Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 five years ago, there was never discussion of operational models outside 144 hours...nobody ever took day 7 output seriously...that has changed Skill has increased a bit.. so we're not quite in the same model world but it's still pretty abysmal d7+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Just for clarification, is that for the next week event or Sunday evening? It doesn't effect us. It was there last night but pretty dry. Now its a pretty decent wave of precip from western tn/ky across the carolinas. Not snow for them. Just a wave on the front. Something to casually watch but highly doubt it means much. Just pointing out noticeable run over run change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'll hop to the other thread for day 6 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Close in precip panels paint .2 - .3 area wide for Sat-mon. I suppose there is some upside to the Sat part. Models were showing some interaction with the se coastal back a few days ago and then dropped the idea. Nice to see it come back at much short leads. It can go the other way of course but I'm an optimist so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the models have always been pretty bad at range.. it's a newish phenomenon that people look to d5-10 to get much from them.More like desperation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Close in precip panels paint .2 - .3 area wide for Sat-mon. I suppose there is some upside to the Sat part. Models were showing some interaction with the se coastal back a few days ago and then dropped the idea. Nice to see it come back at much short leads. It can go the other way of course but I'm an optimist so... A little snow will be great. Maybe it will like the SE train idea better tonight. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A dusting at 90H on the euro This is what we have been whittled to? Praying for a dusting on a 90H panel on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is what we have been whittled to? Praying for a dusting on a 90H panel on a model. Did you read the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Death Row? The Governer just called with a full pardon! Now I am not a smart weather guy like the rest of you guys. However, I did make the call when virtually no one else did last week that the storm that was supposed be well to the south of us would come north and west of what the models said. I predicted 3-4 inches out of that storm for central MD. We wound up 2-3 in Anne Arundel County. I am predicting this weekends storm will do the same and the two waves will combine. I am saying 4-8 for Anne Arundel County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 My snow removal contractor at the Hazy Center just called to tell me their supplier is out of salt- it shall SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 They just brined the roads in Leesburg...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 They just brined the roads in Leesburg...lol... seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 They just brined the roads in Leesburg...lol... Huh? For what? Don't they know I just washed my car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Did you read the thread? That would be negative Captain. Shall I put him in the brink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCA Weather Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Death Row? The Governer just called with a full pardon! Now I am not a smart weather guy like the rest of you guys. However, I did make the call when virtually no one else did last week that the storm that was supposed be well to the south of us would come north and west of what the models said. I predicted 3-4 inches out of that storm for central MD. We wound up 2-3 in Anne Arundel County. I am predicting this weekends storm will do the same and the two waves will combine. I am saying 4-8 for Anne Arundel County. Just out of curiosity, is your "prediction" based on any kind of meteorological thinking, or is it simply a WAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Death Row? The Governer just called with a full pardon!Now I am not a smart weather guy like the rest of you guys. However, I did make the call when virtually no one else did last week that the storm that was supposed be well to the south of us would come north and west of what the models said. I predicted 3-4 inches out of that storm for central MD. We wound up 2-3 in Anne Arundel County.I am predicting this weekends storm will do the same and the two waves will combine. I am saying 4-8 for Anne Arundel County. Quoted for prosperity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Although a few say models are "general" only, that statement is untrue. 5+ day models show specifics, they show a 1000mb low east of Norfolk 120 hours away with a specific and limited precipitation coverage. Next run, low is off SC coast, next run it's in Ohio Valley. This is specific, not general. They probably input too much specific and detailed info and thus that is what they spit out. General would be that a low will occur somewhere in the eastern 1/3 of the USA and that daytime temps will be in the 30's. It not a valid refute to take a product that gives detailed specifics and state that it is for a broad and general interpretation. Modles and those who produce them are a self sustaining entity-show every solution possible and claim accuracy when one hits and supply that confirmation to the money sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 seriously? No one wants to be caught with their pants down... could you imagine if this thing reverse busts... and you get mayhem on the highways.. and weatherboy laughs his way all the way to the ATM machine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Death Row? The Governer just called with a full pardon! Now I am not a smart weather guy like the rest of you guys. However, I did make the call when virtually no one else did last week that the storm that was supposed be well to the south of us would come north and west of what the models said. I predicted 3-4 inches out of that storm for central MD. We wound up 2-3 in Anne Arundel County. I am predicting this weekends storm will do the same and the two waves will combine. I am saying 4-8 for Anne Arundel County. I absolutely love the graphic.. it just doesnt get any better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Quoted for prosperity I personally like the snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Quoted for prosperity I kinda get the first yellow arrow... but what about the second one with the flow... what is that? You gotta give some more analysis... I really want to hear your logic on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Although a few say models are "general" only, that statement is untrue. 5+ day models show specifics, they show a 1000mb low east of Norfolk 120 hours away with a specific and limited precipitation coverage. Next run, low is off SC coast, next run it's in Ohio Valley. This is specific, not general. They probably input too much specific and detailed info and thus that is what they spit out. General would be that a low will occur somewhere in the eastern 1/3 of the USA and that daytime temps will be in the 30's. It not a valid refute to take a product that gives detailed specifics and state that it is for a broad and general interpretation. Modles and those who produce them are a self sustaining entity-show every solution possible and claim accuracy when one hits and supply that confirmation to the money sources. That is why ensembles, pattern recognition, analogs, climo are all important tools at those ranges....I don't think many pro forecasters and mets rely on operational guidance verbatim outsiide of 72 hours most of the time....but the best forecasters use models as an integral part of forecasting..without models, weather forecasting would regress 50 years.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 seriously?[/quote They did evergreen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Quoted for prosperity *posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 *posterity Thanks! I had a feeling that it was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Quoted for prosperity You're assuming posterity can read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That is why ensembles, pattern recognition, analogs, climo are all important tools at those ranges....I don't think many pro forecasters and mets rely on operational guidance verbatim outsiide of 72 hours most of the time....but the best forecasters use models as an integral part of forecasting..without models, weather forecasting would regress 50 years.. There's a lot of really crappy met forecasters out there these days... model interpretation is the rule v forecasting in a lot of circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You're assuming posterity can read. I was hoping he'd be successful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 *posterity Maybe she meant to get rich off of the quote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe she meant to get rich off of the quote? nah, was wishing the man all the success in his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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