Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014 Part II

[EasternUSWX]

18z GFS still looks great for the weekend, too! Except maybe for the immediate Philly metro area.

 

It'll shift around, but I like our chances for a biggie. 

[Mallow]

I'm thinking 4 to 7 for both of us Mallow...going with latest qpf and chance of mixing. I'll take it a million times though!!

 

Certainly not unreasonable. My (tempered) thoughts are 5-8, so we're pretty much in line there. And I agree, I am more than happy with even 6"!

[EasternUSWX]

NWS still has rain likely here for Wednesday.... why?

[Mallow]

This kind of detail at this range is pretty silly to be discussing, but I'm a silly guy!

 

(Obviously all snow for everyone in PA except the Philly metro area)

[Santa Clause]

GOOD LORD LOL.

[NortheastPAWx]

This kind of detail at this range is pretty silly to be discussing, but I'm a silly guy!

weekender.gif

 

(Obviously all snow for everyone in PA except the Philly metro area)

That's total precip for the whole run...so doesn't that mean we're seeing very little verbatim this weekend?

[dcfox1]

I remember getting away to my parents cabin at Raystown Lake to be in a snowstorm instead of rain here and it was turned out to be mostly sleet. So much the road had to be cleared with a front end loader in a steep mountain hillside area because it rolled down burying the road.

Never saw anything like that. I think that was an inch or so of sleet 10 years ago or more.

[EasternUSWX]

GFS has 3" of snow now to MD line. 

[Santa Clause]

Here's to hoping 0z juices up just a bit and gets colder for all of us!!! SREF, EURO and CMC all jacked, NAM and GFS .7 to.8 ish.

[canderson]

A trained spotter in hershey reporting 8.5"?

[snowalot]

This kind of detail at this range is pretty silly to be discussing, but I'm a silly guy!

weekender.gif

 

(Obviously all snow for everyone in PA except the Philly metro area)

 

Nice view. Let us see if it holds serve and perhaps increases the amount - how about some shades of purple???? 

[djr5001]

A trained spotter in hershey reporting 8.5"?

if measuring every 15-30 minutes it could very well be accurate... I didnt get out that often (especially early on) so may have missed out on some measurements before it compacted a little throughout the day

 

MDT going with 6.5" officially which sets a record for today

[pawatch]

I'm thinking 4 to 7 for both of us Mallow...going with latest qpf and chance of mixing. I'll take it a million times though!!

 

edit: Nam has us both at .7 total so cutting back a bit 5  looks good.

Heck even WNEP is going with 5-9" and he is conservative  and I didn't mention any names.

 

My Wednesday guess...

 

Snowcast:

20140205snowcast.png

 

Sleetcast*:

20140205sleetcast.png

 

Icecast:

20140205icecast.png

 

 

Both ptype and amounts are in question, of course, and it wouldn't shock me to see verifications quite different from this, especially in the south-central part of PA.

 

*I also think I overestimated the sleet-to-liquid ratio (was thinking more 5:1 rather than 3:1 for some reason), so maybe cut the sleet accumulations down by about 1/2 or 1/3 to get a more realistic value.

Mallow good maps!!!

 

34 degrees and a winter wonderland. Congrats to Steve and PSUhoffman for getting in on the action today.

Gotta go clear off the slush as we await round #2 of #3...

Agreed - they was long overdue.

 

I know everyone is talking snow. But up here there is ice on the river from Jersey Shore to Williamsport. I can't remember the last time I have seen that much ice. And it looks pretty thick.

[canderson]

if measuring every 15-30 minutes it could very well be accurate... I didnt get out that often (especially early on) so may have missed out on some measurements before it compacted a little throughout the day

MDT officially recorded 6.5".

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

A trained spotter in hershey reporting 8.5"?

Some of the banding was nuts.  I was right near the rain snow line about 3 miles or less above it and those bands were insane.  A few good ones skipped north.  If they got under any they would have cashed in.

[Mallow]

That's total precip for the whole run...so doesn't that mean we're seeing very little verbatim this weekend?

 

Hmm... I clicked "48-hour precip". Let me double check.

 

Just checked. The map is mislabeled. That's just the 48-hour precip from hrs 120-168. So ya, lots of snow.

 

 

EDIT: Here is the total precip through hr 168

[Santa Clause]

Here's to a surprise regionwide 4+ event tomorrow. HOPEFULLY models aren't under doing warm push, we don't need our LSV crew without power for an extended time.

[NortheastPAWx]

Hmm... I clicked "48-hour precip". Let me double check.

 

Just checked. The map is mislabeled. That's just the 48-hour precip from hrs 120-168. So ya, lots of snow.

 

 

EDIT: Here is the total precip through hr 168

totalprecip.gif

Ah, that would make a lot more sense then.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Recap of my snow day:

 

1. Slept in until 7

2. Made pancakes from scratch.... and found a new favorite recipe

3. watched tv in bed with the mrs for an hour

4. diddled around the house for a while

 

(here's where it starts going downhill)

 

5. went out to start clearing snow cement at 11:30

6. Snowblower starts! (couldn't get it to start during the big freeze)

7. get half of our section of the alley cleared, snowblower stalls and won't run for longer than a few seconds

8. Spend 2 hours messing with the snowblower, get it to run after messing with the carb (running too lean, me thinks)

9. Finish alley, start clearing the on street space.

10. ****. Snowblower doesn't move slush very well.

11. Shovel shovel shovel 

12. Finish up at 3:30

13. Take 2 advil for back pain

14. Curse mother nature for such a horribly dense snowfall

15. Make some tea, turn on the fireplace and log on to amwx to see when more advil will be needed.

[canderson]

Hmm... I clicked "48-hour precip". Let me double check.

 

Just checked. The map is mislabeled. That's just the 48-hour precip from hrs 120-168. So ya, lots of snow.

 

 

EDIT: Here is the total precip through hr 168

totalprecip.gif

I need a larger shovel ...

[KPITSnow]

Here's to a surprise regionwide 4+ event tomorrow. HOPEFULLY models aren't under doing warm push, we don't need our LSV crew without power for an extended time.

What would be a surprise about that? Outside of the southern tier counties, things look good.

And you are looking good for 8+ tomorrow!

[2001kx]

Ofcoarse i lost my internet right when we have a storm for my area.now im stuck on my phone trying to tell whats going on.

[Rick G]

Ofcoarse i lost my internet right when we have a storm for my area.now im stuck on my phone trying to tell whats going on.

you should try foxfi (android app) if you have an android phone. it tethers with out going through the phone company. I use it all the time.

 

Weather related: Tom Clark of WNEP stated 3 to 5 south of Scranton and 5 to 8  north. I know he always starts  conservative.

[JamieOber]

I'm thinking 4 to 7 for both of us Mallow...going with latest qpf and chance of mixing. I'll take it a million times though!!

 

edit: Nam has us both at .7 total so cutting back a bit 5  looks good.

I think 4-7 is a decent enough call.

[dcfox1]

A trained spotter in hershey reporting 8?

There was some good bands the set up even at the end from York northeast.

[NortheastPAWx]

I think 4-7 is a decent enough call.

Getting just 4-5" from this one would kind of disappoint, tbh.

[Santa Clause]

Yea, but precip. has really cut back on most models and it looks like 10 to 1 if we're lucky. But hey, its def gonna snow, so I'll enjoy every flake!

[heavy_wx]

Interesting looking at the subtle differences in the 12z suite (Euro vs. GFS). There seem to be two main factors that produce a more favorable snow event in the Euro solution vs the GFS.

 

The first is a slightly stronger and greater curvature 500 mb height field in the Euro solution over the southern plains by 18z Tuesday. This is a result of slightly more phase interaction between the pacific northwest and southwest US shortwave, preceding this time. This is similar to the situation we had with today's storm where the Euro had a more amplified shortwave than the GFS; again as a result of greater phase interaction, leading to a more northerly solution. In this case, this also brings the storm slightly farther northward and more importantly, increases the strength of the low, which increases the 850 mb height gradient and low-level moisture transport. This is evident in the stronger 850 mb wind field (about 5 kts) of the Euro over the deep south, most significantly from 00z Wednesday and on.

 

With the greater moisture in the Euro solution, the second aspect leading to the higher snowfall (and ZR/IP) QPF is the colder low-level temperatures. Both models show fairly similar 500 mb confluence over southern Quebec, however the Euro has the closed low a little farther south resulting in a tighter 500 mb height gradient. This confluence is important for keeping cold air flowing into our region as it promotes the development of a surface high which in turn leads to ageostrophic/issalobaric northerly flow. This can also prolong the period of cold air damming. The wind vectors from the Euro solution show a much more northerly component than the GFS, most likely due to the greater horizontal resolution and the enhanced confluence.

 

I would have to favor the Euro for both of these factors. I think the Euro did a better job with the phase interaction of shortwaves leading to today's snowfall. I also believe the Euro will have a better handle on the cold air damming due to its greater resolution (and perhaps better assimilation of the response to today's fresh snow cover).

 

Another model that did fairly well with today's storm is the 12km SUNY Stony Brook WRF-ARW model, initialized with the GFS as its boundary conditions. This model predicts a situation similar to what the Euro has been showing, with 850 mb temperatures staying below freezing for the northern 2/3 of PA. As a mesoscale model though, you do have to be concerned that it may be overdone with QPF.

 

(Link: http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/gfs.2014020312.html)

 

I think a range of 0.8-1.0" QPF is reasonable for now with mostly snow for UNV and IPT. Snow-liquid ratios will probably be around 7-10:1 with lifting outside of the dendritic growth zone. 6-10" looks like a good range for now. There will probably be slightly more precip farther south, where of course there will be more mixing going on.

[NortheastPAWx]

Yea, but precip. has really cut back on most models and it looks like 10 to 1 if we're lucky. But hey, its def gonna snow, so I'll enjoy every flake!

?

I see near or over 1.00" from the SREFs, GGEM, and ECM. Only NAM/GFS not near that, and they have .75+.

[sauss06]

I'm going with 5.9" officially... 3.4" since 7am melted down to .31"... ratio a little over 10:1 which is higher than I expected... that last inch likely changed that...

 

going to melt a core sample and see how much liquid is in the 5.9"

I would have never guessed 10:1