MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mag good maps! Seem pretty reasonable. Will be interesting to see what the totals tally is up around the Pa/Ny border. Hopefully things will turn out okay with it. All kinds of moving parts and factors with this storm. Speed of the storm could knock off the top end of that 8-14 range. Either way, I think you and wsptwx should be in pretty good shape for the most part and at least get warning criteria verified snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And here they are. Ice map includes a highlighted area where there is the best potential for a sizeable amount of sleet. If that comes to fruition it could affect snow totals on my map in that particular area. Sleet could cut things down east of that as well if warm air aloft intrudes more. Portrayed a slightly colder bias with my maps. Slide1.png Slide1.png Hope your right on the first and wrong on the 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Correct. I was thinking more like 1 maybe 2 worst case... there just wont be the wind to go with it I agree with djr. Due to lack of wind, which currently is forecast to remain below 15mph, it would be hard to exceed level 2. And that is somewhat promising. BUT, here's the caveat: That chart does not take into account the uniqueness of the fact that all the trees/shrubs are currently covered in that snow/ice mix. We are starting off the event already with trees weighed down, albeit not terribly much, except for possibly the large evergreens which really accumulated the snow yesterday. With that in advance of the storm's arrival I would tend to think that the severity number on that damage scale might be a little higher than it would otherwise indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sleet fest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I can say the worst zr event I ever experienced was in NE Texas at the millenium. We had about 1" - 1.25" ice and if you know that area you know it's all heavy pine forests and no utilities are under ground due to the clay soil and oil / gas lines that run everywhere (no basements either). We lost power for 11 days and the only way we got it back was my dad and I literally bribed a SWEPCO crew with hundreds of dollars and free food to come to our out-of-the way neighborhood instead of calling it a day. To get that rate, it drizzled for about a day at 29 degrees. The next week we saw 2" of nothing but sleet. It was insane the damage it caused - I wish I still had the photos. Think Paducah from a few years' back in a more rural / isolated scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A lot of areas (including mine) have underground utilities which might help. But if a substation gets fried it doesn't matter. The Station at near Donegal High School has a high rate of failure unless they upgraded recently. That effects Mt Joy and Marietta. I think Maytown is ok when that goes out. May be on the Elizabethtown grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 About 20MM (.80") of ZR.. ya that's not good. Even if it all doesn't stick... at least .50" should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 27F with a 19DP. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Id rather have a sleet fest than zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But if a substation gets fried it doesn't matter. The Station at near Donegal High School has a high rate of failure unless they upgraded recently. That effects Mt Joy and Marietta. I think Maytown is ok when that goes out. May be on the Elizabethtown grid.I have classes with a PPL substation technician, I'll get his thoughts tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just saw the 4km NAM, 1" all FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But if a substation gets fried it doesn't matter. The Station at near Donegal High School has a high rate of failure unless they upgraded recently. That effects Mt Joy and Marietta. I think Maytown is ok when that goes out. May be on the Elizabethtown grid.Do you think Millersville University might be able to keep power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you think Millersville University might be able to keep power? I'd be surprised if MU doesn't have on-site backup power available, at least to some buildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just saw the 4km NAM, 1" all FZRA. Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 During the "big freeze" a few weeks ago, PPL was very close to implementing rolling blackouts due to demand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have classes with a PPL substation technician, I'll get his thoughts tonight. I can remember several ice storms I worked when I saw that blue lightning coming from that substation then darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 New Rap shows 1.3-1.5" qpf over the southern tier. All frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Down to 28 already. Wonder how cold we can get tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 25.6 / 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM seems a little colder. Noticed Cobb has 2.4 for UNV as opposed to .4 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 25.6 / 20 What was your high today? We got to 29 breifly but it only held for a few minutes. Most of the day was at 26 or 27. 27/18 now. Edit: We have NNE winds now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 25.6 / 20 Already? lol yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM seems a little colder. Noticed Cobb has 2.4 for UNV as opposed to .4 of snow. NWS is still keeping their totals...they haven't backed off none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Def chilled off here, there was zero melt to begin with today out of the trees or otherwise. Temps about 27 degrees and it's clouded up. Looks and feels like a winter storm is about to go down thats for sure. Starting with a 4.5-5" snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 just got back from checking my golf course in Fairfield (southwest Adams County). the front nine is full of white pines which still have tons of snow on them. many have branches weighted to the ground. some branches were already snapped off just from the snow alone. looks like alot more cleanup on the way unless we can stay ip instead of zr down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What was your high today? We got to 29 breifly but it only held for a few minutes. Most of the day was at 26 or 27. 27/18 now. Edit: We have NNE winds now too. MMTS had 28.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What was your high today? We got to 29 breifly but it only held for a few minutes. Most of the day was at 26 or 27. 27/18 now. Edit: We have NNE winds now too. How much ice do you think we end up with at MU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM seems a little colder. Noticed Cobb has 2.4 for UNV as opposed to .4 of snow. Probably more importantly, it went from 0.82" ZR to 0.24" That's probably still too high but this is the kind of storm where you won't know what you'll get until it is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 How much ice do you think we end up with at MU? That's the big question now isn't it... Biggest problem in answering that is ice accretion vs. actual precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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