the same thing during model runs but am trying to keep it to a minimum after last nights debacle with the GFS showing a storm that didn't look like it was going to It's cool. It sometimes takes guts to post any analysis on here b/c you can get attacked quickly. I try my best for those who aren't able to see it (which I always love when I'm traveling, on phone, etc.). And, mistakes are how we learn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Even if it's plain rain you won't have to worry about it killing your snowpack if it's 33-34F. Also keep in mind that many surfaces could be at or below freezing even if the air temp is just above so there could still be slick spots. If temps stay below 35, very little snowpack will be lost and the snow will just soak any rain up and freeze it into concrete. No one seems like they will get above 35 tomorrow. Even the immediate shores should be around 33-34 and hopefully can get 2-4" of front end sleet/snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShakeNBake22z Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Due to the solid snowpack and brutal Jan cold we had the sea surface temps are extremely cold. Don't think an east wind will bring temp over 32 in any surrounding NYC areas. Upper levels absolutely but surface will hold on.my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The GFS has more easterly winds in low-levels. That allows NYC and LI to warm up faster tomorrow for plain rain, after some snow and sleet. warm up to what ? The water temps up here are only a couple degrees above 32 - might take some time to warm up air just above that water is probably a few degrees colder and the warmer air won't penetrate very far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 rgem http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) tweeted at 10:50 AM on Tue, Feb 04, 2014:Tech: 12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues resulting in a stronger mid level low and likely too far N with warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like this is going to be snow north of the LIE, and more ice, mix, and rain south of the LIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NWS Boston (@NWSBoston) tweeted at 10:50 AM on Tue, Feb 04, 2014: Tech: 12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues resulting in a stronger mid level low and likely too far N with warmer air. Not buying that with the RGEM being the same...the mid-level WAA on this storm is pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 One thing is that it seems the snowmaps that printed out 4 or more inches of snow were all of the frozen precipitation combined. The best call for most of our area would probably be earthlight's 2-4" call. If I had to make a call, it would be on the lower end of that, of around 3" for NE NJ and barely 2" for NYC. These systems that are warm at mid levels usually result in a quick hit of some snow to rain, minimizing the sleet and especially the freezing rain. It can happen, just very rare (less rare north of 287 in NJ).....hopefully we do not get a ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like this is going to be snow north of the LIE, and more ice, mix, and rain south of the LIE. I don't think anyone on LI sees more than 1-2" of snow from this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i would assume the rgem is combining sleet and snow here? http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc that looks to still be a decent amount of snow NW of I-287... on the order of 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't think anyone on LI sees more than 1-2" of snow from this... I'd take that bet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that looks to still be a decent amount of snow NW of I-287... on the order of 6-8 inches. The RGEM map looks the most legit to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that looks to still be a decent amount of snow NW of I-287... on the order of 6-8 inches. yea it looked completly different when i first opened, i was looking at an old version. when i refreshed it looks fine. almost like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM map looks the most legit to me yea i had to refresh the page. looks just like gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UKMET looks cold as well, as best I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 UKMET for 12Z tomorrow morning at EWR. That's a snow profile if my eyes don't deceive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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