WxLover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Very little snow melted off the trees and power lines here in Hershey today, many front yards are littered with twigs and small branches. Any extra weight is going to cause some problems here. That's my concern as we sit at 26 degrees. Agree 100% Most of the pines and evergreens are stressed already. Add on tonight, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A lot of people get their forecast from the point and click forecasts. That's not good to have these discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 are you calling me old? watch it lol I'm prob close to your age Zak's 24. How old are you? BTW, I've been meaning to compliment you on your amazing wx station setup. Not many spotters have 10-meter towers in their back yard! Also, is that a clear-vue rain gauge mounted on a post I see as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A lot of people get their forecast from the point and click forecasts. That's not good to have these discrepancies. That was my point. Not bashing by any means. Just public awareness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I dismiss the ice potential based on three criteria: 1.) Speed of the storm. Progressive storms such as this rarely go as planned. They are in and out in 10 - 14 hours. Not much time for the precipitation to accumulate, or pile up. 2.) Amount of warm air. With each run, there has been an increase in the mid level warming south of Route 22, which in my experience, is crucial in identifying major ice events. Take a look at the sounding for York, PA at 12z (07:00 local time). The surface is *barely* below freezing and it's torching aloft. In the mid 40s between 750 - 850 mb. 1782138_791929384156618_858976162_n.jpg 3.) Precipitation rates. Ask JamieO about the success of freezing rain accreting when it's coming down at a steady rate. Latent heat release will aid in warming surfaces temperatures and keeping major ice accretions from occurring. I absolutely agree there will be slick roads and power outages, but long term power outages (which are considered more than 24 consecutive hours for a customer) will be scattered at best. Believe it or not, I hope I am wrong. I *want* a crippling ice storm, it excites me to see that. Also for those wondering how to measure the weight of ice on power lines, check out this site. http://powline.com/products.html Powline.com has software which allows users to calculate the weigh of ice on electrical lines. Majority of PO's are from trees compromising lines, or trasnformer shortage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A lot of people get their forecast from the point and click forecasts. That's not good to have these discrepancies. It's not just the point and clicks though, Jamie. It's also the grid maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Zak's 24. How old are you? BTW, I've been meaning to compliment you on your amazing wx station setup. Not many spotters have 10-meter towers in their back yard! Also, is that a clear-vue rain gauge mounted on a post I see as well? well thanks. yeah that's exactly 10m / 33ft. for the rain guage,( 4" cocarahs) that's a pt 2x6 I cut into a point at bottom and hammered in about a foot. Works great. I'm 32. I thought Zak was a little older sporting that beard on his whitetail ski forecast haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not gonna lie I'm jealous of Cashtown's set up. My dream backyard right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's not just the point and clicks though, Jamie. It's also the grid maps. grids / zone exactly. we don't even make an advisory with the wording down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Comparing all of the storm totals it seems CTP is the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not gonna lie I'm jealous of Cashtown's set up. stop guys lol thanks!! I'm glad to see people recognize what i put into it. My neighbors think i'm crazy but at least you guys get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 stop guys lol thanks!! I'm glad to see people recognize what i put into it. My neighbors think i'm crazy but at least you guys get it. I want to go there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Time to crank up GR products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Time to crank up GR products. Dual-Pol will be critical tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Dual-Pol will be critical tonight. Dual melting layers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 None of the storms lately have been big enough for me to break out the big guns. Time to crank it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 On the way to dinner, we were looking at trees sagging. A main road by us (valley) the trees are already having an affect on the power lines that cross that road. Won't take much more to bring them down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I've been meaning to get a second screen for awhile but I can't fit my homework and second monitor on the same desk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 None of the storms lately have been big enough for me to break out the big guns. Time to crank it up. Show-off!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 weather whacker!! (footlong) lol edit: glad to see people are as nuts about the weather as I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Boom time baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Show-off!!!!!!!!!! weather whacker!! (footlong) lol edit: glad to see people are as nuts about the weather as I am Oh ya. Got GREarth, GR2Analyst, GRLevel3 and Radarscope with all the Allison House data. I think I am ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Wait what's the diff btwn point and click and grid forecast? I go to wunderground or noaa and enter my zip. What's that called if not grid?! Also a lot of trees are already close to snapping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Newest few HRRR runs really jump lancaster/S york's temps up around 10z. W Adams and Great valley stay in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 When does 850 0 line pass Harrisburg based on hrrr? Just curious, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll post radar shots in here for you guys through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Newest few HRRR runs really jump lancaster/S york's temps up around 10z. W Adams and Great valley stay in it. Gives me 8" and it's still snowing at 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gives me 8" and it's still snowing at 8 am. Same for UNV area Jamie? If true, great sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 People I know are taking this event with a grain of salt, are thinking nothing of it, are focused on the "blizzard" on Sunday. They may be right, we'll find out, but Damn at least pay attention just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah hell yes, this is from my professor of my 1:25 class... Dear all,given the winter storm advisory, I have decided to CANCEL CLASS TOMORROW (Wednesday the 5th) rather than have you traipse through sleet & snow. I will also not be holding office hours but feel free to e-mail me with any questions. Be safe and I will see you in class this Friday! Come on PSU, cancel the AM classes and I have a free day tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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