NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that's fzra Yea, that's definite a CLEAR FRZA signal. Man, this is going to be bad. If I had to go out on a limb, id also say this may be the most historic ice storm for many people along I-80 in quite some time . Be safe guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 In situations like this u have to break long island up into NS SS. North shore will hold onto to more ice. The surface on the NS will run 2 degrees colder I'm storms like this. It's just there climo. Few degrees will matter tomrrw. Careful not to lump all of long island together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gonna be tough to get much ice accretion with temps near freezing and mod-heavy rain. Latent heat folks.....temps would need to be in the low 20s to see ice accretion with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Bye bye 5-10" Snow wont be the problem heavy Sleet/Freezing Rain seems to be the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol hi res NAM snowmap on weatherbell shows 8-10" of snow here in NNJ/NYC. Anyone know why it is clearly SO wrong ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've never seen a Winter Storm Warning and a model run be SO disparate this close to a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gonna be tough to get much ice accretion with temps near freezing and mod-heavy rain. Latent heat folks.....temps would need to be in the low 20s to see ice accretion with heavy rain. Id say the same if I didn't have an 8" solid wet snowpack... This one may be for the books for many people, in terms of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yikes hires_ptype_acc_nyc_9.png All freezing rain even here in Brooklyn? WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gonna be tough to get much ice accretion with temps near freezing and mod-heavy rain. Latent heat folks.....temps would need to be in the low 20s to see ice accretion with heavy rain. I know I said this in the PHL subforum and I do hold to it. That said, there will be folks far enough below 30 to make this a problem. I just want to be sure nobody is thinking we're going to have a full inch of ice encasing everything out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm very baffled by that. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Well looking at what earthlight posted with precip types....the weatherbell maps are CLEARLY counting the freezing rain as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If temps are 31-32 with rain then we should be be fine, but if they do end up colder which is a strong possibility then it'll be awful. The snowpack could also play a role with keeping surface temps cold while we warm rapidly aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm very baffled by that. Sent from my HTC PH39100 first its one of those weenie snow maps. Secondly doesnt it count towards ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If temps are 31-32 with rain then we should be be fine, but if they do end up colder which is a strong possibility then it'll be awful. The snowpack could also play a role with keeping surface temps cold while we warm rapidly aloft.I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Well I think at this point it's a matter of whether or not it will be freezing rain, or rain. I'd much prefer rain. The idea of a ice storm might sound exciting, but once we're in it, with no power, and extremely hazardous roads, it won't be fun at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM is even warmer at 850 and plenty cold at the surface. By the onset of precip, the 850mb line is already north of 80 with the surface over 95. Edit: The surface is actually SE of 95. East of JFK. I'm starting to think there could be a period of freezing rain down here and I'm not looking forward to it at all. With the wet snow still on trees, that could deliver a ton of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Well I think at this point it's a matter of whether or not it will be freezing rain, or rain. I'd much prefer rain. The idea of a ice storm might sound exciting, but once we're in it, with no power, and extremely hazardous roads, it won't be fun at all I know. It's not fun at all. I went through 3 Major Ice Storms and they were horrible. I'm just thinking about a certain devastating factor about this storm.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Its just the fact that the trees all around here are still LOADED with wet snow , resulting in many saggings trees already. Putting a glaze around the already stagnant snow is a HUGE expedited factor of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll wait for GFS next hour, but the coastal front on the NAM stalls out between Sunrise HWY and Northern State in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Its just the fact that the trees all around here are still LOADED with wet snow , resulting in many saggings trees already. Putting a glaze around the already stagnant snow is a HUGE expedited factor of power outages. The snow on the trees are already melting out here. Sent from my HTC PH39100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's roughly a 14 hour event on the 4k NAM for most areas, except for the LHV which sees the initial snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The snow on the trees are already melting out here. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Precip is expected to start by midnight . Unless your snows are going to completely melt off the trees before then, I don't understand why you commented this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's roughly a 14 hour event on the 4k NAM for most areas, except for the LHV which sees the initial snow. how is Sussex County looking on the 4k for snow vs ice. sorry on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NOAA still has Central Suffolk for 2-4" of snow tonight with another 1-3" tomorrow morning followed by freezing rain. From the looks of the models...is this going to change to all freezing rain? That would be devastating - really hope it's either a mix or all rain over a freezing rain disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 how is Sussex County looking on the 4k for snow vs ice. sorry on phone. By hours 25-26 850's are above freezing with about another 3-5 hrs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The NAM has NYC below freezing through 15-16z and only creeps up to 33 by 18z before a hard freeze at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 By hours 25-26 850's are above freezing with about another 3-5 hrs to go. lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NOAA still has Central Suffolk for 2-4" of snow tonight with another 1-3" tomorrow morning followed by freezing rain. From the looks of the models...is this going to change to all freezing rain? That would be devastating - really hope it's either a mix or all rain over a freezing rain disaster. I doubt that's happening. Our one chance at much snow is the snow hitting like a wall and overcoming what initial warmth there is for a time. If that doesn't happen there will be a lot more sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The snow on the trees are already melting out here. Sent from my HTC PH39100 Oh wow, now I see. Your located a good 25 miles east of me. Im in NE NJ , Bergen Cty here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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