ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let's talk about the .1 of freezing rain on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let's talk about the .1 of freezing rain on the way. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I passed a rule that my name will never be associated with a storm again. c'mon man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Another overhyped FZRA event that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Another overhyped FZRA event that won't happen. Well, if we choose to believe it, 12z GFS says DCA is still below freezing at 6z WED... pretty bad ice storm BR and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Few things are more exciting than an early Feb rainstorm that may begin as a couple hours of freezing drizzle that could possibly accrete on windshields and tree limbs. ALL IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I passed a rule that my name will never be associated with a storm again. c'mon man. Sorry after your outburst last night i could not resist. Nice cache . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, if we choose to believe it, 12z GFS says DCA is still below freezing at 6z WED... pretty bad ice storm BR and west Figures that this would be the event that trends colder..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 That is cold IAN, changing my thread title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, if we choose to believe it, 12z GFS says DCA is still below freezing at 6z WED... pretty bad ice storm BR and west GFS and NAM nailed the temps today so I can see why we are excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Figures that this would be the event that trends colder..... Well by 9z, IAD is above freezing so its quick hitter... but MRB/Winchester area still below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 havent looked at soundings but I wouldnt be surprised if we all start as a bit of sleet or snow...looks pretty bad for the usual spots..MRB, HGR definitely no snow for DC based on GFS...start as sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12Z NAM has ~10hrs of freezing rain for westminster 06z GFS had some snow, then freezing rain, then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sorry after your outburst last night i could not resist. Nice cache . Lol- we're good. But you are still insane for even mentioning a preference for a north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol- we're good. But you are still insane for even mentioning a preference for a north trend. That was a total tounge in cheek joke i cannot believe you actually thought i was serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS and NAM nailed the temps today so I can see why we are excited. The GFS actually did very well not sure what you are talking about. It was the best of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That was a total tounge in cheek joke i cannot believe you actually thought i was serious. Serious or not those words shall not be mentioned. Storms have ears you know. That's vort 101 stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I would pad temps all around after today. Weenie comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS actually did very well not sure what you are talking about. It was the best of all the models. Forget about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Serious or not those words shall not be mentioned. Storms have ears you know. That's vort 101 stuff right there. I thought after your pics last night its ears got clogged up and could not hear. Sorry my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The GFS actually did very well not sure what you are talking about. It was the best of all the models. not around here.. even MOS was too cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS starts the event as snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley and north. Our 2m temp does not go above freezing on Wednesday. Nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 not around here.. even MOS was too cold here. The 2m temps were spot on here it was the 850's they were off on. And in tomorrows setup we only care about 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12Z GFS has < 32 here through 15Z on Wednesday. Over an inch of liquid falls before then. Best thing may be that the freezing rain seems to fall pretty heavily, which could limit accretion. The overnight hours will probably still be pretty tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS starts the event as snow for the northern Shenandoah Valley and north. Our 2m temp does not go above freezing on Wednesday. Nasty! 06z GFS output has ~.3 of snow before the freezing rain for Westminster. Perfect for the morning commute, couple inches of snow, followed by a layer of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 2m temps were spot on here it was the 850's they were off on. And in tomorrows setup we only care about 2m temps. Glancing at yday again looks like it was cold everywhere other than where it snowed. Model raw temps are almost always too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Glancing at yday again looks like it was cold everywhere other than where it snowed. Model raw temps are almost always too cold. Then i stand corrected, i thought they were within 1 degree of my temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Then i stand corrected, i thought they were within 1 degree of my temps.It should hopefully be minor short range but the model warned as we closed anyway and it was a situation where a few degrees really mattered. In most cases MOS is superior tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Gfs is pretty nasty...but like we all know...heavy rain at 30-31 isn't really freezing rain...might make a pretty tree pic or mailbox pic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I know we're all wary of model temps as we should be--- but in terms of *this* particular winter so far, each of the 3 ZR events pretty much verified as modeled, model temps and all, with the first one (12/8) maybe overperforming a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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