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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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So, just looking at the Euro snowfall map, this solution produces a region-wide 8-14 inch storm. Just out of curiosity, what would have to be different for the solution to show some 20+ bulbs? I'm only curious because it sounds like this is a great setup, and yet no crazy heavy accumulations. Thanks in advance!

 

you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too

 

8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania

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Wait for it to get in the NAM's wheelhouse and you will probably see 20+!  The problem is you don't want it to get too amped up early because it will cut and then you go back to the Miller B slop.  If it stays miller A and slows down once it gets into the atlantic you should be good.

 

DC has I believe eight 15"+ storms dating back to the 1880's, so I doubt we will be "good"...There is a 100 times better chance we get a 3-6" storm or smaller than a 15"+...literally...

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you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too

 

8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania

Appreciate the detailed response. I'm originally from Johnstown, where that type of storm might be 'pedestrian'...now that I'm out of the Laurels, 8-14 is a bonanza for me as well!

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The fact that Dr. No.. is saying Maybe is remarkable.  Sunday is so far away... get me to Wed 00z .. if we still have general global model consensus by then (and they all show a snow storm).. then sh%$ starts to get real... for now.. be happy that we have something to track. 

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Marty's good....that should boost weenies spirits.  Mine are being boosted by the snow flakes I'm finally seeing. 

I don't know of him specifically but since you worked there I assume most folks in the building are good at what they do.  Certainly a plus to see. :) 

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The fact that Dr. No.. is saying Maybe is remarkable.  Sunday is so far away... get me to Wed 00z .. if we still have general global model consensus by then (and they all show a snow storm).. then sh%$ starts to get real... for now.. be happy that we have something to track. 

 

It would be one thing if it was on its own. But EVERY model has a big storm for this weekend. The evolution is different between them. But there is going to be a bomb on the coast. Lets all hope its a Miller A.

 

And also. The signal has been on the models for almost a week at this point.

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you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too

 

8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania

 

Appreciate the detailed response. I'm originally from Johnstown, where that type of storm might be 'pedestrian'...now that I'm out of the Laurels, 8-14 is a bonanza for me as well!

 

PaxPatriot: As an example of what it would take to make this a larger storm. This post on another thread shows in images the differences between the 2010 super bomb and the possible one for this weekend:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2720287

 

Notice on the bottom frame the vort (Black X) off the coast. Notice the black circle? That's an occluded low. Bottom line on those is it slows the system down dramatically because it's disconnected some from the jet stream and can't be forced along. Those give us the 20"+ bombs. Still, 8-14". I'd love that.

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It would be one thing if it was on its own. But EVERY model has a big storm for this weekend. The evolution is different between them. But there is going to be a bomb on the coast. Lets all hope its a Miller A.

 

And also. The signal has been on the models for almost a week at this point.

Could easily cut... although all the signs are pointing toward a big event... we could wake up tomorrow morning with a snow storm in the Ohio Valley... it is still a little early in the game IMHO... but please... please .. please be right... I just want real snow storm for once...

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you would need a better -nao block, and 50-50...better confluence...also helps if an ULL cuts off south of us, because then you often get additional precip not associated with the surface low...2003, 1996......GFS was close to showing this last night, and thus the sfc low slowed down/stalled...it also helps to have a firehose of a STJ so you get monster liquid totals...plus snow growth, ratios, banding all matter too

 

8-14" is a very big storm for us...I understand it may be more pedestrian for Pennsylvania

 

And really, this weekend setup is today's Canadian setup shifted a little more south with confluence/block etc. Expectations should currently be a "redo" for today's potential accumulations again Sunday...not some 2009-10 bomb.

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Bob, this isn't right, stop teasing. We need images. It's like a peep show and all the holes are full. Wait, that didn't come out quite right.

 

I can't. I want to. Believe me but I'm not supposed to. Posting the op here and there is ok because there are public sources for that. Ensemble stuff is different. I really don't want to cause unnecessary trouble for myself. I push it as it is. 

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