NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are "always" wrong. Whatever is going to happen will happen, and it's all completely outside our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 29 in Harrisburg, a bit of good news is lots of the stuff on lines and trees has melted off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My current call is 7" of 8-10:1 snow followed by a bit of sleet. Miller-B systems tend to do well here. The high rate of precipitation is also compelling. I may well go down with the ship, but that's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wtaj still has my area and north at 10-15" What are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm right with you. No idea why but have a good feeling. Blinded by yesterday's overperformer lol Man that RAP has the sleet/snow line somewhere between the two of us. Just gonna have to wait and see how this is going to pan out. Pretty confident the majority of precip for us is going to be of the snow/sleet variety... and that we'll either get 2-4 inches of snow and then get hammered by sleet at the height of the storm or get hammered by 6-8 inches of snow outright and mix when the precip lightens. Then tack on a glaze of light ZR at the end of either scenario. We're definitely going to be in the business of glacier building with this event. Starting to feel that the setup/track of this storm is going to yield an area of significant sleet somewhere in central or south central PA. I would define like 1-2" as a pretty significant dose of sleet. The transfer of the low just south of PA (or maybe just getting into SW PA coupled with solid CAD anchored in is going keep the warming aloft elevated (generally between 850mb-700mb) as well as mitigated some. 925mb level stays very cold in the central counties. Thus potential is there for a prolonged sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wth... We've over performed on the last several of these I'm sticking with 6 to 8 and going down with the ship!! Lol Good call Captain! ^^^ I'll go down with the ship too. 6 to 8" followed by light sleet is my final call for UNV. Maybe I am naive, but sleet does NOT "always" happen here. December 2012 was a Miller B with 8.5" of snow, and December 2013 featured another Miller B with 6" of snow. Both major snows were followed by light sleet. Looking at models now is just a fool's-game. Models are "always" wrong. Whatever is going to happen will happen, and it's all completely outside our control. I agree show time is 8 hrs away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wish our office would do this. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Edit: Is the snow pack from yesterday going to help at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Holy crap that's like a 1" QPF bullseye. Probably would be 2-4 inches of sleet in the light green, yellow, and orange assuming 3-4:1 ratios. I've only personally seen one event in the late 90s that delivered that kind of sleet here. Can't remember exactly how much but at least a few inches and its really hard to deal with or drive in. Some roads that have steep embankments immediately adjacent had feet of sleet on them because the sleet would roll down. Some of those piles lasted halfway through April too haha. I think that was the storm I refered to last nigh when I was at my parents cabin at Raystown. Huntingdon Co. Front end loaders needed to clear the road in steep embankment areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eric Horst seems rather bullish on his amounts for the northern tier still and it was posted after 1 (so he got to see the noon guidance) Here is his map https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/430764185085939712/photo/1 He has always been a conservative forecaster but his amounts are usually pretty close. The part about significant ICE accumulation for Lancaster is what has me troubled. Again FREEZING RAIN is not good, but lots of FREEZING RAIN is very bad and destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eric Horst seems rather bullish on his amounts for the northern tier still and it was posted after 1 (so he got to see the noon guidance) Here is his map https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/430764185085939712/photo/1 He has always been a conservative forecaster but his amounts are usually pretty close. The part about significant ICE accumulation for Lancaster is what has me troubled. Again FREEZING RAIN is not good, but lots of FREEZING RAIN is very bad and destructive. Just put the disco out 30min ago. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going up from Ligonier to SC for signing day. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Several things to keep in mind, the models have no knowledge of being right or wrong. I am sure that someone in the NWS or the model Each model is programmed differently so that they run differently, if multiple models pick up on something using different algorithms, then they are seeing something to note. Most models seem to over do precipitation. NWS Mets have told me that that they usually reduce qpf by 1/3. ( I teach Comp Sci at a local school) Now on to this situation: I think the NWS is using climatology instead of models to draw the FR rain/snow line. I have seen a big disconnect between NWS and TV mets. I think the issue is that no one knows where that line sets up. that will determine the amounts of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wish our office would do this. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Edit: Is the snow pack from yesterday going to help at all? Why does that ice slide have me in .75"+. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 3-6" total accum seems like a lock it in call for UNV at this point. Oh so close to something bigger but will be a fun event nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why does that ice slide have me in .75"+. lol "Respect the snow, Fear the ice" line on the last page made me chuckle. Fear the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why does that ice slide have me in .75"+. lol heck it has quite a few areas in the .75+ including mine (Lancaster). It is always interesting to see how each weather service office puts down amounts and then how different it is from one county to the adjacent county. I think Eastern you had shown that during yesterday's storm that LWX had higher amounts than CTP. So if reviewing CTP I am getting .1-.25 ice but if looking here I am getting possibly .75+. Just interesting to see how offices think even adjacent ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Driving 81 in the LSV and seeing all these trees hanging with snow has me concerned. Ice weight on top of that can bring a lot down. Hoping for sleet instead of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wish our office would do this. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Edit: Is the snow pack from yesterday going to help at all? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/pema/briefing.php I was sent a pdf in email but I cant find the link through the website other than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My map making is in progress, should have them out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I certainly hope that wpc map is more right than some of the other reports we have been listening to. For the majority of us there is a 60% probability that we do NOT see over 0.25" of ice accretion. So, the odds are stacked slightly in our favor against a major/crippling ice storm. However, that being said, like Sauss said earlier this morning...the majority of yesterday's snowfall accumulations on the trees is actually still on the trees as of 2:40pm. Temps appear to be cresting right around 30 degrees which isn't helping much in the overall melting process. The second concern is we have had almost no wind since the start of yesterday's storm right through to the present. When I went outside a bit earlier to knock some of the snow off of one of my delicate shrubs I discovered that the snow had frozen into massive clumps that would not easily come off. Temps were in the teens and even single digits last night which took all of the very high moisture content snow and turned all of it into frozen, sticky ice blocks. So, regardless of what form the precipitation takes tonight, with temps remaining below freezing everything stuck on all the trees is going to act like a magnet to allow either the snow or the freezing rain to immediately accumulate/accrete, progressively weighing down everything and compounding/magnifying the severity of the potential damage. I am definitely not a hypester, however, I believe that an incredible amount of tree destruction and power line damage may develop throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. I pray that the liquid from the storm becomes less, especially for us in the southern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What can help is the sleet - if falling hard enough and it looks to be the case - can actually help the trees by knocking the clumped snow off the branches. In that case, sleet is a bit of a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I certainly hope that wpc map is more right than some of the other reports we have been listening to. For the majority of us there is a 60% probability that we do NOT see over 0.25" of ice accretion. So, the odds are stacked slightly in our favor against a major/crippling ice storm. However, that being said, like Sauss said earlier this morning...the majority of yesterday's snowfall accumulations on the trees is actually still on the trees as of 2:40pm. Temps appear to be cresting right around 30 degrees which isn't helping much in the overall melting process. The second concern is we have had almost no wind since the start of yesterday's storm right through to the present. When I went outside a bit earlier to knock some of the snow off of one of my delicate shrubs I discovered that the snow had frozen into massive clumps that would not easily come off. Temps were in the teens and even single digits last night which took all of the very high moisture content snow and turned all of it into frozen, sticky ice blocks. So, regardless of what form the precipitation takes tonight, with temps remaining below freezing everything stuck on all the trees is going to act like a magnet to allow either the snow or the freezing rain to immediately accumulate/accrete, progressively weighing down everything and compounding/magnifying the severity of the potential damage. I am definitely not a hypester, however, I believe that an incredible amount of tree destruction and power line damage may develop throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. I pray that the liquid from the storm becomes less, especially for us in the southern half of the state. This may sound like a stupid question, but do you believe there will be any areas in the LSV (Lancaster County, specifically) that DO NOT lose power? Normally that would be a no-brainer, but I believe it is a legitimate question with all the heavy wet snow on the trees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This may sound like a stupid question, but do you believe there will be any areas in the LSV (Lancaster County, specifically) that DO NOT lose power? Normally that would be a no-brainer, but I believe it is a legitimate question with all the heavy wet snow on the trees right now. A lot of areas (including mine) have underground utilities which might help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is major icing south. Back up to over 1" qpf with at least .5" coming as freezing rain if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Walking around campus now. Lots of snow on the trees still. Conifers and shrubs took a big hit. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is major icing south. Back up to over 1" qpf with at least .5" coming as freezing rain if not more. The NAM's awful and has literally been all over the map with this system. I trust it less than the stupid groundhog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good god the NAM destroys the MDT LNS RDG area with ice later tonight... also hints as the idea of dynamic cooling in central PA perhaps holding things as more of a snow/sleet rather then sleet/ice mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I certainly hope that wpc map is more right than some of the other reports we have been listening to. For the majority of us there is a 60% probability that we do NOT see over 0.25" of ice accretion. So, the odds are stacked slightly in our favor against a major/crippling ice storm. However, that being said, like Sauss said earlier this morning...the majority of yesterday's snowfall accumulations on the trees is actually still on the trees as of 2:40pm. Temps appear to be cresting right around 30 degrees which isn't helping much in the overall melting process. The second concern is we have had almost no wind since the start of yesterday's storm right through to the present. When I went outside a bit earlier to knock some of the snow off of one of my delicate shrubs I discovered that the snow had frozen into massive clumps that would not easily come off. Temps were in the teens and even single digits last night which took all of the very high moisture content snow and turned all of it into frozen, sticky ice blocks. So, regardless of what form the precipitation takes tonight, with temps remaining below freezing everything stuck on all the trees is going to act like a magnet to allow either the snow or the freezing rain to immediately accumulate/accrete, progressively weighing down everything and compounding/magnifying the severity of the potential damage. I am definitely not a hypester, however, I believe that an incredible amount of tree destruction and power line damage may develop throughout the night and into tomorrow morning. I pray that the liquid from the storm becomes less, especially for us in the southern half of the state. my thoughts are that some southern areas that do end up more rain than sleet may see .50" rain but only .1-.2" ice because of the rainfall rates being too high for good accretion with temps near 30... I think there will be some power outages and trees down but more scattered than widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good god the NAM destroys the MDT LNS RDG area with ice later tonight... also hints as the idea of dynamic cooling in central PA perhaps holding things as more of a snow/sleet rather then sleet/ ice mix. Any snow on the front end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.