mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 just a refresher why trends at this distance are all we need to look for.... these are hours 72, 78, and 84 from the 12Z run of the NAM on Friday, 1/31 for the Monday morning rain event that dropped around an inch of qpf over us and well further north http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=72&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=78&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=84&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS is out. Mods delete if you want. 6hr precip mean for 0z Sun from todays run: Same timeframe from last nights eps run: Pretty much identical. At least it didn't move further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it definitely does look better...though i'd say a trend is if it gets better at 0z. otherwise, could just be noise. Yeah... its awfully close though. I said three days ago that Wednesday night is the run where this sh%$ gets real... unfortunately I thought I was going to be talking about a "lock it up" scenario... instead we are praying for the resurrection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS is out. Mods delete if you want. 6hr precip mean for 0z Sun from todays run: epsmean.JPG Same timeframe from last nights eps run: epsmeanyesterday.JPG Pretty much identical. At least it didn't move further east. Lol...I'm in Ocean City Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 just a refresher why trends at this distance are all we need to look for.... these are hours 72, 78, and 84 from the 12Z run of the NAM on Friday, 1/31 for the Monday morning rain event that dropped around an inch of qpf over us and well further north http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=72&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=78&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=84&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP Funny... but accurate... that is definitely how it trended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billg Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison My God! - think we all feel that way from time to time - but seriously - wow Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 nws still feels that we'll see some measurable snow this weekend: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHERNSTREAM TROUGH NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES COASTAL LOW OFFSHORETHE MID ATLANTIC ON THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY. STILL SHOWING ANINVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY WITHWEAKER VORT MAX PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THIS WAVE WILLBRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY. THEN AS POTENT NORTHERNSTREAM VORT ROTATES AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ASECOND ROUND OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS VARY ONTHE STRENGTH AND TRACK /WITH GFS FARTHER NORTH/ OF THIS SECOND VORTMAX. PHASING...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINTERRIBLY INCONSISTENT AND WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /MAINLYSNOW/ LOOKS LIKELY AT SOME POINT...THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ONETHING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FOR EARLYNEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. Do we start another thread Feb 11-12... The EURO storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lol you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if that happens as depicted on the NAM, it would be painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. once you have 42 years of your adult (near adult) life of doing this under ur belt, you will too! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do we start another thread Feb 11-12... The EURO storm? you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lolFunny me as well, I have a flight out of BWI at 11 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Mine was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Funny me as well, I have a flight out of BWI at 11 a.m. oh no! me too! plumbers' convention???? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 oh no! me too! plumbers' convention???? Yup my pipes are really backed up, I have to get them cleaned in South Beach. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if that happens as depicted on the NAM, it would be painful Which storm? Man, these MA snow threads are kicking my ADD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok GFS, make us happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. um...the EPS had .80 for this weekend storm about 3-4 days away...soo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mine was a joke. So was mine as I am sure Bob's was. All in fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 um...the EPS had .80 for this weekend storm about 3-4 days away...soo moved talk of the next chance in the lr thread. 18z gfs took a flat iron to both vorts on this run. PU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And now we have brand new mystery vort #3 in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell GFS doing on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell GFS doing on Monday? I like it. Happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Da hell GFS doing on Monday? NS seems to have come out in pieces. First one was very weak and uneventful but set the stage for weak surface reflection to pop east of the br. Next little piece got things cranking. Do I believe it's possible? Yep. Do I believe this run? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 And now we have brand new mystery vort #3 in play. Since the weekend event is looking lame right now and with discussion of possibilities spilling into next week, would it be worthwhile to just re-name this thread something like "Feb. 8-15 Potential Threats"? Or would that overlap too much with the already existing medium range one? I suppose if the Feb. 8-10 event comes back to life it can be started up separately again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Since the weekend event is looking lame right now and with discussion of possibilities spilling into next week, would it be worthwhile to just re-name this thread something like "Feb. 8-15 Potential Threats"? Or would that overlap too much with the already existing medium range one? I suppose if the Feb. 8-10 event comes back to life it can be started up separately again. 8-10 is coming back to life. lol I'm going to post my thoughts about the mid week deal in the pinned LR thread for now. We have an active period. Not many people will be posting about d10 and beyond for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I will take a .25 if QPF if it is all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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