Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can someone explain what we want wet bulb temps to be and why? Well do you want ice? If you want ice we'd want wet bulb to be below freezing or we wouldn't have good temps for frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wet bulb temps are the temperature we would get to with evaporation cooling once the precip moves in or humidity hits 100%....Its a big reason you see temps drop big time once precip starts sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here ya go. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=MD&time=current&field=bulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Does anyone think that having the chesapeake bay partially frozen and the water temp so cold may help delay warming a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 32/24. Might be tough to squeeze 29 but I'll root for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 27/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'll take my wall to wall rain and I will love it. It's 36 degrees here. We will not get one molecule of freezing rain or sleet. I am just bitterly disappointed that I will get another big rainstorm with no ice or sleet. This is going to be an EPIC, EPIC week --- for a lot of RAIN in northern Virginia on the fall line and well east of the mountains. Back to our usual "winter" weather. meh You know what the worst part is? It isnt the rain tonight thru tomorrow. Its the time of the year we are now in. Day by day our time is running out. We were so damn cold for months, and now this is what shall happen: usual Washingtonian cold/dry moisture-starved, then less cold/rainy or outright mild/rainy with plenty of qpf. Day by day and week by week the sun angle is getting stronger and we will become unluckier and unluckier. The average temperature in Woodbridge will crest 50 degrees by late month. With each rainy debacle, our time is running. I'm going to drown in all this plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You can come to me i have a generator, as long as i can use your pool in the summer . Back up weenie boy, she's still in pool access negotiations with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I always find the latest LAV (GFS-based LAMP guidance) works pretty well going into an event like this where surface temps will be critical. Keep in mind the LAV guidance updates hourly. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/statebull.shtml Bookmarked. Thanks.27/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 34/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here ya go. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=MD&time=current&field=bulbNice didn't know they had one. If any area might easily bust low it's east of DC. Though that area will also warm the most efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Does anyone think that having the chesapeake bay partially frozen and the water temp so cold may help delay warming a bit? Well it certainly won't hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the 20's now. I'm guessing I should expect delays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 26.9°F even with the lowering and thickening clouds with a dewpoint of 22°F after a high of 31.8°F. There's a cool NNE wind of 4 mph coming off the snowpack just to my north although I still have a patchy 1/2" of sleet on the ground. The puddles on my walk to the front door remained frozen all day so I'm expecting icing from the first drops. Temp dropped from 31F to 26F in 90 minutes once the sun when down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 31/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LWX update didn't really change anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LWX update didn't really change anything. StormTotalIce.png Surprising based on some of the short range runs this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 29.7/23 in Parkville. Been cloudy since about 3:30, with temps still dropping steadily. Not expecting much in the way of FZR, being that I'm so close to 95, but curious as to how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LWX update didn't really change anything. StormTotalIce.png So they will be on point with their forecast? Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Surprising based on some of the short range runs this afternoon Maybe.. I don't think things have changed all that much. We'll have to see how things set up once precip increases.. assuming it does.. it keeps seeming later/lighter. The less precip overnight could impact any risk for most of the city region at least.. RAP2 still blows warm air north pretty quick too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 26.9°F even with the lowering and thickening clouds with a dewpoint of 22°F after a high of 31.8°F. There's a cool NNE wind of 4 mph coming off the snowpack just to my north although I still have a patchy 1/2" of sleet on the ground. The puddles on my walk to the front door remained frozen all day so I'm expecting icing from the first drops. Temp dropped from 31F to 26F in 90 minutes once the sun when down. I was hoping you would post an obs. I ran some errands into Damascus and when I entered town the temp was around 30 and by the time I left it was down to 26. The air flow from the NNE has been pretty constant during the day. I have about an inch of compacted snow in MBY and unfortunately frozen solid on my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 30/23 in Lauraville, and the above-mentioned 29.7/23 in Parkville. I am right in between those two obs stations. It is still 37 in downtown balt in the Mt. Vernon neighborhood. That is a seven degree difference in just the five miles between my work and my house. Urban heat island for damn sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The most interesting HRRR is very interesting... The frozen line remains just north of DC until 8am where it jumps just south of I70. Through 8am it is very wet, with .5 plus DC north and 1 in plus in N MD. It also prints out 1-4 inches of snow for the Northern counties, though obviously that may be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Maybe.. I don't think things have changed all that much. We'll have to see how things set up once precip increases.. assuming it does.. it keeps seeming later/lighter. The less precip overnight could impact any risk for most of the city region at least.. RAP2 still blows warm air north pretty quick too. Yeah, all that's been happening this afternoon is that we have data to support that this might not be a bust temp-wise, allowing for a touch of freezing rain even into/close to the cities. It's not like we are all of a sudden facing something completely unforeseen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Updated wetbulb map for 23z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Checklist for a bust: Under an LWX advisory: Check Roads brined: Check Plows stationed everywhere: Check Car thermometer above freezing (35) with no moon visible: Check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 LWX expanded Freezing Rain advisories to Southern MD and Northern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Checklist for a bust: Under an LWX advisory: Check Roads brined: Check Plows stationed everywhere: Check Car thermometer above freezing (35) with no moon visible: Check spot on I'd +1 you if it were possible on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, all that's been happening this afternoon is that we have data to support that this might not be a bust temp-wise, allowing for a touch of freezing rain even into/close to the cities. It's not like we are all of a sudden facing something completely unforeseen...Yeah mostly. I do think the areas with no real ice forecast may see a little at this pt. Any significant ice should still be where the forecasts have it. The northern Md area is also much more consistently in solid precip overnight where it might be more spotty around here on te whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 29/ 23 Here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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