Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nam looked fine through 48. Thats about all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nam looked fine through 48. Thats about all that matters. Agree. And its close at 60. Yeah its the NAM but there is a chance given what we have seen at short leads with recent systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Agree. And its close at 60. Yeah its the NAM but there is a chance given what we have seen at short leads with recent systems. the nam is bad past 48 with winter storms in general. Especially with fast moving weak vorts. We can easily be a bust this weekend but I'm certainly not relying on the nam to tell me that. I'm going with an inch or 2. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 None of our storms this year have been seen at range. They all went through major changes under 84 hours, and didn't really look good until 48 hours out or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like we're going to be analyzing every model run for the next few days and dissecting whether we get 0.07 or 0.11 qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RGEM at 48 hrs....looks like it too has some light snow for us past the end of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 bastardi raised the white flag. You all should too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 bastardi raised the white flag. You all should too Which means it will now snow, great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't understand why people even talk about the GFS or Euro past 3 days out. They have both been worthless all winter long after 3days out. All this talk about next weeks storm should be downplayed. More than likely, based on past performances, it wont happen. I love these message boards, but I wouldn't get your hopes up for anything past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't understand why people even talk about the GFS or Euro past 3 days out. They have both been worthless all winter long after 3days out. All this talk about next weeks storm should be downplayed. More than likely, based on past performances, it wont happen. I love these message boards, but I wouldn't get your hopes up for anything past 3 days. Because what else are we going to do? Stop thinking about the weather? Give up the hobby? You expect people who love weather to do that? Of course the models are a joke and hands down the best snowstorms are the ones that are not predicated beyond 48 hours. We are still going to play the game though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't understand why people even talk about the GFS or Euro past 3 days out. They have both been worthless all winter long after 3days out. All this talk about next weeks storm should be downplayed. More than likely, based on past performances, it wont happen. I love these message boards, but I wouldn't get your hopes up for anything past 3 days. Looking at long leads is a learning experience. Allowing a hobbyist to draw better conclusions and expectations based on overall guidance and outcomes and not treating op runs as live tv. Few here expect a long lead storm to verify as shown at long leads. Watching the event unfold over time is an intellectual excercise in better understanding clues within the pattern. If someone is using long lead op models to make their own deterministic forecast then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 we may get some dustings early Saturday and late on Sunday...otherwise nothing to see here...just another model bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro remains the most bullish, if you want to call it that, for Saturday, both here and on MD's lower eastern shore; it's been so for the last 2 or 3 runs too we'll see what that has to say in a couple hours, but it seems that is our only hope of seeing an inch or more over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Prospects, if you can call them that, looking a little better in central VA than elsewhere. But temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 we may get some dustings early Saturday and late on Sunday...otherwise nothing to see here...just another model bust I heard Alex Liggitt say that "the models have been terrible this winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone who starts a storm thread more than three days in advance and the storm fails, should forever be banned from starting storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Anyone who starts a storm thread more than three days in advance and the storm fails, should forever be banned from starting storm threads. Lol the original title of this thread had KU in it. Yeah a bit premature starting these threads more than 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 tracking a storm and playing the rollercoaster game every run for 6 days.....smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Had CNN on this morning, Banner headline across the bottom read something like this ... Northeastern U.S. gets break as storm expected to drop feet of snow on the northeast this weekend fizzles ... Last night I had to tell my son's coach that is was ok to schedule practice on Saturday as the 6-10" he expected was unlikely to say the least. The power of a 162-hour ECMWF forecast! Now we have another storm about 7 days away ... will the cycle continue? Anyway hoping for flurries (big ones) this weekend. I missed the one-minute of flurries the DC area (east of the divide) had last Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Interestingly the gefs has some support for a stronger solution for the trailing wave on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Have a bad taste in my mouth. Need to move on ASAP Too soon. I rest my case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Had CNN on this morning, Banner headline across the bottom read something like this ... Northeastern U.S. gets break as storm expected to drop feet of snow on the northeast this weekend fizzles ... Last night I had to tell my son's coach that is was ok to schedule practice on Saturday as the 6-10" he expected was unlikely to say the least. The power of a 162-hour ECMWF forecast! Now we have another storm about 7 days away ... will the cycle continue? Anyway hoping for flurries (big ones) this weekend. I missed the one-minute of flurries the DC area (east of the divide) had last Monday. Social media. 3 words come to mind...irresponsible, misinformation, misinterpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So should be change the title to flatlined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Interestingly the gefs has some support for a stronger solution for the trailing wave on monday. Didn't the 0z Euro ensemble like the Saturday wave, at least for I-95 and east. One of these waves is going to deliver an inch or 2, somewhere in the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Multiple "looks" outside of 48h is much better than a hecs outside of 48h especially with so much spread between models. Gimme multiple misses to the south any day at medium/long range...much better than bullseye 4 or 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Multiple "looks" outside of 48h is much better than a hecs outside of 48h especially with so much spread between models. Gimme multiple misses to the south any day at medium/long range...much better than bullseye 4 or 5 days out I think most of us agree with this in principle, but it's the instant gratification side of us that keeps us from being rational about these things. There's a good part of me that likes "the gamble" where we see a multitude of solutions from 5 - 6 days away rather than seeing the big one at that range and then it just rapidly falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I heard Alex Liggitt say that "the models have been terrible this winter." the models have always been pretty bad at range.. it's a newish phenomenon that people look to d5-10 to get much from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro is more bullish on Saturday than it has been..drops about 0.15" of snow for DC during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Euro is more bullish on Saturday than it has been..drops about 0.15" of snow for DC during the day Beat me to it. Vort is ever so slightly more amped than last run. And a little more energy in the ns piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Beat me to it. Vort is ever so slightly more amped than last run. And a little more energy in the ns piece. yeah...it's a neat little 1-2" event from like 8am - 2pm...and it is cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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