usedtobe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I like it. Happy hour. The low nneds to be farther south or surface temps are gonna kill if it is right.....it would be mostly rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Since the weekend event is looking lame right now and with discussion of possibilities spilling into next week, would it be worthwhile to just re-name this thread something like "Feb. 8-15 Potential Threats"? Or would that overlap too much with the already existing medium range one? I suppose if the Feb. 8-10 event comes back to life it can be started up separately again. I like that idea, I know other regions do that for active patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NS seems to have come out in pieces. First one was very weak and uneventful but set the stage for weak surface reflection to pop east of the br. Next little piece got things cranking. Do I believe it's possible? Yep. Do I believe this run? Nope. Cue Al Michaels..."do you believe in miracles?" 8-10 is coming back to life. lol I'm going to post my thoughts about the mid week deal in the pinned LR thread for now. We have an active period. Not many people will be posting about d10 and beyond for a while. Yeah, I saw that right after I sent my post of course! Now it's hard to tell what the heck is going on. But hopefully fun in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Completely OT, but finally some great rain in Northern California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The low nneds to be farther south are surface temps are gonna kill if it is right.....it would be mostly rain for DC. It's a phantom at this point. Just another thing to watch. But I agree. The first piece passing north does us no favors. We'll have to see if future runs build on the potential if there is any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The low nneds to be farther south are surface temps are gonna kill if it is right.....it would be mostly rain for DC. Yeah, I was just looking at those 2-m temps, and they are iffy for much of it, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And now we have brand new mystery vort #3 in play. Happy hour. The more the merrier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not a bad setup for the Mid-Atlantic @ 144 hours, positively tilted trough rolling east with some nice gulf moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 trends...trends compare 12z and 18z same time not only is the storm closer, it's stronger; surface maps and 5H maps below (12Z on top and 18Z below); this is just one run and we have 3 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Maybe hm lite was on to something earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hmm looks as if there is a phase between the Polar jet s/w and Arctic jet s/w eventually developing a massive Low Press that moves into the North Atlantic which forces the next two s/w in line to phase around 138H pulling Gulf Moisture into the H pressing South. Looks to be a good snow setup for the Mid Atl based on 138h GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Leave it to the GFS to throw yet another strange and unexpected curve ball into an already bizarre ride for this event. I thought we had seen more or less every option...cutter to Chicago, KU style East Coast snowstorm, bowling ball nice hit for the mid-Atlantic area, complete whiff out to sea (and to our north)...and then this. Are we still calling it the Unicorn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Old-Fashioned SECS on the GFS Day 6-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Happy hour x2. That is one slow moving storm midweek, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Happy hour x2. That is one slow moving storm midweek, And this time tomorrow it will be a completely different setup...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a phantom at this point. Just another thing to watch. But I agree. The first piece passing north does us no favors. We'll have to see if future runs build on the potential if there is any. Yeah its another possibility to toss into the mix. Verbatim its probably a r/s mix to snow. No value at this juncture to even discuss p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Old-Fashioned SECS on the GFS Day 6-7 We can't even score modern-day SECS four days out, let alone "old fashioned" SECS in a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 My stormvista maps show 8-10" for DC bullseye, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 oh no! me too! plumbers' convention???? Yup my pipes are really backed up, I have to get them cleaned in South Beach. j/k hey, you don't have to spend all that money to go down there....they sell those diet books all over town in the super markets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FYI the EURO ensembles support a mid-atlantic snowstorm for next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS shows that with any amplification, one of those shortwaves in the flow can produce something. The only major storm to occur in this flat of a flow was 4/6/1982. The frontal zone was much further north in that setup and the shortwave was able to catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So it looks like we have (not gonna happen) Miller A on this eveings GFS for 145 hours - 171 hours out...crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS shows that with any amplification, one of those shortwaves in the flow can produce something. The only major storm to occur in this flat of a flow was 4/6/1982. The frontal zone was much further north in that setup and the shortwave was able to catch it. Thank god...otherwise NYC might not have gotten nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FYI the EURO ensembles support a mid-atlantic snowstorm for next Wednesday. Yes, in some of the discussion a bit earlier it was mentioned they showed a mid-week event. I wonder if this run of the GFS is keying on the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thank god...otherwise NYC might not have gotten nailed A Norlun will nail them with 6-10" no matter what. There's no escaping a decent event for NYC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Majority of gefs members give us .25+ precip for 72 hours ending @ 1pm Monday. The solutions are spreading more as well. Uncertainty increased through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Majority of gefs members give us .25+ precip for 72 hours ending @ 1pm Monday. The solutions are spreading more as well. Uncertainty increased through the period. Marginal surface temps on most or are some decently cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Majority of gefs members give us .25+ precip for 72 hours ending @ 1pm Monday. The solutions are spreading more as well. Uncertainty increased through the period. Most would do well to go to bed and forget about the weekend........... The frontrunner is too strong............. Mid and late next week presents real possibilities................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Most would do well to go to bed and forget about the weekend........... The frontrunner is too strong............. Mid and late next week presents real possibilities................................................................. Huh? No one here is riding the weekend event. That is not why we read the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Huh? No one here is riding the weekend event. That is not why we read the thread. Cross your fingers for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week...............Otherwise, get down on your knees and pray for the weekend.......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Most would do well to go to bed and forget about the weekend........... The frontrunner is too strong............. Mid and late next week presents real possibilities................................................................. Cross your fingers for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week...............Otherwise, get down on your knees and pray for the weekend.......................... Is your period key stuck or something................? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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