mattie g Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If this were the beginning of winter, we'd be on page #20 by now for this threat. But since so many of us have fallen victim to high expectations so far this winter, we know it's not going to play out as the guidance is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So is this threat over with no chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 personally, I think we have a better chance of wintry precip with this event than the weekend one it's be nice to get it even colder to squeeze some snow out of it on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But since so many of us have fallen victim to high expectations so far this winter, we know it's not going to play out as the guidance is suggesting. Cut everything in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Leesburg became Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Leesburg became Ji. Look at what Leesburg just posted in the 2/8-2/10 thread. Just had to respond with something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This feels like one of those....you know...yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So is this threat over with no chance? Pretty much. 21z gfs just pulled the plug. Looks pretty solid in PA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty much. 21z gfs just pulled the plug. Looks pretty solid in PA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have no interest in ice. zr is ok if its brief or transitional...otherwise I have no use for it nor do I find it appealing. Gimme the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty much. 21z gfs just pulled the plug. Looks pretty solid in PA though. is that model run available in the VIP lounge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll probably do pretty well. Models tend to displace entrenched air-masses too quickly, which is part of the reason why we always cool slower than the modeled when we are at 60 the day before a snowstorm. In this case, that principle works in our favor. I really wouldn't be surprised if the NAM isn't that overdone. Didn't you just post you were going to get 0.05? That's pretty weak even by our standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But since so many of us have fallen victim to high expectations so far this winter, we know it's not going to play out as the guidance is suggesting. No, generally this winter has gone well. Got a surprise half inch on 1/28 when I was expecting a coating, got 4 inches on 1/2 when I was expecting 1-2, 1/21 performed well, etc. 12/10 was a disappointment, but still got almost 2 inches, and today was disappointing but it was clear we weren't doing well by yesterday. There was some clipper that under-preformed, but no big busts really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Didn't you just post you were going to get 0.05? That's pretty weak even by out standards. Maybe. My expectations were to high on 12/8. I thought I would get .25 and I got .175. Maybe I'll get closer to .1 It really sounds like we are pathetically tracking a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think the snowpack areas will probably end up with the brunt of any major impact if it gets that big. But that big frozen cold source to the north may also help counteract the somewhat marginal air mass otherwise. Something like the 18z hi res nam give pause but most other guidance is pretty marginal in much of the local county area. Just lee of the Apps, then up into the warned corridor obviously more at risk but doesn't necessarily look like a massive event most of those spots either. The WV/WMD conjunction zone could in theory go big. Pros are we keep bleeding fresh cold in thru the morning then probably don't see much sunshine tomorrow. Get your wet bulb info ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My point and click now says .1 - .2 of ice accumulation, but no advisory or watch posted. Must be .25 or higher for a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If p/c's are any indication, which is unlikely, we will advisories go up. They're showing upwards of three tenths of ice outside of the watches. Mmm, you sure? My understanding was a watch would be issued if .25 or higher of ice is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this looks fairly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My forecast calls for .1 to .3 No watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ^ shrug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this looks fairly reasonable. StormTotalIce.png With that, I would think Loudoun would be in the watch or at least winter wx advisory. .15-.25 can do some damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 this looks fairly reasonable. StormTotalIce.png So you are calling for an adv in DC? Solid choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So you are calling for an adv in DC? Solid choice I guess.. tho DC might be on the line. I could see DCA be 34 and rain while it's 32 at my place with some light icing. 0.1" It's a good start. See what the models do tonight.. it's potentially close for a good chunk of time, though I think even in a cold scenario the rates will keep it from being super terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014MDZ007-009>011-VAZ027-029>031-040-042-501-040945-/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAYEVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO ONE INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION. POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh good ppl can stop complaining about their lack of a watch now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For damn sure! I got a watch! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We act like it isn't happening without a watch. It's also funny in severe season how we start forecasting what probabilities the SPC will put in the convective outlooks. Forecasting the forecasts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh good ppl can stop complaining about their lack of a watch now I don't have a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 idk, I'm not struck with the notion that there is very cold air waiting to move in here very quickly humidity is high and there isn't real cold air that close high temp for mby from the NWS is around 34; if that fails and it gets to the upper 30's, no ice in light of cloud cover moving in tomorrow evening...just not seeing it but I guess the models see the cold air getting here fast (when was the last time I saw that...let me think...ahh, yes...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My 30th watch of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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