stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a complicated forecast. Verbatim is disjointed. It could easily be a no nevermind. But the interaction is clearly not resolved. All it takes it one piece of the 3 to find a pocket of op. I just want to score an inch or 2. There is upside and downside. The bottom line is we still don't know. It's fun. At least to me Are we looking at the same map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's always the next big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Are we looking at the same map? I think he is referring to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a beautiful map on the 162 GFS, Northern branch runs out ahead, but the southern vort looks strong enough to form a nice storm, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a beautiful map on the 162 GFS, Northern branch runs out ahead, but the southern vort looks strong enough to form a nice storm, we'll see. Just watch the shortwave over the Dakotas at that time. NIce neutral-slightly neg tilt shortwave over top of the MS river down south... big area of precip in the gulf/coast/se states.. edit.. next frame, doesn't look like it'll catch and phase, so this could be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think he is referring to the weekend. oh, i'm talking about the mid week thing...wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the flat look out west might not allow that northern stream @ 165 to dive down and catch that southern system.... close, but no cigar this run for a phase... next solution in 6hrs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS is trolling us something fierce, a storm spends about 2 months gathering in the south then slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RIC gets 1" qpf snow over 24+ hrs EDIT: probably get more than that, but I'm only out 168 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS is trolling us something fierce, a storm spends about 2 months gathering in the south then slides off the coast.its a shame that we wouldn't want a big southern stream system to be shown to our south on the gfs 5 days out. Just wish the gfs was known for under playing the strength of stj systems and having issues with phasing. If that were true this would have been a great run for dc. Oh well. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RIC gets 1" qpf snow over 24+ hrs EDIT: probably get more than that, but I'm only out 168 hrs lol they get a ton more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Are we looking at the same map? Next week has promise but as you already figged, I was talking about the weekend It's a fun event from a complexity standpoint. A lead ss wave and now it looks like the ns has 2 pieces. Back to back gfs runs anyways. We're getting precip. All guidance shows that. How it evolves is still unknown. It will be a small event regardless. But we certainly can't rule out a small surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg It's hecs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Canadian has like 4 events followed by a HECS Finale at 204hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro inch Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 By this time tomorrow the models will have you guys serving happy hour drinks again. The storm is going to turn North and West. You heard it here first :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think I'm good for a while, I'm going to will the storm south for you all while I clean up the mess that is my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 "...One scenario suggests the storm may develop into a blizzard as it nears the Atlantic Ocean..." http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-coast-weekend-storm-potential/22923523 Possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 "...One scenario suggests the storm may develop into a blizzard as it nears the Atlantic Ocean..." http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-coast-weekend-storm-potential/22923523 Possible? For us? No. Unless it means a blizzard over the Atlantic Ocean moving toward Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ensemble and op guidance paints us with .1-.2 from sat-mon. Differences in how we get there. Nothing appears ripe to pop in favor of an upside surprise but a period or 2 of light snow looks likely. If I measure an inch without slantsticking I'm good. EPS mean bumped precip from the coastal a little closer but it's just noise. Weekend will feel like winter with temps and snow in the air regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ensemble and op guidance paints us with .1-.2 from sat-mon. Differences in how we get there. Nothing appears ripe to pop in favor of an upside surprise but a period or 2 of light snow looks likely. If I measure an inch without slantsticking I'm good. EPS mean bumped precip from the coastal a little closer but it's just noise. Weekend will feel like winter with temps and snow in the air regardless how does EPS look for midweek? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Can someone make a new thread for all the midweek talk? I feel that it doesn't belong in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thought that was what the medium range thread was for. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 FWIW, some changes in NAM @42 - initial southern vort looking a bit more 'diggy'. Don't know if that will change anything much, as the rest of the picture looks similar to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Update: So close, yet so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Update: So close, yet so far. Its not going to happen... its gone. NAM has no QPF for us through 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 At least it's gonna be cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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