Morris Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What time is snow supposed to start in Albany? I might have to drive. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Believe me you dont want a sleetfest...its impossible to move and shovel..root for the nam and hope for a swift changeover from snow to rain with little accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where and when snow does fall to start the ratios are going to be pretty terrible. The coldest H5 temps get on the Euro are near -4C and that's NW of 287 before they quickly move above freezing. Probably looking at 6:1 or 4:1 at best. Maybe some areas get ~0.25" frozen? That's 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will root for whatever adds 4-6 inches of fresh snow to Long island's snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hmmm... Im here in Bergen Cty, right along I-80 .. Not to sure at ALL about that WSW, I highly think Ice Storm Warnings should have been issued for the first time in quite awhile. With a last minute stronger 850mb WAA signal coming in on recent models, yet surface temps below freezing, this thing is SCREAMING FRZ , NOT IP. We shall see... Although getting quite concerned at the seemingly low anticipated forecast of only a tenth of an inch of ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM is even warmer at 850 and plenty cold at the surface. By the onset of precip, the 850mb line is already north of 80 with the surface over 95. Edit: The surface is actually SE of 95. East of JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will root for whatever adds 4-6 inches of fresh snow to Long island's snowpack This has virtually no chance of happening unless the WAA is being way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM is even warmer at 850 and plenty cold at the surface. By the onset of precip, the 850mb line is already north of 80 with the surface over 95. Edit: The surface is actually SE of 95. East of JFK. Ice Storm! Nuff Said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I will root for whatever adds 4-6 inches of fresh snow to Long island's snowpack prayers would be the way to go then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hour 24 transfer to the coast, low develops right over southern NJ. Major ice storm for NYC to the southern portions of Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The city hangs in the lower 30's while up to 0.50" of QPF has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Horrific ice storm for most of NNJ. Probably the worst in my lifetime. 20's and heavy freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z NAM is even warmer at 850 and plenty cold at the surface. By the onset of precip, the 850mb line is already north of 80 with the surface over 95. Edit: The surface is actually SE of 95. East of JFK. This Is getting quite scary to say the least. The warmer 850 trends while surface stays below 0, the higher the signal for FRZ as opposed to IP is. We just received 8 solid inches here yesterday. What happens when u throw perhaps another fresh 2-4" along with upwards of .25"-.75" of Ice? This thing spells HUGE trouble. Im talking trouble as downed trees, power outages, accidents in every which direction. One model output showed a very alarming .90" accretion of Ice for the Newark station. Mind you guys, there is 8" of wet snow outside already along all the power lines , and on all the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the city and Long Island are okay. They are probably 32-33 when the heavy precip arrives. Just inland is a far different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's just one model run, lets pray that it's too cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At hour 27 the surface freezing line gets to about KMMU and Rt.287 in Bergan County. Over an inch of QPF has fallen by that hour. 0.75"+ NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 OK, so not a lot of snow on Long Island but not all wet either, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Huge spread in temps in short distances, will play a major role tonight/tomorrow... Hoboken at 23 - Morristown at 11 --- I think everyone is smart enough to decipher what I'm getting at... It won't matter that much because those locations will mix out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 4k NAM has an initial shot of snow for the Lower Hudson Valley before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At hour 27 the surface freezing line gets to about KMMU and Rt.287 in Bergan County. Over an inch of QPF has fallen by that hour. 0.75"+ NW. Lets keep in mind though the snowcover we have may seriously keep surface temps on the cooler side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the city and Long Island are okay. They are probably 32-33 when the heavy precip arrives. Just inland is a far different story. agreed especially for the city itself.. you need to be in upper twenties almost for freezing rain to really have an impact with all the urban heating.. even by me it would be tough to get an ice storm in hoboken.. 15 miles west... an entirely different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lets keep in mind though the snowcover we have may seriously keep surface temps on the cooler side. I'm having a hard time finding any reason to believe that snow is the main threat with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This would make for a disastrous morning commute and I would go a couple degrees lower than the Nam shows at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm having a hard time finding any reason to believe that snow is the main threat with this one. Its going to be the ice, but I think that the change over to plain rain will save long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm having a hard time finding any reason to believe that snow is the main threat with this one. Yea snow cover wont do much for 850s...we have to keep an eye on the temps today vs the model forcasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at the 4k NAM, 850mb temps go above freezing at hour 20, which is basically 2AM. By hour 21 they are +4 to +8 C in NYC. 925mb temps are actually considerably colder. -4 to -8C and actually cooling for a period north of I-80. I wonder if that column is more supportive of sleet than freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hr 25 simulated radar has 45dbz+ echos over NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 agreed especially for the city itself.. you need to be in upper twenties almost for freezing rain to really have an impact with all the urban heating.. even by me it would be tough to get an ice storm in hoboken.. 15 miles west... an entirely different story Im exactly 15 miles NW of you. Pretty eerie picture comes to mind of what the outside may look like in 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at the 4k NAM, 850mb temps go above freezing at hour 20, which is basically 2AM. By hour 21 they are +4 to +8 C in NYC. 925mb temps are actually considerably colder. -4 to -8C and actually cooling for a period north of I-80. I wonder if that column is more supportive of sleet than freezing rain? that's fzra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This would make for a disastrous morning commute and I would go a couple degrees lower than the Nam shows at the surface. +1 LLC air usually is slightly stronger and holds its grounds longer than models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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