wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would put .25" as my low end for PA lo-cal's. I think most every met agrees with at least that barring some massive warm up or torrential downpour that takes away accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 26 with a DP of 12 right now. Hoping for mostly snow up here just north of Scranton. History has been if there is strong WAA and the BGM area is modeled to turn to ice then we go over earlier than the models say. If the dividing line is AVP we tend to stay snow and don't flip while the valley cities see some ice. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've lived in many places and had lots of different electrical companies. PPL is in my opinion bar none the best at responding to outages. Talk to a Met-Ed customer and ask them what they think about their provider ... They do prestage well, I've seen quite a few armada of trucks around getting ready today actually. Adams Electrical Coop does a good job too. I lol'd. No kidding. This stuff out there is like a brick. Shenks parking lot has cars all caked in. There's going to be a lot of cemented cars tomorrow I lived in Shenks for years, even was an RA for a time. Had Room 314...aka the pi room (get it, 3.14 :nerd: ) Quick question I have a new generator and was wondering any way to plug it in to mAke your furnace run. Thanks What do you mean by "plug it in"? Are you trying to back feed your house? I would advise against doing that, as that can cause electrical overloads in your house. Either consult a licensed electrician or read both the furnace and heater manuals. Can you provide evidence to support this claim? When is an inch of ice (which is on the models) not a crippling event? The NAM is notorious for throwing out large ice amounts. I've seen it time after time, only to have a few icicles on the trees or stop signs. I have yet to see one official forecast call for more than 1/2" ice. You really don't get major, widespread crippling infrastructure problems that last for days until you hit the 0.75" < amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would put .25" as my low end for PA lo-cal's. I think most every met agrees with at least that barring some massive warm up or torrential downpour that takes away accretion. Models look to be running 2-3 degrees too warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 CTP's maps has me at 1-2 inches of snow and .01-.10 of ice. Is this a non event here in Schuylkill County or what? I'm perplexed. I've been working and driving all day and haven't really had time to look at models or anything yet.... ***Edited to add that State College's and Mount Holly's maps for this system are WORLD'S apart at this time.*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would put .25" as my low end for PA lo-cal's. I think most every met agrees with at least that barring some massive warm up or torrential downpour that takes away accretion.High end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It won't. Progressive systems such as this with marginal air masses don't produce big ice storms. Doubtful any of the population centers get more than 0.25". Power outages won't be a big deal either, as it should be just wires down and not major infrastructure damage like poles, substations and transformers. And before people go and steam roll me for downplaying this event, chill out. I've been on conference calls all day and the general thinking is that this isn't a once-in-a-lifetime, save-the-children ice storm. Just a pain in the neck. I don't think people think its a once in a lifetime event unless your young but and outage in the winter leaving people without heat is a big deal if its for an extended period of time. Things get fixed quicker in Major Metropolitan areas then up here. I not trying to be critical but u have been saying things all year that u need to get the Maryland or DC area weather and climate out of your head. Edit: I hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Very little snow melted off the trees and power lines here in Hershey today, many front yards are littered with twigs and small branches. Any extra weight is going to cause some problems here. That's my concern as we sit at 26 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 High end? Hard to say, obviously the highest of the high would be near model output consensus which is .9 to 1.2 but it really depends on precipitation rate and how well it can stick to surfaces (accretion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If you're not sure at this moment, call an electrician. There's an easy way to do it, but I wouldn't recommend it for someone not familiar with electrical circuits due to the dangers involved, including fire and death. Turn off the main and plug generator into 220 outlet(dryer) to power up the panel? safe? prob not...but i would try it if i really had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Very little snow melted off the trees and power lines here in Hershey today, many front yards are littered with twigs and small branches. Any extra weight is going to cause some problems here. That's my concern as we sit at 26 degrees. Hope for heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Model output, so near or just below an inch. If that happens, good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Very little snow melted off the trees and power lines here in Hershey today, many front yards are littered with twigs and small branches. Any extra weight is going to cause some problems here. That's my concern as we sit at 26 degrees. The pines here are still bendy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 25/14 here in Akron. I'm hoping that the quick mover scenario plays out w/ this one.....unless it stays as all snow...then it can slow down... I'm such a weenie... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Turn off the main and plug generator into 220 outlet(dryer) to power up the panel? safe? prob not...but i would try it if i really had to. Please don't try this. I can't say that strongly enough.Buy a kerosene heater for now and call an electrician when power returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can you provide evidence to support this claim? When is an inch of ice (which is on the models) not a crippling event? just because a model shows an inch of precip falling during favorable conditions for freezing rain doesnt mean it will accumulate to an inch of ice... heavy rates will runoff before all freezes RGEM had about 1.5" as ice during a previous storm and we ended up with .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lancaster 25 / 14 - never got above 27 today according to the LNS airport with a slight NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 just because a model shows an inch of precip falling during favorable conditions for freezing rain doesnt mean it will accumulate to an inch of ice... heavy rates will runoff before all freezes RGEM had about 1.5" as ice during a previous storm and we ended up with .25" True, but those storms were not expected to produce that much ice. This time we know most will be ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haha for sure I got an electrician coming out, had to pay a good bit more but worth it and won't have to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the most significant icing will be in the Laurels. Not sure about back home though. Really can't remember the last bad ice storm. For here in UNV I am thinking 4-7" and throw in some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 25.4 and actually a bit concerned about the ice down here for the first time in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wow Ctp just axed snowfall between the turnpike and 80 a bit. Some places went from 4-6 to 1-2. Funny when nothing in the 18z package was any warmer then 12z. Just wish I knew what they were thinking sometimes. I thought they were too bullish for the central 3rd earlier and they jumped right to bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It won't. Progressive systems such as this with marginal air masses don't produce big ice storms. Doubtful any of the population centers get more than 0.25". Power outages won't be a big deal either, as it should be just wires down and not major infrastructure damage like poles, substations and transformers. And before people go and steam roll me for downplaying this event, chill out. I've been on conference calls all day and the general thinking is that this isn't a once-in-a-lifetime, save-the-children ice storm. Just a pain in the neck. Joe, how can you dismiss this so non-chalantly? Ever since my post a few hours ago where I layed out my case for why I felt this ice storm has the potential to be crippling, I was thinking to my self that this storm could turn out to be "The Perfect Storm" for ice. Of course, the premise I lay out completely depends on us receiving the very high amounts of freezing rain that some models have been predicting. Why do I call it "The Perfect Storm"? Because of the weight of all the snow/ice now stuck to all of our trees and shrubs. I know this isn't overly scientific, but I've been trying to estimate what is the volume of ice accretion (by weight) now sticking to everything? I am thinking that it actually is between 0.15" and 0.25". So, in essence, we are starting out this upcoming storm with the accreted weight of those values. Now, let's say that roughly 0.50" of ice successfully accretes by the time the storm ends. The effective weight will really be like as much as 0.75" of accretion, and thus the damage produced will be amplified. Because of this, I believe the possibility is greater now that we reach the level 3 of storm damage from Zak's ice chart. I don't want any ice accretion and am praying that the majority falls as frozen instead of freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 True, but those storms were not expected to produce that much ice. This time we know most will be ZR. low dew points will help fight the warm air moving in at first... but they will eventually climb into at least the upper 20s if not low 30s... that will not be cold enough to force all falling precip to freeze right away... rainfall rates will be too heavy for all of it to freeze before dripping from the trees... will it eventually freeze at the surface? possibly Joe, how can you dismiss this so non-chalantly? Ever since my post a few hours ago where I layed out my case for why I felt this ice storm has the potential to be crippling, I was thinking to my self that this storm could turn out to be "The Perfect Storm" for ice. Of course, the premise I lay out completely depends on us receiving the very high amounts of freezing rain that some models have been predicting. Why do I call it "The Perfect Storm"? Because of the weight of all the snow/ice now stuck to all of our trees and shrubs. I know this isn't overly scientific, but I've been trying to estimate what is the volume of ice accretion (by weight) now sticking to everything? I am thinking that it actually is between 0.15" and 0.25". So, in essence, we are starting out this upcoming storm with the accreted weight of those values. Now, let's say that roughly 0.50" of ice successfully accretes by the time the storm ends? The effective weight will really be like as much as 0.25" of accretion, and thus the damage produced will be amplified. Because of this, I believe the possibility is greater now that we reach the level 3 of storm damage from Zak's ice chart. I don't want any ice accretion and am praying that the majority falls as frozen instead of freezing. even though some snow is still on the trees a droplet warm enough to be a rain drop will cause a mix of some melting of that snow and refreeze... not all will hit branches and freeze on impact... the weight on the branches yesterday was heavier than what a quarter inch ice will have and without... without significant wind we will need more than a half inch of ice forming on trees and i just dont see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 CTP IN THE LAURELS AND SC MTNS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETIONS POSS. IFCOLDER AIR WINS OUT FOR A LONGER PERIOD...SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ONICE AMOUNTS. BUT EVENTUALLY THE WARMER AIR WILL ALLOW THE ICE TOWIN OUT. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE. POWER OUTAGESAS WELL...DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 low dew points will help fight the warm air moving in at first... but they will eventually climb into at least the upper 20s if not low 30s... that will not be cold enough to force all falling precip to freeze right away... rainfall rates will be too heavy for all of it to freeze before dripping from the trees... will it eventually freeze at the surface? possibly even though some snow is still on the trees a droplet warm enough to be a rain drop will cause a mix of some melting of that snow and refreeze... not all will hit branches and freeze on impact... the weight on the branches yesterday was heavier than what a quarter inch ice will have and without... without significant wind we will need more than a half inch of ice forming on trees and i just dont see it More than half an inch? What super strong trees do you have? Once it hits .3" here stuff starts going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Please don't try this. I can't say that strongly enough. Buy a kerosene heater for now and call an electrician when power returns. Im not telling him to do it..I was asking you if that was what you were talking about. guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Im not telling him to do it..I was asking you if that was what you were talking about.No. I'd never try to feed an entire house through 1 receptacle. The transient portion of the current could very well start a fire, even on the 220 line.The only safe location with which to power the entire home is at the main. For powering the furnace, isolating it from the rest of the house via breaker and receptacle is the safest route, but requires amending the existing wiring which is beyond most homeowners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was it December 16 when Harrisburg to Hershey never got above 29 and places all around were in the 40s? I got caught driving home and it was awful. Something about that valley seems To trap the cold air along 322. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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