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February 4th-6th Storm Threat Discussion


Sn0waddict

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In situations like this u have to break long island up into NS SS. North shore will hold onto to more ice. The surface on the NS will run 2 degrees colder I'm storms like this. It's just there climo. Few degrees will matter tomrrw. Careful not to lump all of long island together

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Gonna be tough to get much ice accretion with temps near freezing and mod-heavy rain. Latent heat folks.....temps would need to be in the low 20s to see ice accretion with heavy rain.

Id say the same if I didn't have an 8" solid wet snowpack...

 

This one may be for the books for many people, in terms of ice.

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Gonna be tough to get much ice accretion with temps near freezing and mod-heavy rain. Latent heat folks.....temps would need to be in the low 20s to see ice accretion with heavy rain.

I know I said this in the PHL subforum and I do hold to it.  That said, there will be folks far enough below 30 to make this a problem.  I just want to be sure nobody is thinking we're going to have a full inch of ice encasing everything out there.

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If temps are 31-32 with rain then we should be be fine, but if they do end up colder which is a strong possibility then it'll be awful. The snowpack could also play a role with keeping surface temps cold while we warm rapidly aloft.

I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

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I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

Well I think at this point it's a matter of whether or not it will be freezing rain, or rain. I'd much prefer rain. The idea of a ice storm might sound exciting, but once we're in it, with no power, and extremely hazardous roads, it won't be fun at all
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12z NAM is even warmer at 850 and plenty cold at the surface. By the onset of precip, the 850mb line is already north of 80 with the surface over 95.

 

Edit: The surface is actually SE of 95. East of JFK.

I'm starting to think there could be a period of freezing rain down here and I'm not looking forward to it at all. With the wet snow still on trees, that could deliver a ton of power outages.

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I wonder if the snowpack will get a light glazing before the heavy precip starts? That could really drop the surface temps.

Sent from my HTC PH39100

Well I think at this point it's a matter of whether or not it will be freezing rain, or rain. I'd much prefer rain. The idea of a ice storm might sound exciting, but once we're in it, with no power, and extremely hazardous roads, it won't be fun at all


I know. It's not fun at all. I went through 3 Major Ice Storms and they were horrible. I'm just thinking about a certain devastating factor about this storm.

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Its just the fact that the trees all around here are still LOADED with wet snow , resulting in many saggings trees already. Putting a glaze around the already stagnant snow is a HUGE expedited factor of power outages.

The snow on the trees are already melting out here.

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NOAA still has Central Suffolk for 2-4" of snow tonight with another 1-3" tomorrow morning followed by freezing rain. 

 

From the looks of the models...is this going to change to all freezing rain?  That would be devastating - really hope it's either a mix or all rain over a freezing rain disaster. 

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NOAA still has Central Suffolk for 2-4" of snow tonight with another 1-3" tomorrow morning followed by freezing rain. 

 

From the looks of the models...is this going to change to all freezing rain?  That would be devastating - really hope it's either a mix or all rain over a freezing rain disaster. 

I doubt that's happening. Our one chance at much snow is the snow hitting like a wall and overcoming what initial warmth there is for a time. If that doesn't happen there will be a lot more sleet/freezing rain.

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