mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is warm... 32 at IAD by 06z... MRB 31 by 09z Model war RGEM/NAM/HI-RES NAM vs GFS GFS was warmest for today and lead the pack, so my money's on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is warm... Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS was warmest for today and lead the pack, so my money's on it Short range, yup...bet on the GFS for this storm with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All of a sudden the GFS gets warm.Putting my money on it. I, like Trixie, value electricity. So I am good.Edit: lwx will have to adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not really buying much ice down towards DCA, .1-.2" possible around burbs of Baltimore. (Towson, Parkville, Pikesville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am dreading this a bit. We almost always over-perform on IP/FZRA events here in FDK. I'm cool with busting on that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Usually something like this is a north and west of I95 type deal...I could see I95 and downtown areas reporting a Trace to maybe .1 in isolated spots but I doubt more than that....but just northwest, itll increase and the usual spots, Frederick, Westminster Monkton are pretty much game for .25-.35 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haves and have-nots for ZR situations really color people's points of view. The posts in this thread suggest that I must be living on a different planet than most. The freezing rain events so far this winter have been as modeled or better and all had some impact. Nope- we're not talking about iced over roads everywhere or power outages, but the last event inconvenienced people (sidewalk spills galore) and the 12/8 event had saggy trees and icy roads less than 5 miles from the beltway. True, though at the same time a 0.25" ice event NW is about as common as a 0.1" ice event in DC.. pretty common, at least a once a winter or maybe more type of event? This is like the sun angle issue. The people who never get ice storms that are bad say ice storms always suck and the people who regularly close in on the potential to cause outages mark overplay their fear of icestorms. On a rare occasion we all freak out together before nothing happens. I think yes the events have been "better" than modeled but in many ways that's on the backside.. e.g., it takes longer for temps to warm than expected. I am not sure I'd expect the cold runs of the NAM to get any colder at this point or verify any colder. However, I have cleared a bit here and my grass is turning crispy. It's getting the squeeze play -- that pesky radiating frozen layer.. maybe it will have its day tomorrow. Plus.. again.. being cloudy all day would help the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any chance this event is like Dec 8, 09? We were supposed to be sleet and freezing rain on that one but got a couple inches of wet snow at the start in very heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any chance this event is like Dec 8, 09? We were supposed to be sleet and freezing rain on that one but got a couple inches of wet snow at the start in very heavy precip rates. I remember that. Got 3 inches in about an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I wish I could get an inch of sleet to shovel, but I'll be too mild so I will take my wall to wall rain and love it. I'm getting used to this. CAD wedge or not, tomorrow night my back yard is forecast to hit 33 for a low. Everyone will have sleet and zr but Woodbridge lol It's nice to have such an active pattern but the every few day rainstorm is getting old fast. I'd like cold and dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nws with winter storm warnings up for most that had a watch earlier. Baltimore city and south and east got ice advisories. DC with ice advisory. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z GFS does not appear to be remotely on board with problems for much of anyone near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Prob a night for DC to bust high on mins unless we get some better clearing but you can see the huge impact snowpack makes. Self sustaining winter. hires_t2m_min_washdc_4.png Spot on here. I didn't think I'd hit 26/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Spot on here. I didn't think I'd hit 26/27. It got this morning right for sure. 26 was my low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs looks terrible for ice . Model warmed up by 3 degrees overnight. How does nam look. Euro had jyo still at 32 at 7 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Gfs looks terrible for ice . Model warmed up by 3 degrees overnight. How does nam look. Euro had jyo still at 32 at 7 am Nam is warmer but still freezing rain....my guess is no go.....30-31 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Made it down to a low of 22 here. Models got warmer overnight for tonight here, and the 6Z NAM went dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Down to 17 here, expected high 31. Think I'll see some snow/sleet tonight for sure before the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think you can see where ice tonight will be a problem and, of course, it's the snow covered areas http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think you can see where ice tonight will be a problem and, of course, it's the snow covered areas http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxstate_br.php I think it'll be a little more than that. The snow covered areas would limit this to a very, very small portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Spot on Mitch. This is a by-product of our missing storm one (for those of us who missed it) is we likely miss storm two as well. Should be a njce event for Frederick , Westminster, parkton, leesburg folks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nothing but random weenie gut feelings and likely flawed logic, but this will be a minor event for the beltway. We should get cold enough, and the ground is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Spot on Mitch. This is a by-product of our missing storm one (for those of us who missed it) is we likely miss storm two as well. Should be a njce event for Frederick , Westminster, parkton, leesburg folks. Sent from my iPhone Blah ice. Give me more snow, someone else can have the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I find ice gorgeous. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think it would be cool to see ice on top of the heavily snow-coated trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If it rained right now it would be an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not to minimize concerns with power outages etc. with a legit ice storm , but I've been through several legit such storms the 10 years I lived in Memphis, and the pics afterwards are stunners. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the advisories and warnings lwx has up right now will verify. We've got high pressure and drier air still building in that will lower dews, and damming should be strong. Right along 95 probably won't reach warning criteria, but western parts of those counties should. It would be nice if we have some clear skies at sunset into early tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.