stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 First call for MBY: 15 minute period of sleet, Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 At HGR: 12Z NAM has 0.98" FZRA, with 0.79" falling with sub-30 temps. 12Z GFS has 1.34" frozen, with temps 24-25 at onset, slowly climbing to 30 toward the end of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 First call for MBY: 15 minute period of sleet, Rain. Pretty bullish IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro is pretty cold. mid to upper 20's west of 95 @ 7pm. Freezing line still east of 95 @ 1am with .2+ falling for most. Verbatim the euro is a legitimate ice storm i95 and west. heh. We'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro is pretty cold. mid to upper 20's west of 95 @ 7pm. Freezing line still east of 95 @ 1am with .2+ falling for most. Looks nasty ice storm for those north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks nasty ice storm for those north and west of the city. Just like the Nasty snowstorm it showed north and west yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks nasty ice storm for those north and west of the city. it sure does. I'm still @ 30 at 1am and up to 33 @ 7am. Lots of precip. I have a lot of doubts imby but not to far away could be in for a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just like the Nasty snowstorm it showed north and west yesterday? Pretty much, one difference is the cold air will already be place instead of trying to get here. I'm still almost 36 here, certainly warmer than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 it sure does. I'm still @ 30 at 1am and up to 33 @ 7am. Lots of precip. I have a lot of doubts imby but not to far away could be in for a high impact event. Winter Storm Watches up this afternoon for the exact same counties that had them yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Watches up this afternoon for the exact same counties that had them yesterday? Probably... would agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 it sure does. I'm still @ 30 at 1am and up to 33 @ 7am. Lots of precip. I have a lot of doubts imby but not to far away could be in for a high impact event. I wasn't thinking so much you but the guys out towards Frederick, Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Watches up this afternoon for the exact same counties that had them yesterday? I'm not sure what I think to be honest. Much will depend on temps tomorrow. Showing me at 26 at 7pm is kinda suspect imo. FDK valley could get crushed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I was thinking so much you but the guys out towards Frederick, Winchester. Did you notice that it bring sub zero 850's southward from 7pm - 1am? Not saying snow or anything. Just that the cold air drain may be pretty stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did you notice that it bring sub zero 850's southward from 7pm - 1am? Not saying snow or anything. Just that the cold air drain may be pretty stubborn. i think Wes was politely trying to tell you that you aren't west enough to be called west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter Storm Watches up this afternoon for the exact same counties that had them yesterday? They can then notch them back to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Did you notice that it bring sub zero 850's southward from 7pm - 1am? Not saying snow or anything. Just that the cold air drain may be pretty stubborn. Probably evaporational cooling as the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i think Wes was politely trying to tell you that you aren't west enough to be called west Lol- I already know I'm out. I'll start with a glaze and when heavier rates move in it will wash away even though I'm still sub freezing. I'm surprised that all guidance is moving towards a pretty good ice event in the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i think Wes was politely trying to tell you that you aren't west enough to be called west Compared to me he is north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 A general question here (and this is not meant as criticism). From what I can see, the METs in this forum seem to really have their thumb on the pulse of weather in the region. All models are reviewed and discussed, and although there is normally some level of disagreement between the METs, ultimately just about every possibility is raised prior to a weather event. To the point where I don't even check the local weather reports, weather.com, noaa.gov, or any other source. That being said, why does anyone really care whether the NWS issues a warning/watch/advisory? Isn't this forum, collectively, looking at the same information, guidance, modeling, etc. as the NWS, but the difference being that the METs here analyze it to the point of exhaustion? How can the NWS possibly have the resources to do this type of analysis for every area in the United States? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WSW already posted for Garrett County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 A general question here (and this is not meant as criticism). From what I can see, the METs in this forum seem to really have their thumb on the pulse of weather in the region. All models are reviewed and discussed, and although there is normally some level of disagreement between the METs, ultimately just about every possibility is raised prior to a weather event. To the point where I don't even check the local weather reports, weather.com, noaa.gov, or any other source. That being said, why does anyone really care whether the NWS issues a warning/watch/advisory? Isn't this forum, collectively, looking at the same information, guidance, modeling, etc. as the NWS, but the difference being that the METs here analyze it to the point of exhaustion? How can the NWS possibly have the resources to do this type of analysis for every area in the United States? Two notes: 1) Many of the mets in this sub forum are from the DC area and don't discuss weather outside that immediate area too much. 2) Despite all of the discussions, the mets in this sub forum rarely issue a forecast directly (some do indirectly through other venues like CWG). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS gives me 1.58 of ZR. Iget 1.40 of that with temps below 30. Ugly stuff man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS gives me 1.58 of ZR. Iget 1.40 of that with temps below 30. Ugly stuff man. We can call this the "nasty" storm. Really don't like freezing rain. Let us try to confine this Winchester and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can't see too many details since I don't pay for Euro access, but it looks like it supports the idea of a high-impact ice event for here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can't see too many details since I don't pay for Euro access, but it looks like it supports the idea of a high-impact ice event for here tomorrow night. yes, the euro is the coldest of all guidance at the surface so far. Mid to upper 20's through the night for you and something close to 1" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yes, the euro is the coldest of all guidance at the surface so far. Mid to upper 20's through the night for you and something close to 1" liquid. That would add up to a crippling ice storm. Better strap on some ice crampons or ice skates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Pretty nasty sounding at MRB on 18z NAM at 36hrs... +5 to +6 at 775-800mb level and heavy ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 MDZ501-502-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-040415- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER... MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM... PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 MDZ003>005-040415- /O.CAN.KLWX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140203T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER 312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It almost looks like DCA doesnt even get above 32 Tues night at all looking at the 18z NAM 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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