nj2va Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Always freezing rain, however a lot runs off. Thanks. Yeah, better depiction of what I tried to say (re: run off). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM looks like 4-5 hours of heavy sleet here, and then 6-8 hours of fzra/fzdz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol The city is going to have 10 minutes of ZR while the suburbs have 12 hours of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Updated disco from LWX .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. LOWPRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARDUP THE TN VALLEY. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THEAPPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW.THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO STRETCHSOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILLINCREASE WAA ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSSCENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AFTER SUNSET.PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAYEVENING AND IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIRCONTINUES TO OVERRUN SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE. TEMPS ALOFT WILLBE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAINCOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLANDINTO THE MID- ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...FREEZING RAIN IS A SIGNIFICANTCONCERN. THE WORST ICING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRALPORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST. A WINTERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. ICE FROM FREEZING RAINIS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA AS WELL.LOW PRESSURE WILL RE-DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATETUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING AWAY FROM THEAREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOREFREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAYMORNING. THE MORNING RUSH WILL BE IMPACTED BY FREEZING RAIN ACROSSTHE WATCH AREA AND THE MORNING RUSH MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED FARTHERSOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON DC ITS NEARBY SUBURBS. SIGNIFICANT ICEACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Serious freezing rain so rarely happens right around DC. It gest called for several+ times each winter and happens about once every 10 years. Significant sleet to significant freezing rain is even rarer. This reminds me on one about 3/4 years ago that was supposed to be world ender freezing rain and stayed 95% sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The city is going to have 10 minutes of ZR while the suburbs have 12 hours of it. I do think it may be another have/have not situation overall. I'd like to see the raw outputs colder than right at freezing to be too excited. I agree with mitchnick that the airmass isn't too impressive and is rather moist around here at least. We will bleed drier air in through the night though so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Prob a night for DC to bust high on mins unless we get some better clearing but you can see the huge impact snowpack makes. Self sustaining winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 by the way, if you want to get soundings from the models soon after they start getting posted on ncep, this is the place to go http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html here's a list of station identifiers to put into the left column http://forecast.weather.gov/stations.php?foo=2&dscnd=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My point and click just went up another tenth of an inch to a range from .1 to .3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My point and click just went up another tenth of an inch to a range from .1 to .3. NAM huggers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Freezing rain moves in on the HI-RES NAM around 01z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM huggers! Deep down inside, everyone hugs the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol NAM. I'll be glad when we get past this nuisance.You won't have it to kick around forever.Abstract Over the longer term (2015-2018) anticipated increases in NCEP's computing capacity as part of the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Funding Bill will allow for the possible convergence of the NAM, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (RAP/HRRR) and the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) into a high-resolution mesoscale ensemble system by 2018. Tentative plans include the establishment of both ARW-based and NMMB-based hourly data assimilation systems, hourly 18-h forecasts for RAP and NMMB parent and nest domains, and up to six (3 ARW, 3 NMMB ) 3 km ensemble members over the CONUS and Alaska run every 6 hours. Additional details on this initiative will be presented at the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i thought the 18z GFS was just as cold as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You won't have it to kick around forever. Abstract Over the longer term (2015-2018) anticipated increases in NCEP's computing capacity as part of the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Funding Bill will allow for the possible convergence of the NAM, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (RAP/HRRR) and the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) into a high-resolution mesoscale ensemble system by 2018. Tentative plans include the establishment of both ARW-based and NMMB-based hourly data assimilation systems, hourly 18-h forecasts for RAP and NMMB parent and nest domains, and up to six (3 ARW, 3 NMMB ) 3 km ensemble members over the CONUS and Alaska run every 6 hours. Additional details on this initiative will be presented at the conference. Just in time for DC's next 20"+ season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Prob a night for DC to bust high on mins unless we get some better clearing but you can see the huge impact snowpack makes. Self sustaining winter. hires_t2m_min_washdc_4.png Not necessarily. I'm at 29, this says my low will be 25. Definitely doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You won't have it to kick around forever. Abstract Over the longer term (2015-2018) anticipated increases in NCEP's computing capacity as part of the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental Funding Bill will allow for the possible convergence of the NAM, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (RAP/HRRR) and the NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) into a high-resolution mesoscale ensemble system by 2018. Tentative plans include the establishment of both ARW-based and NMMB-based hourly data assimilation systems, hourly 18-h forecasts for RAP and NMMB parent and nest domains, and up to six (3 ARW, 3 NMMB ) 3 km ensemble members over the CONUS and Alaska run every 6 hours. Additional details on this initiative will be presented at the conference. Thank God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Freezing rain moves in on the HI-RES NAM around 01z Temp reaches 32 at DCA 11z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I do think it may be another have/have not situation overall. I'd like to see the raw outputs colder than right at freezing to be too excited. I agree with mitchnick that the airmass isn't too impressive and is rather moist around here at least. We will bleed drier air in through the night though so we'll see. Haves and have-nots for ZR situations really color people's points of view. The posts in this thread suggest that I must be living on a different planet than most. The freezing rain events so far this winter have been as modeled or better and all had some impact. Nope- we're not talking about iced over roads everywhere or power outages, but the last event inconvenienced people (sidewalk spills galore) and the 12/8 event had saggy trees and icy roads less than 5 miles from the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temp reaches 32 at DCA 11z Yeah, the 32 line pretty much dances just SE of DCA from 5z on, per WxBell sim radar w/ 2m line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the NAM soundings from 18z to 0z have improved dramatically--if you prefer sleet to ZR. Thanks. Hate ZR. Would rather have rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I didn't realize LWX put us under a watch. Let's see if this really materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 oops--out here. I didn't check any other locations. Close enough. I am down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 oops--out here. I didn't check any other locations. I have sleet envy. I'll might get a burst at onset but you panhandle folks might measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 00z RGEM shows 16mm (~0.6" QPF) of freezing rain before turning to rain in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 oops--out here. I didn't check any other locations.The model has the sleet over the eastern panhandle expanding in coverage through midnight, when it is at its most widespread. Then we flip to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Strong CAD signal at 925mb at 24 hrs on 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nam has thunder sleet Thunder sleet is awesome. Been there, done that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS is warm... 32 at IAD by 06z... MRB 31 by 09z Model war RGEM/NAM/HI-RES NAM vs GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All of a sudden the GFS gets warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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