Joshfsu123 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Definitely starting to giv up on a major storm for this weekend - but 2-4 inches system would be nice. If the models continue to create a system for next week, that could become a real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1pm Sunday temps at BWI from Euro 12z....30 0Z GFS.....41 wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I have noticed LWX's continuous bullish forecast for the weekend the past few days--snow chances of 30-60% for Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. Kind of un-LWX-like. If you add up the percentages, they are saying there is 100% chance it will snow this weekend. Not sure about that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I have noticed LWX's continuous bullish forecast for the weekend the past few days--snow chances of 30-60% for Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. Kind of un-LWX-like. If you add up the percentages, they are saying there is 100% chance it will snow this weekend. Not sure about that... ummm that's not how that works lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 runs so far this evening along with earlier runs pretty much seal the deal that the Fri/Sat wave can be waived bye-bye the fri/sat wave was never really the one to watch, it is running way out ahead of all the upper level support. It is the reason we have no storm Sun/Mon though as it takes all the WAA way OTS and screws up the flow behind it. We need that system diving down to be more consolidated also. I am starting to think the bigger issue is the two vorts dampening each other out in the northern stream. We need one of them to take over and dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Getting kinda tingly here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Dare I say.looks even better for unicorn redemption storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Off to bed, setup at 132 looks nice, its not 300 hours out, its got a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Dare I say that the GFS so far looks......identical to 18z? It's a complicated forecast. Verbatim is disjointed. It could easily be a no nevermind. But the interaction is clearly not resolved. All it takes it one piece of the 3 to find a pocket of op. I just want to score an inch or 2. There is upside and downside. The bottom line is we still don't know. It's fun. At least to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a complicated forecast. Verbatim is disjointed. It could easily be a no nevermind. But the interaction is clearly not resolved. All it takes it one piece of the 3 to find a pocket of op. I just want to score an inch or 2. There is upside and downside. The bottom line is we still don't know. It's fun. At least to me Are we looking at the same map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's always the next big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Are we looking at the same map? I think he is referring to the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a beautiful map on the 162 GFS, Northern branch runs out ahead, but the southern vort looks strong enough to form a nice storm, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What a beautiful map on the 162 GFS, Northern branch runs out ahead, but the southern vort looks strong enough to form a nice storm, we'll see. Just watch the shortwave over the Dakotas at that time. NIce neutral-slightly neg tilt shortwave over top of the MS river down south... big area of precip in the gulf/coast/se states.. edit.. next frame, doesn't look like it'll catch and phase, so this could be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think he is referring to the weekend. oh, i'm talking about the mid week thing...wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the flat look out west might not allow that northern stream @ 165 to dive down and catch that southern system.... close, but no cigar this run for a phase... next solution in 6hrs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS is trolling us something fierce, a storm spends about 2 months gathering in the south then slides off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RIC gets 1" qpf snow over 24+ hrs EDIT: probably get more than that, but I'm only out 168 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The GFS is trolling us something fierce, a storm spends about 2 months gathering in the south then slides off the coast.its a shame that we wouldn't want a big southern stream system to be shown to our south on the gfs 5 days out. Just wish the gfs was known for under playing the strength of stj systems and having issues with phasing. If that were true this would have been a great run for dc. Oh well. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 RIC gets 1" qpf snow over 24+ hrs EDIT: probably get more than that, but I'm only out 168 hrs lol they get a ton more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Are we looking at the same map? Next week has promise but as you already figged, I was talking about the weekend It's a fun event from a complexity standpoint. A lead ss wave and now it looks like the ns has 2 pieces. Back to back gfs runs anyways. We're getting precip. All guidance shows that. How it evolves is still unknown. It will be a small event regardless. But we certainly can't rule out a small surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg It's hecs us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Canadian not bad for next week fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Canadian has like 4 events followed by a HECS Finale at 204hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro inch Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 By this time tomorrow the models will have you guys serving happy hour drinks again. The storm is going to turn North and West. You heard it here first :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think I'm good for a while, I'm going to will the storm south for you all while I clean up the mess that is my yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 "...One scenario suggests the storm may develop into a blizzard as it nears the Atlantic Ocean..." http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-coast-weekend-storm-potential/22923523 Possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 "...One scenario suggests the storm may develop into a blizzard as it nears the Atlantic Ocean..." http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/east-coast-weekend-storm-potential/22923523 Possible? For us? No. Unless it means a blizzard over the Atlantic Ocean moving toward Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ensemble and op guidance paints us with .1-.2 from sat-mon. Differences in how we get there. Nothing appears ripe to pop in favor of an upside surprise but a period or 2 of light snow looks likely. If I measure an inch without slantsticking I'm good. EPS mean bumped precip from the coastal a little closer but it's just noise. Weekend will feel like winter with temps and snow in the air regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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