earthlight Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't think accumulated snowfall totals are going to exceed 2-4" at any NYC reporting station, but I suppose I could be wrong. These events almost always feature faster mid level warming than modeled and more stout and stubborn low level cold. Near the coast, in Central NJ and NYC, this means little snow (I would even argue closer to 2") followed by a period of mixed precipitation and ending as rain near the coast and drizzle inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 JM1220, what is the most we can realistically get and at what time if everything went right? Can we stay all frozen throughout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't think accumulated snowfall totals are going to exceed 2-4" at any NYC reporting station, but I suppose I could be wrong. These events almost always feature faster mid level warming than modeled and more stout and stubborn low level cold. Near the coast, in Central NJ and NYC, this means little snow (I would even argue closer to 2") followed by a period of mixed precipitation and ending as rain near the coast and drizzle inland. I'm still thinking a Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. The events are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't think accumulated snowfall totals are going to exceed 2-4" at any NYC reporting station, but I suppose I could be wrong. These events almost always feature faster mid level warming than modeled and more stout and stubborn low level cold. Near the coast, in Central NJ and NYC, this means little snow (I would even argue closer to 2") followed by a period of mixed precipitation and ending as rain near the coast and drizzle inland. Would you argue for more of a sleet to freezing drizzle scenario? That would be better than pouring freezing rain. My impression is that there is a lot of moisture from reading the NWS; I am absolutely not liking a lot of freezing rain. But if it is to be then I have to prepare. But a sleet fest I can live with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still thinking a Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. The events are similar. 4.5" for NYC. Then sleet/mix and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Huge spread in temps in short distances, will play a major role tonight/tomorrow... Hoboken at 23 - Morristown at 11 --- I think everyone is smart enough to decipher what I'm getting at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still thinking a Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. The events are similar. Wasn't that a pouring rain that caused flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Huge spread in temps in short distances, will play a major role tonight/tomorrow... Hoboken at 23 - Morristown at 11 --- I think everyone is smart enough to decipher what I'm getting at...That gap will narrow significantly in the daytime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wasn't that a pouring rain that caused flooding? Yes. After 4"-5" of snow front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I need to fly/drive tonight. What time should it start from the I87 Canadian border and south to Rockland? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Excellent morning discussion from Mt. Holly covering tomorrow and Sundays events. here is that warning discussion - I think the major problem with this discussion is they have southwest NJ and northern middlesex county mentioned in the same warning segment - 2 completely different conditions will probably exist in those areas tonight and tomorrow http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes. After 4"-5" of snow front end. Personally I thought that storm sucked...it got into the 50's IIRC and melted all the snow down to the ice left over from a previous ice event, and the storm drains were clogged with slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm still thinking a Feb. 23, 1994 repeat. The events are similar. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/23-Feb-94.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4.5" for NYC. Then sleet/mix and then rain. Actually there was no plain rain at all for LGA...it was snow to snow/sleet to FZDZ to some FZRA then back to FZDZ with some PL mixed in...Temp/Dp spread at the start of the event was 32/22, very similar to what this may be and temps went down to 28 or so and then the 050-070 wind never allowed much warming....I'm not sure there was a snowpack either before that event. The biggest difference I see is the mid-level temps were colder however and the high in much better position to cause CAD...this event the midlevel warmth will be a big factor...the lack of strong CAD however may be neutralized by the quicker transfer to a stronger coastal which may keep winds NE anyway as well as the snow cover. The 06z RGEM by the way continues to hedge more towards this being mainly PL or FZRA for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 New SREF's are an inch plus of QPF for all locations except 0.75"+ for most of the Hudson Valley. NYC proper taints between 09-12z and flips to plain rain by 15z. The surface never really goes above freezing north of I-80 except for perhaps an hour or two. Precip type maps show mostly freezing rain for that corridor. I'm trying to find a model that gives me 6-10" of snow and I can't find one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Actually there was no plain rain at all for LGA...it was snow to snow/sleet to FZDZ to some FZRA then back to FZDZ with some PL mixed in...Temp/Dp spread at the start of the event was 32/22, very similar to what this may be and temps went down to 28 or so and then the 050-070 wind never allowed much warming....I'm not sure there was a snowpack either before that event. The biggest difference I see is the mid-level temps were colder however and the high in much better position to cause CAD...this event the midlevel warmth will be a big factor...the lack of strong CAD however may be neutralized by the quicker transfer to a stronger coastal which may keep winds NE anyway as well as the snow cover. The 06z RGEM by the way continues to hedge more towards this being mainly PL or FZRA for NYC. Bust potential is huge for this coming event - will be a now casting event for sure because 1 or 2 degrees one way or the other at various levels determines precip type in various locations which might not be certain until the event is underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 New SREF's are an inch plus of QPF for all locations except 0.75"+ for most of the Hudson Valley. NYC proper taints between 09-12z and flips to plain rain by 15z. The surface never really goes above freezing north of I-80 except for perhaps an hour or two. Precip type maps show mostly freezing rain for that corridor. I'm trying to find a model that gives me 6-10" of snow and I can't find one. I'd say that 4-6" of snow is more likely for your area, assuming that the mid levels don't torch rapidly.Sent from my HTC PH39100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does bust potential in a positive way apply to Long island or only point from NYC North and West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Bust potential is huge for this coming event - will be a now casting event for sure because 1 or 2 degrees one way or the other at various levels determines precip type in various locations which might not be certain until the event is underway I believe MT Holly ( could be Upton I use both here ) actually mentioned bust potential being high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Bust potential is huge for this coming event - will be a now casting event for sure because 1 or 2 degrees at various levels determines precip type in various locations which might not be certain until the event is underway New SREF's are an inch plus of QPF for all locations except 0.75"+ for most of the Hudson Valley. NYC proper taints between 09-12z and flips to plain rain by 15z. The surface never really goes above freezing north of I-80 except for perhaps an hour or two. Precip type maps show mostly freezing rain for that corridor. I'm trying to find a model that gives me 6-10" of snow and I can't find one. The WAA is damn strong, the only thing that prevents me from really tossing snow altogether is that its very unusual for these events to come in purely as FZRA or PL...usually there is at least 2-3 hours of snow but in this event the mid-levels are fairly lousy from the start and there is also saturation down to 4-5000 feet as well which does not allow for that layer to cool, sometimes there is a nasty dry nosw near 850 which can cause that layer to cool significantly delaying the changeover even with the strong WSW flow aloft, but I don't see it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does bust potential in a positive way apply to Long island or only point from NYC North and West? I believe NWS said it could bust either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The WAA is damn strong, the only thing that prevents me from really tossing snow altogether is that its very unusual for these events to come in purely as FZRA or PL...usually there is at least 2-3 hours of snow but in this event the mid-levels are fairly lousy from the start and there is also saturation down to 4-5000 feet as well which does not allow for that layer to cool, sometimes there is a nasty dry nosw near 850 which can cause that layer to cool significantly delaying the changeover even with the strong WSW flow aloft, but I don't see it here. I'm thinking most areas don't even see 2" of snow outside of the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. Snow forecasts look way overdone to me, but that's just my opinion. Waiting on the 12z NAM which is about to come out. The 00z ECMWF was very alarming for ice. I think they should drop the WSW in favor of freezing rain advisories and ice storm warnings for the I-80 corridor at least. In some spots you have an inch of QPF that could realistically all fall as IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What would have to happen for NYC and LI to remain all snow, is it at least a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm thinking most areas don't even see 2" of snow outside of the higher elevations of NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. Snow forecasts look way overdone to me, but that's just my opinion. Waiting on the 12z NAM which is about to come out. The 00z ECMWF was very alarming for ice. I think they should drop the WSW in favor of freezing rain advisories and ice storm warnings for the I-80 corridor at least. In some spots you have an inch of QPF that could realistically all fall as IP and ZR. This is looking like maybe a 2/3/11 repeat, where there was significant sleet and ZR even near the shore. I think it will be hard for most people to get above 32, but a degree or two change can mean a huge difference in impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What would have to happen for NYC and LI to remain all snow, is it at least a possibility?There's pretty much no chance, the mid and upper levels will easily torch. You have a bigger chance of seeing no snow than all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is looking like maybe a 2/3/11 repeat, where there was significant sleet and ZR even near the shore. I think it will be hard for most people to get above 32, but a degree or two change can mean a huge difference in impact. ugh. another storm that sucked. God I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What would have to happen for NYC and LI to remain all snow, is it at least a possibility? probably not - I think 1-3/ 2-4 for NYC before a turnover to slop is a safe bet.. Manhattan itself will definitely not remain all frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What would have to happen for NYC and LI to remain all snow, is it at least a possibility? There Is No Chance Of All snow but if everything works out just right there could be not a drop of rain. Precip could stay mostly frozen. Etc ---> Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Graupel, Wintry Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do see high clouds moving in and currently 25.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The One Thing That Might Happen Is the precip coming in earlier which would give more snow. There is a 190MPH jet stream and this storm is flying. Would not be shocked for the snow to start earlier as it had all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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