IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going to break down the 4k 12z NAM precip types as best as I can without posting paid maps. Initial 1-2hrs of snow hours 19-20. Hour 21 IP north of I-80. Snow hanging on in Orange County. Plain rain Sandy Hook south. Monmouth County is 99% plain rain. Hour 22, IP now up to KSWF. City flipping to ZR. Most of the I-80 corridor still IP. Hour 23, city remains ZR, so is most of Long Island, outside of southern Suffolk and the twin forks. Hour 24, IP holding north of 80. Now well up into the LHV. City and Nassau all ZR. Hour 25, now the surface is making some progress, ZR line right over the city. Still mostly IP from MMU north. South of that ZR. Somerset County getting it the worst, along with Western NJ and eastern PA. Hour 26, all of NNJ is ZR. The city is ZR too. Hour 27, all of NNJ is ZR. The city is ZR too, Nassau flipping back to ZR. Hour 28, 90% of the area is ZR. Monmouth County only exception, and extreme southern LI. Hour 29, moving out. City never gets above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going to break down the 4k 12z NAM precip types as best as I can without posting paid maps. Initial 1-2hrs of snow hours 19-20. Hour 21 IP north of I-80. Snow hanging on in Orange County. Plain rain Sandy Hook south. Monmouth County is 99% plain rain. Hour 22, IP now up to KSWF. City flipping to ZR. Most of the I-80 corridor still IP. Hour 23, city remains ZR, so is most of Long Island, outside of southern Suffolk and the twin forks. Hour 24, IP holding north of 80. Now well up into the LHV. City and Nassau all ZR. Hour 25, now the surface is making some progress, ZR line right over the city. Still mostly IP from MMU north. South of that ZR. Somerset County getting it the worst, along with Western NJ and eastern PA. Hour 26, all of NNJ is ZR. The city is ZR too. Hour 27, all of NNJ is ZR. The city is ZR too, Nassau flipping back to ZR. Hour 28, 90% of the area is ZR. Monmouth County only exception, and extreme southern LI. Hour 29, moving out. City never gets above freezing. just watch this loop...its easier http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM appears to have ticked warmer...less than 10 mm snow on NYC meteogram and mostly rain thereafter. Only 3mm of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 just watch this loop...its easier http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/cloop.html what's the pink? Sleet or fzra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM appears to have ticked warmer...less than 10 mm snow on NYC meteogram and mostly rain thereafter. Only 3mm of ZR. Wonder how it looks in terms of ice in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM appears to have ticked warmer...less than 10 mm snow on NYC meteogram and mostly rain thereafter. Only 3mm of ZR. The secondary development seems to be inching north over time-this could be enough to warm most in the city and coast to above freezing and for winds to shift to near easterly for a while. This system is following the very predictable pattern for SWFEs to trend north in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The RGEM seems to show more sleet for NYC...I'm not sure what the orange color on ptype is but may be FZRAPL...it changes JFK over at 13Z and LGA around 14-15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 just watch this loop...its easier http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/cloop.html raritan river in nj is the dividing line for all frozen to the north and rain to the south this is one of the common geographical dividing lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM has the initial shot of snow, still coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is probably a weenie thing to say, but it's funny how this storm parallels the storm pack in Jan 1996 that preceded the big blizzard a few days later, something that's also possible a few days from tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Believe me you dont want a sleetfest...its impossible to move and shovel..root for the nam and hope for a swift changeover from snow to rain with little accumulation I don't believe you. With lousy mid levels, sleet is the best possible outcome. I luvs me some sleet. You can keep the ZR and the R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GFS looks a lot colder than the NAM. Surface and 850's below freezing in NYC at hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Much Colder on the GFS. Model Mayhem only a short 15 hours or so away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS going to be the snowiest model so far of the 12z suite north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At 24, it's astonoshing the difference between the NAM and GFS. GFS is far colder at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Much Colder on the GFS. Model Mayhem only a short 15 hours or so away... Almost impossible not to with a complicated storm like this. 1 degree C difference has huge implications on ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The low is further north than the NAM on the GFS so the surface warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The low is further north than the NAM on the GFS so the surface warms. Not before several inches of snow fall in almost all of NNJ. Plenty of sleet/ZR after that... NYC does look warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Jeez lookout all of NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2-4" front end dump. 4-6" far NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 QPF totals look around the same as the NAM. All areas at least 0.75"+ with southern areas 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not before several inches of snow fall in almost all of NNJ. Plenty of sleet/ZR after that... NYC does look warm though.Lol one person says it's the coldest, snowiest model and another says it looks very warm. Now I know the frustration of when we (myself included) post bad model interpretations. But yes, it doesn't look like any extremely cold/snowy solution here. Middle ground with some snow and wintry precip before the rain. Hopefully not significant icing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Precip ending as drizzle on the RGEM for NNJ will not take away from FZR or the front end snow, but rather make any snow on the ground heavier , along with the accumulation of ice. This is not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We have a very solid fresh snowpack in place and it looks like we'll add to it on the front end dump. If anything I think the GFS would be more ZR in areas that the NAM has as IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 still going with 3-5 inches for LI then a period ZR-rain In the end. think its going be colder even on LI. by Thursday the snowpack will be like concrete that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where is the worst ZR threat on the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can you please talk about other area other than yours and NYC. This board does cover other areas Thanks This is all rain for your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In situations like this u have to break long island up into NS SS. North shore will hold onto to more ice. The surface on the NS will run 2 degrees colder I'm storms like this. It's just there climo. Few degrees will matter tomrrw. Careful not to lump all of long island together Spoken like a north shore guy Seriously, I saw many posts in here about LI is 33 and rain and wondered which part of the largest island off the continental US was 33. Every square mile of it? Ocean front or 30 miles north of the Ocean? The entire 120 mile length? LI at 40.6N or LI at 41.1N? The "LI is a single point in space" posts seem to come mainly from NJ posters (excluding yourself and some others) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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