2014 HadGEM3 5 year forecast

[skierinvermont]

Since bluewave deleted his post but I thought it was interesting I will repost it. The forecast is produced by initializing a climate model, HadGEM3, with current conditions and running 10 ensemble members 5 years into the future.

 

Keep in mind that decadal forecasting has not shown much success yet, but the HadGEM3 model replaced HadCM3 last year and is supposed to be much more computationally complex. We will see if this makes a difference in its decadal forecasting power. It has shown some decent success in its hindcasts. You can see previous 5 year forecasts initialized 1960, 1965, 1970... 2005 in the graph below. It captures much of the deviation from CMIP5 un-ititialized projections.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc