MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Newest few HRRR runs really jump lancaster/S york's temps up around 10z. W Adams and Great valley stay in it. I've noticed that as well. I also don't pay too much attention to HRRR after say 10 hrs of the run. I found out it fluctuates quite a bit after that time frame. Kind of loses it's muster. That being said, it is interesting to see that feature. Will have to see if it holds merit. That could help spare places like Lancaster over to Philly. Other than that, it is pretty dang cold the rest of the run. Lots of IP/ZR in the mix (no pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wait what's the diff btwn point and click and grid forecast? I go to wunderground or noaa and enter my zip. What's that called if not grid?! Also a lot of trees are already close to snapping. anyone correct me, grids or zone forecast was the original forecast issued before point and click. NWS would always lump counties together example adams, york, lancaster, that had similar climates. (kinda what you hear on weather radio) they still issue these along with point and click http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/forecasts.php go here and scroll down to forecast county/city tab and all forecasts are listed there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FWIW, 0.25" sleet reported in portsmouth, OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Same for UNV area Jamie? If true, great sign... Yep. The HRRR has pushed the changeover back in State College, and has all the heaviest precip as plain snow. In fact, even the last frame at 13z it's still (barely) all snow, the mixing line just to the south. Precip over 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Newest few HRRR runs really jump lancaster/S york's temps up around 10z. W Adams and Great valley stay in it. New run says never mind to that, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Still in the mid to upper 20's at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A lot of people get their forecast from the point and click forecasts. That's not good to have these discrepancies. Agreed 100% Jamie. For years I have suggested my parents use NWS for their weather forecast. Tonight my Dad calls me and says, well the forecast is just for 2-4", doesn't sound too bad. At the least it is totally incongruent with the Warning text. I would call it unprofessional as well. Nothing but respect for NWS mets but this is something that should be looked at as an area for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok, so what are the chances that we get more sleet in the LSV than everyone thinks out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like the HRRR is changing us to ZR instead of IP, and not until the precip is light. 12/14 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Has anything changed with timing Zak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Millersville just canceled till noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hot off the press: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Has anything changed with timing Zak? Looking at HRRR and radar would say around 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hot off the press: How does an IAD sounding help us? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 1.5" of sleet in SE IN. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How are things shaping up vs. the models? On track? Warmer? Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 How are things shaping up vs. the models? On track? Warmer? Colder? Colder down here at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CST TUE FEB 04 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN OH / W-CNTRL AND NWRN PA / FAR WRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 050112Z - 050715Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER N-CNTRL OH AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN OH AND AREAS IN NWRN PA AND FAR WRN NY. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES MAY INTERMITTENTLY APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR OVER NERN OH AND NWRN PA PRIOR TO 06Z. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTER PRECIP OVER IN/OH/KY DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE 00Z/05 ILN RAOB DEPICTED A LARGELY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A H85 WARM NOSE /-0.5 DEG C/. THE RAPID NWD FLUX OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PW 1.3 INCH BNA RAOB/ ADVECTING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY VIA A 75 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT INCREASING/HEAVY PRECIP RATES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS ASCENT/WAA INCREASES. THE 18Z NAM APPEARED TO REASONABLY CAPTURE THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER SWRN OH EARLY THIS EVENING COMPARED TO THE 00Z ILN RAOB. 18Z NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW OVER CNTRL OH TOWARDS 04Z. OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE PAST 30 MINUTES IN DAYTON AND CINCINNATI INDICATE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS IN THE PROCESS OF OCCURRING--CONFIRMING THIS NOTION OF MIXED P-TYPE MOVING INTO SWRN OH. FARTHER N...A COLDER COLUMN WILL MAINTAIN SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE AND RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE BY MID EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT MAY LOCALLY BOOST RATES TO NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER NERN OH AND FAR NWRN PA. ..SMITH.. 02/05/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Awesome - hope it means that we get some IP, seeing that we're at similar latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 26 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 26 here. Same here. Low was supposed to be 27. HRRR drops it to 24 here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hot off the press: Wow, very dry at 700mb. Going to take some time to moisten up. How does an IAD sounding help us? lol It's a useful sounding because it illustrates the air mass upstream of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow, very dry at 700mb. Going to take some time to moisten up. It's a useful sounding because it illustrates the air mass upstream of the area. IAD is southeast of here. Precip is coming from SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Update for the guys. Heavy freezing rain near 30 in SW KY earlier... .50" reported with widespread power outages. So the heavy freezing rain and warm temps thing is thrown out the door. lol. Here is Paducah, KY where .50" has been reported. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPAH.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How does an IAD sounding help us? lol Gotta look upstream to see what's coming down. lol. More so the warm nose at 800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wow, very dry at 700mb. Going to take some time to moisten up. It's a useful sounding because it illustrates the air mass upstream of the area. Does this mean CAD is going to be stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gotta look upstream to see what's coming down. lol. More so the warm nose at 800mb. Guess IAD is more for you. Since IAD is to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 washington md 750 forecast update (hagerstown) ...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES that would be something ZAK. LWX took the snow out of it http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/md/mdz003.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 washington md 750 forecast update (hagerstown) ...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES that would be something ZAK. LWX took the snow out of it Makes since, doubt any snow here... maybe for 1 minute. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 IAD is southeast of here. Precip is coming from SW. IAD & PIT soundings are useful for all of central PA. IAD helps Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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