sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have about 6 pages to read to catch up, as i just had a federal DOT inspection, unannounced, for the past 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is major icing south. Back up to over 1" qpf with at least .5" coming as freezing rain if not more. Also has 750 mb temperatures above freezing for central PA most of the entire event. Things have clearly trended warmer today. I think the convection in the lower Mississippi valley region had the effect of amping up the 500 mb features (probably more than I anticipated) and in turn giving us a stronger primary low. This is evident in the development of a warm layer above 850 mb in the models. Even the Euro now flirts with the freezing mark around 800 mb at UNV by 12z, after about 0.65" QPF as snow. I think 4-5" is reasonable for the snow and sleet accumulation for central PA. Areas farther north such as IPT should do a bit better as the warm layer is not as much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And here they are. Ice map includes a highlighted area where there is the best potential for a sizeable amount of sleet. If that comes to fruition it could affect snow totals on my map in that particular area. Sleet could cut things down east of that as well if warm air aloft intrudes more. Portrayed a slightly colder bias with my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 From what I gather, a worst-case scenario for this storm would be a 2 or a 3, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Damn, does this thing ever move fast on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 From what I gather, a worst-case scenario for this storm would be a 2 or a 3, right? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any snow on the front end Maybe an inch but not much south of the turnpike...north of there its hard to say, there are hints that dynamic cooling might keep things snow/sleet for a while but its hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Trees are still covered in snow in smyork county, this could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at that radar seems like precip will move in quicker this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 From what I gather, a worst-case scenario for this storm would be a 2 or a 3, right? I was thinking more like 1 maybe 2 worst case... there just wont be the wind to go with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i'd say that map above is a good map for the LSV, 2-4" snow before sleet and then FRZN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think 4-6" is the max for UNV, it's painfully obvious what the trend is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looking at that radar seems like precip will move in quicker this evening. they moved up the start time to the warnings to 7pm probably because of that... the one difference between before this event and before the start of yesterdays is the moisture levels right now are much lower than that of Sunday night/Monday morning... some of the initial light precip will evaporate... but that could hopefully help cool the column prior to the warm air beginning to push in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was thinking more like 1 maybe 2 worst case... there just wont be the wind to go with itBut models are trending more in favor of 0.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was thinking more like 1 maybe 2 worst case... there just wont be the wind to go with it i agree. How are the trees in the mountain by you? that area is known for having downed trees/limbs in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 they moved up the start time to the warnings to 7pm probably because of that... the one difference between before this event and before the start of yesterdays is the moisture levels right now are much lower than that of Sunday night/Monday morning... some of the initial light precip will evaporate... but that could hopefully help cool the column prior to the warm air beginning to push in Thanks, I am thinking the early the better for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This may sound like a stupid question, but do you believe there will be any areas in the LSV (Lancaster County, specifically) that DO NOT lose power? Normally that would be a no-brainer, but I believe it is a legitimate question with all the heavy wet snow on the trees right now. That's an almost impossible question to answer. It all depends on above ground lines vs. below ground and then the structure of the major feeder lines and how and where they interconnect to the local street lines. I would probably say that you should try to gauge things based upon previous ice storms that have the same apparent potential as this one appears to have. Admittedly, even now we cannot know exactly how much ice successfully accretes. Given that precip rates are anticipated to be heavy at times, that will definitely mean that not all of the liquid that falls accretes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But models are trending more in favor of 0.75". To get that much accretion is pretty hard if the rates are as heavy as modeled, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But models are trending more in favor of 0.75". yea but heavy rainfall rates will not accumulate to reach .75" on the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 After being 30, back to 29. Models think it should be 33 right now. So ya this is going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 high res NAM hourly plots show what some are talking about with perhaps a period of intense precip rates cooling the column and allowing snow to hang on a bit longer...(I think sleet will mix in but perhaps it keeps it more of a snow/sleet vs sleet/ice mixture). Below you can see just before the heaviest precip rates tonight where the 850 0 line is. Several hours later it has made virtually no progress. Then once the precip rates diminish it blasts north all the way to i80. This might save places in central PA from an awful ice event. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mag good maps! Seem pretty reasonable. Will be interesting to see what the totals tally is up around the Pa/Ny border. Edit: psuhoffman thanks for your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 yea but heavy rainfall rates will not accumulate to reach .75" on the trees I think we get to .5" at least. Temps during worst freezing rain supposed to be around 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 high of 28 back down to 26 with dew of 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i agree. How are the trees in the mountain by you? that area is known for having downed trees/limbs in these situations. I had many on my property with branches leaning yesterday... not quite as bad but still leaning this morning... PPL cleared out all trees near the power lines this summer so may luck out that way 18z HRRR really tries to get convective in the late frames... the precip type map shows sleet but the snow accumulation map has 2-3+" an hour rate for snow accumulation... interesting but I doubt believeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we get to .5" at least. Temps during worst freezing rain supposed to be around 25. at the surface certainly... there will be lots of ponding if indeed rain and not snow... just not seeing severe accretion on the trees to the level of widespread outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At being 30, back to 29. Models think it should be 33 right now. So ya this is going to be bad. wasn't our projected hight to be 32 today? i just don't think there is anyway to answer some of the questions that are being ask, imo. So many variables+ Location, location, location. I just think people need to be prepared for snow, sleet and or freezing rain. the worst freezing rain events i have seen through the years, was not heavy precip. it was light precip over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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