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Feb 4-5 2014 storm


ravensrule

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Whoops LWX

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY. INITIAL
WEAK WAVE IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. SOMEWHAT INTERESTING 12Z GFS RUN FOR
SUNDAY WITH PRIMARY LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW TRACKING BETWEEN NORFOLK AND SOUTHERN MD.
GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW IS IMPRESSIVE AND HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS FOR
SUNDAY. PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE GFS LOOKS TO BE RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND IS SUPPORTED BY COASTAL LOW TRACK THIS
FAR NORTH. NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROS LOOKS MORE HAZARDOUS AS SNOW
AND WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY. STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER...BUT PRECIPITATION /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/ WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. ECMWF
SHOWS A COUPLE OF LOWS PUSHING MORE OFFSHORE...BUT STILL MAINTAINS
SOME PRECIP AND WIND WITH MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ECMWF ALSO NOW COLDER AND SUPPORTS ALL SNOW FOR
SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN SETS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKING LIKELY.

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Yup most of the big ice events i have experienced in my life have been light but long duration.

 

We had a storm in NJ on Feb 14, 2007 where the temp was steady at 31.5  with moderate rain and a good portion of it froze.  Sure there were some puddles but the cars were covered, roads were a skating rink, trees were frozen, and you could hear the classic "frozen branch" noise when the wind blew. Was a mess.

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Whoops LWX

 

.

 

Click on "Highlight Changed Discussion"

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXPANDED INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE

MAP ALREADY SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH

CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN IN PLACE ALL DAY...WITH STRATUS ALSO LOCATED

OVER THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY/FOOTHILLS. EXPECT STRATUS TO

EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE EXISTS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW

WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY...BUT AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN AND LIFT

INCREASES PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID

EVENING. DIDN/T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR P-TYPE

ONSET...POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE

NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THEN TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING

RAIN. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR WET BULBING AND MORE SNOW/SLEET

AT THE ONSET...BUT STILL BELIEVE THE MAIN IMPACT OVER THE CWA WILL

BE ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN.

WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS...A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE IN THE

WARNING...AND AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE ADVISORY. STILL

EXPECT ALL RAIN FROM ORANGE OVER THE LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...BUT

SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS

EVENING IN CASE THE ADVISORY WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR A PERIOD

OF FREEZING RAIN.

FREEZING RAIN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE

WHERE COLD AIR WILL TAKE ITS TIME BEING ERODED. WARNING GOES UNTIL 1

PM IN THIS AREA. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE

AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE QPF AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.

CURRENT QPF IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER 1 INCH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT

FLOOD POTENTIAL. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LEANED TOWARD A MAV/MET BLEND BUT UNDERCUT

TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY

VALLEYS/NEAR MASON DIXON LINE/ AS MODELS TEND TO WARM SURFACE

TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TOO SOON IN A COLD WEDGE.

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32.9 at the weather station closest to my house, 38.5 at the weather station in Mt. Vernon neigborhood near my workplace in downtown Balt. Looks like that Mt. Vernon reading is the warm outlier, the other weather station readings inside the Beltway in Balt are 33 and 34 for the most part with one 35. Towson down to 32.

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So did most areas under perform on temps today? I just noticed that DCA dropped a degree to 38

Around here they appears generally on target.. my forecast last night was mid-30s to upper 30s locally. 

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Around here they appears generally on target.. my forecast last night was mid-30s to upper 30s locally. 

 

Yea, I thought the forecasts were accurate within a degree or 2 pretty much everywhere. I agree about light precip. Light rain and 30 will stick. Maybe not traveled roads but just about everywhere else. I'm hoping for 28-29 @ onset just for fun. 

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