Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So, just looking at the Euro snowfall map, this solution produces a region-wide 8-14 inch storm. Just out of curiosity, what would have to be different for the solution to show some 20+ bulbs? I'm only curious because it sounds like this is a great setup, and yet no crazy heavy accumulations. Thanks in advance! you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too 8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wait for it to get in the NAM's wheelhouse and you will probably see 20+! The problem is you don't want it to get too amped up early because it will cut and then you go back to the Miller B slop. If it stays miller A and slows down once it gets into the atlantic you should be good. DC has I believe eight 15"+ storms dating back to the 1880's, so I doubt we will be "good"...There is a 100 times better chance we get a 3-6" storm or smaller than a 15"+...literally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Skip the snowfall map for now...concentrate on storm track and storm ingredients now. Accum can be finalized later in the week. Sure, completely understand the point. Just enjoy learning as I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too 8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania Appreciate the detailed response. I'm originally from Johnstown, where that type of storm might be 'pedestrian'...now that I'm out of the Laurels, 8-14 is a bonanza for me as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 tracking this storm and watching it fail at the last minute will be a lot easier to do now that my family isn't around to taunt me about today's forecast bust...I did warn them first, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The fact that Dr. No.. is saying Maybe is remarkable. Sunday is so far away... get me to Wed 00z .. if we still have general global model consensus by then (and they all show a snow storm).. then sh%$ starts to get real... for now.. be happy that we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Marty's good....that should boost weenies spirits. Mine are being boosted by the snow flakes I'm finally seeing. I don't know of him specifically but since you worked there I assume most folks in the building are good at what they do. Certainly a plus to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The fact that Dr. No.. is saying Maybe is remarkable. Sunday is so far away... get me to Wed 00z .. if we still have general global model consensus by then (and they all show a snow storm).. then sh%$ starts to get real... for now.. be happy that we have something to track. It would be one thing if it was on its own. But EVERY model has a big storm for this weekend. The evolution is different between them. But there is going to be a bomb on the coast. Lets all hope its a Miller A. And also. The signal has been on the models for almost a week at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Which eps, the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Nice, very nice That would be the Euro ones, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LWX saying 40 and 70% chance of rain for Sunday in St. Mary's. What are they basing that off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LWX saying 40 and 70% chance of rain for Sunday in St. Mary's. What are they basing that off of? TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Which eps, the GEFS? I've been using eps for euro ensembles. Just a shorter way to put it and it's what wxbell calls it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ensembles are amazing. Obviously not as amped up as the OP run but huge signal. Surface low from the SE states to OBX to the 40/70. Tons of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too 8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania Appreciate the detailed response. I'm originally from Johnstown, where that type of storm might be 'pedestrian'...now that I'm out of the Laurels, 8-14 is a bonanza for me as well! PaxPatriot: As an example of what it would take to make this a larger storm. This post on another thread shows in images the differences between the 2010 super bomb and the possible one for this weekend: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2720287 Notice on the bottom frame the vort (Black X) off the coast. Notice the black circle? That's an occluded low. Bottom line on those is it slows the system down dramatically because it's disconnected some from the jet stream and can't be forced along. Those give us the 20"+ bombs. Still, 8-14". I'd love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It would be one thing if it was on its own. But EVERY model has a big storm for this weekend. The evolution is different between them. But there is going to be a bomb on the coast. Lets all hope its a Miller A. And also. The signal has been on the models for almost a week at this point. Could easily cut... although all the signs are pointing toward a big event... we could wake up tomorrow morning with a snow storm in the Ohio Valley... it is still a little early in the game IMHO... but please... please .. please be right... I just want real snow storm for once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 TWC same ones that said 5-8 for DC today, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Wish we could see those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Euro ensembles are amazing. Obviously not as amped up as the OP run but huge signal. Surface low from the SE states to OBX to the 40/70. Tons of QPF. They're really quite beautiful at this lead. Best look all year by 1,000 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 They're really quite beautiful at this lead. Best look all year by 1,000 miles. Bob, this isn't right, stop teasing. We need images. It's like a peep show and all the holes are full. Wait, that didn't come out quite right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, eps supports a miller A. H5, mslp, and precip panels looks really good. I mean really good. Gonna be a fun week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too 8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania And really, this weekend setup is today's Canadian setup shifted a little more south with confluence/block etc. Expectations should currently be a "redo" for today's potential accumulations again Sunday...not some 2009-10 bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The vortex near the maritimes and block west of greenland are super solid @ h5. It really looks just like a smoothed out version of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Bob, this isn't right, stop teasing. We need images. It's like a peep show and all the holes are full. Wait, that didn't come out quite right. I can't. I want to. Believe me but I'm not supposed to. Posting the op here and there is ok because there are public sources for that. Ensemble stuff is different. I really don't want to cause unnecessary trouble for myself. I push it as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 same ones that said 5-8 for DC today, right? they only had me at 3-5" this morning and at lunch time, when the radar was almost dry, lowered it to 2" yeah, same ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this is why I find it hard to get excited over a 5 day Euro forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Our whole area is in back to back 6 hour panels @ .15 - .25 contours. And a follow up .10 - .15 on the tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this is why I find it hard to get excited over a 5 day Euro forecast I agree mitch but after looking at the EPS run I can't help but to think about believing the chance exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this is why I find it hard to get excited over a 5 day Euro forecast Didnt that kind of verify? I mean take that and adjust it south like 50 miles and isnt that what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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