snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And it looks like the NAM has support wrt temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We counting all liquid falling as ice accretion again? That usually works terribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We counting all liquid falling as ice accretion again? That usually works terribly. Heavy precip at 31.5 degrees is usually a good recipe for icing around I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We counting all liquid falling as ice accretion again? That usually works terribly. I think .25 - .50 is pretty likely for the favored spots. Above .5 is pretty rare and even raw temps are only in the mid 20's. Upper teens to start and it would be one for the books but we're pretty far off that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What it's telling me is that this could cause problems with schools and power especially north and west of 95 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think .25 - .50 is pretty likely for the favored spots. Above .5 is pretty rare and even raw temps are only in the mid 20's. Upper teens to start and it would be one for the books but we're pretty far off that mark. I'm guessing we'll both be at 32.5 and miserable for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm guessing we'll both be at 32.5 and miserable for this. Yea, guidance has both of us between 26-28 @ 7pm tomorrow. If I'm at 31 at that time I won't even look out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Heavy precip at 31.5 degrees is usually a good recipe for icing around I-95. We need LC to show up and wish an inch of ice on western MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 blue line is freezing. orange = mix, red = zr. right/wrong? Correct. Orange is sleet. One helluva CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yea, guidance has both of us between 26-28 @ 7pm tomorrow. If I'm at 31 at that time I won't even look out the window. We'll see. MOS is warmer than raw as usual and is probably more right. It only gets places like Dulles to barely freezing or 31 for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We counting all liquid falling as ice accretion again? That usually works terribly. I wasn't intending to do so, just listed what Cobb had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I wasn't intending to do so, just listed what Cobb had Wasn't really referring to you.. it's just something that is done every time there's an ice risk for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What are the chances of snow and/or sleet up front? That would help with ice. Also, did someone say the euro is the coldest at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What are the chances of snow and/or sleet up front? That would help with ice. Also, did someone say the euro is the coldest at this time? NAM is coldest for sure. Verbatim NAM would be major icing for everyone 95 and west, which we know is bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll take the under prog. on the GFS N+W of the fall line. Chalk it up to resolution (both vertical and horizontal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, all guidance is pretty cold for areas that normally don't see much ice. Those areas that normally score should prob take some precautions tomorrow. Like liquor and beer precautions Will take mental note. Need Rye. Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking .05 ice accretion in my backyard is a pretty good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking .05 ice accretion in my backyard is a pretty good call. If ice accretes and you can't see it, does it actually accrete? Something to ponder in flat-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll have my loupe handy. I will find ice somewhere. If ice accretes and you can't see it, does it actually accrete? Something to ponder in flat-land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll have my loupe handy. I will find ice somewhere. Don't you keep it in your night table?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z gfs was alarmingly cold for leesburg. Where is my watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z gfs was alarmingly cold for leesburg. Where is my watch? Nam has thunder sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I have a feeling lwx will be playing catch up here. We seem to do ok wrt to ice. Remember back in Dec kept on extending ice storm warning for us all day long. At least we have the cold air now in place not waiting for it. 18z gfs was alarmingly cold for leesburg. Where is my watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If this were the beginning of winter, we'd be on page #20 by now for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My point and click now says a tenth of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We'll probably do pretty well. Models tend to displace entrenched air-masses too quickly, which is part of the reason why we always cool slower than the modeled when we are at 60 the day before a snowstorm. In this case, that principle works in our favor. I really wouldn't be surprised if the NAM isn't that overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My point and click now says .1 - .2 of ice accumulation, but no advisory or watch posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Bufkit data for the 18Z GFS is pretty wacky. At HGR it has 7" of snow followed by an inch of freezing rain. At MRB it has over an inch of sleet and three-quarters of an inch of freezing rain. Should be fun seeing how things evolve over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If p/c's are any indication, which is unlikely, we will advisories go up. They're showing upwards of three tenths of ice outside of the watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What it's telling me is that this could cause problems with schools and power especially north and west of 95 Really going out on a limb with that call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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