yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Will be very interesting to see the EPS this afternoon... I am hoping there are a good amount of members who support the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I will take 6-10 with some sleet mix in... we all would take that and run and hide it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yes, and you know how well we do around here being the bull's eye in them sorry, somebody had to say it Technically, we don't do well being the bullseye 12 hours out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 he's in mm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah..mixed bag of crap. Time to change. The Gfs was ideal last nite and much colder too. The last two "good" runs of the GFS were pretty much ideal for our area. At least the euro throws us a bit of a bone compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 As in 6-10 inches... zwyts was saying earlier it was a little too close for all snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 As in 6-10 inches... zwyts was saying earlier it was a little too close for all snow for us He said it's 10-14 WITH some sleet mixed in possibly. That's why I'm confused where you got 6-10 from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you'd think after seeing parts of the potomac freeze, virginia beach getting 8-10" of snow, etc, that we are due for something significant. that said, i think everyone needs to keep in mind, being in the bullseye at 6-7 days out is not a great thing. not bad, but not great either. things are going to fluctuate. at this point, i'd pay more attention to the mets who are able to look at the big picture instead of the model huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT's such a hack. 0z GFS shows a Miller A bomb and he does his typical GFS is horrible rant. 12z GFS shows a transfer scenario and he says how much more realistic a solution it is. 12z Euro shows something like the 0z GFS and DT's down on his knees…praising…the Euro solution. The CMC and Euro show Much more of a SOUTHERN Low which given the over all pattern makes more sense but the 12z GFS is still hanging onto that primary Low into KY early on FEB 9. 2 hours ago: 12Z GFS MODEL SHOWS A SOLUTION THAT FINALLY MAKES SENSE… This solution makes a lot more sense than the huge snowstorm solutions that the G FS has been showing off and on every other model cycle for the past three or four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT's such a hack. 0z GFS shows a Miller A bomb and he does his typical GFS is horrible rant. 12z GFS shows a transfer scenario and he says how much more realistic a solution it is. 12z Euro shows something like the 0z GFS and DT's down on his knees…praising…the Euro solution. He posts so much clutter that something is always bound to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 There are several decent 12z Euro OP analogs showing up in the day 1-5 and 6-10 range, and some not so good..of the good ones, the one with the highest correlation was a 6" event....there are two 8-9" events with lower correlations....I think as Wes mentioned, keeping low heights over the maritimes as long as possible is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 you'd think after seeing parts of the potomac freeze, virginia beach getting 8-10" of snow, etc, that we are due for something significant. that said, i think everyone needs to keep in mind, being in the bullseye at 6-7 days out is not a great thing. not bad, but not great either. things are going to fluctuate. at this point, i'd pay more attention to the mets who are able to look at the big picture instead of the model huggers. However, the signal has been there for about one week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He posts so much clutter that something is always bound to be right All he needed to do was stick to his original call from back in January. And he swears he doesn't model hug and that he can see the forest through the trees. I can't even read his stuff anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT's such a hack. 0z GFS shows a Miller A bomb and he does his typical GFS is horrible rant. 12z GFS shows a transfer scenario and he says how much more realistic a solution it is. 12z Euro shows something like the 0z GFS and DT's down on his knees…praising…the Euro solution. 2 hours ago: I just did a test... wanted to see how quickly I could get banned from posting on his FB page... I posted the DGEX.. he called me an idiot.. I posted the euro wxbell clown and boom.. banned... two posts... then five minutes later he posted the same euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 All he needed to do was stick to his original call from back in January. And he swears he doesn't model hug and that he can see the forest through the trees. I can't even read his stuff anymore. OMG... "About 5 inches in Altoona, Pa.. Nice work DT!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm looking forward more to the d9 d10 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 All he needed to do was stick to his original call from back in January. And he swears he doesn't model hug and that he can see the forest through the trees. I can't even read his stuff anymore. He said the 12z gfs made sense given the overall pattern. Then after euro and ggem came out...he said 12z gfs didn't make sense given the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He said the 12z gfs made sense given the overall pattern. Then after euro and ggem came out...he said 12z gfs didn't make sense given the pattern If I have to lose more sleep this week to track a DC snowstorm finally, so-be-it. The pattern is actually pretty freakin' good and every once-in-awhile, classic. Plotting ensemble mean trends of the polar vortex / block may be of use at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 From Facebook lol. Im confused. You JUST posted: "12Z GFS MODEL SHOWS A SOLUTION THAT FINALLY MAKES SENSE..." and "This solution makes a lot more sense than the huge snowstorm solutions that the G FS has been showing off and on every other model cycle for the past three or four days."...and now that the Euro shows something similar, you are saluting it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He said the 12z gfs made sense given the overall pattern. Then after euro and ggem came out...he said 12z gfs didn't make sense given the pattern He was honking when it was a pipe dream. Then cancelled it for the MA when guidance started showing crappy solutions. And now is flip flopping. I might be wrong because I don't read his page often but I remember the big pats on the back he was giving himself when the storm started showing up in fantasy land. He should have just stuck with that. Until there was consensus for a crap track non-storm at a reasonable lead. You know he'll instantly refer to the pipe dream posts if the euro verifies and be totally quiet about all the pancakes and waffles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He was honking when it was a pipe dream. Then cancelled it for the MA when guidance started showing crappy solutions. And now is flip flopping. I might be wrong because I don't read his page often but I remember the big pats on the back he was giving himself when the storm started showing up in fantasy land. He should have just stuck with that. Until there was consensus for a crap track non-storm at a reasonable lead. You know he'll instantly refer to the pipe dream posts if the euro verifies and be totally quiet about all the pancakes and waffles. He doesn't like it when others steal his hype so expect him to claim he did the right thing by NOT hyping this last week but telling us he had this storm nailed down two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 9mhwbg_conus.gif 9nhwbg_conus.gif Looks like a Euro/GEFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 9mhwbg_conus.gif 9nhwbg_conus.gif Marty's good....that should boost weenies spirits. Mine are being boosted by the snow flakes I'm finally seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Didn't JB post something on twitter today about thanking whoever posted the irresponsible snow map last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 **ALEET ** 12Z EURO and 12z CANADIAN models move in close agreement .. MECS (Major east Coast snowstorm) looks more and more LIKELY FEB 8-9 for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow, I love seeing wpc put out maps like that. They are pretty darn good almost all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Storm track good: check Cold air available: check DCA MECS: I give it better than 50% chance this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So, just looking at the Euro snowfall map, this solution produces a region-wide 8-14 inch storm. Just out of curiosity, what would have to be different for the solution to show some 20+ bulbs? I'm only curious because it sounds like this is a great setup, and yet no crazy heavy accumulations. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So, just looking at the Euro snowfall map, this solution produces a region-wide 8-14 inch storm. Just out of curiosity, what would have to be different for the solution to show some 20+ bulbs? I'm only curious because it sounds like this is a great setup, and yet no crazy heavy accumulations. Thanks in advance! Skip the snowfall map for now...concentrate on storm track and storm ingredients now. Accum can be finalized later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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