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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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What is fascinating about Washington weather is how we chase 7 day leads on the models. We were all pumped up about this weekend about 3-4 days ago.

 

Now, we are getting enthused about another 7 day lead, next week.

It's true, we live in the world of digital snow, which is always 7 days away. 

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not just NAM as another SREF run came out and went the other way, but I also said considering the models from earlier today

Don't you think that the models are having an especially hard time for this weekend's storm though?  There are major changes with each run for each model for the past three days. We may not have a real consensus on what happens Sunday until Friday.

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Don't you think that the models are having an especially hard time for this weekend's storm though?  There are major changes with each run for each model for the past three days. We may not have a real consensus on what happens Sunday until Friday.

not when they all come to an agreement as they have seemingly done wrt to Sat

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What is fascinating about Washington weather is how we chase 7 day leads on the models. We were all pumped up about this weekend about 3-4 days ago.

 

Now, we are getting enthused about another 7 day lead, next week.

I have tempered expectations on any lead. Yesterday it looked like a warming trend for a bit, then models all turned colder right before show time. ?? Mother Nature happens.

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Gfs has a new dance in mind with the 2 streams. I punt nothing

 

agreed.  and this is what separates the mets from the wannabe's.  i've been following nws the last couple days and they haven't wavered with the weekend potential.  right now, the forecast is that some snow is likely.  will it?  who knows, but they must see something that most hobbyists don't.

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I have noticed LWX's continuous bullish forecast for the weekend the past few days--snow chances of 30-60% for Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. Kind of un-LWX-like. If you add up the percentages, they are saying there is 100% chance it will snow this weekend. Not sure about that...

 

ummm that's not how that works lol

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runs so far this evening along with earlier runs pretty much seal the deal that the Fri/Sat wave can be waived bye-bye

the fri/sat wave was never really the one to watch, it is running way out ahead of all the upper level support.  It is the reason we have no storm Sun/Mon though as it takes all the WAA way OTS and screws up the flow behind it.  We need that system diving down to be more consolidated also.  I am starting to think the bigger issue is the two vorts dampening each other out in the northern stream.  We need one of them to take over and dig. 

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Dare I say that the GFS so far looks......identical to 18z?

It's a complicated forecast. Verbatim is disjointed. It could easily be a no nevermind. But the interaction is clearly not resolved. All it takes it one piece of the 3 to find a pocket of op.

I just want to score an inch or 2. There is upside and downside. The bottom line is we still don't know. It's fun. At least to me

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