Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, looks likes there's a GL low in there at 216 to screw us at just the right time. Yea, too bad we get 3-6 on the ground before the second piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, looks likes there's a GL low in there at 216 to screw us at just the right time. Its going to be a nice rainstorm for all taking a peek at the 850s and with our fav friend, the GL low nosing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I know, it's being looked at....scott! There you go, its fixed and working in your sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Its going to be a nice rainstorm for all taking a peek at the 850s and with our fav friend, the GL low nosing in Wheres the blocking and companion 50-50 vortex? There would be no stinking GL low if we can get a legit block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 not sure about a warm look. euro has about 14 inches on ground through 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mid-late week has plenty of moisture and some cold air. I'll worry about 50/50's and gl lows in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 not sure about a warm look. euro has about 14 inches on ground through 210 huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 huh? Snow maps are flawed but we score half decently through 174. I'm not going to sweat anything. Another chance. It's all I ever ask for until the door closes on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 huh? sorry 12-13 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We are saved by HM light: From Henry Margusity"I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 sorry 12-13 inches WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Snow maps are flawed but we score half decently through 174. I'm not going to sweat anything. Another chance. It's all I ever ask for until the door closes on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Supposedly the GGEM ensembles are further NW and more amped than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 WTF? Some of that is bogus. Ice and rain verbatim around 180-192+. We lose 850's because of the gl low. But the front end from 150-174 looks solid on paper. About .5 liquid and all snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 WTF? it's a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it's a good run]you know it's getting tough when you have to sell a good run without 10 day leads. GFS is much colder and more suppressed obviously. But GEFS supports the front running wave that the euro has in which we actually get uncomplicated snow (on paper subject to 100's of changes yadayada). EPS from last night also supports some sort of similar evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of that is bogus. Ice and rain verbatim around 180-192+. We lose 850's because of the gl low. But the front end from 150-174 looks solid on paper. About .5 liquid and all snow verbatim. Ah, ok. On another note...the CMC, GEFS and Euro all have some sort of low off the SC coast heading OTS...so there is a storm, just not where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ah, ok. On another note...the CMC, GEFS and Euro all have some sort of low off the SC coast heading OTS...so there is a storm, just not where we want it. You mean for this weekend right? I saw the cmc but I never comment on it. All we can do is track stream interaction and amp in front of the lead wave. I'll laugh if we score something acceptable. It would hardly surprise me. I'm sure many have written it off entirely. I'd be happy with an inch or 2. I think I'm ok with that expectation at least. All but one GEFS member drops .1+ over the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We are saved by HM light: From Henry Margusity "I know the operational models have backed off the storm Sunday, but I don't buy it. I am seeing the NAO going to neutral and the PNA coming up to neutral which leads me to believe that as the trough digs in, there will be some phasing of the branches and a storm should develop along the coast. Patterns like this can bring surprises that the models do not see until within a day or so of the event. Look back on the Monday snow event. The models last week only shows a weak low running across the South with very little snow, but in the end, it turned out to be a major snowstorm for the parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. So my point is don't let the model runs be the answer today. Watch and see what happens." The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You mean for this weekend right? I saw the cmc but I never comment on it. All we can do is track stream interaction and amp in front of the lead wave. I'll laugh if we score something acceptable. It would hardly surprise me. I'm sure many have written it off entirely. I'd be happy with an inch or 2. I think I'm ok with that expectation at least. Nope, nowhere close to writing this one off...nobody should. Again, it's all about checked expectations. We did a full step down from yesterday...people have had enough time to adjust accordingly...goal now is 2 to 4, not a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Thanks and my deepest sympathies that you have to share initials with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thanks and my deepest sympathies that you have to share initials with him. As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nope, nowhere close to writing this one off...nobody should. Again, it's all about checked expectations. We did a full step down from yesterday...people have had enough time to adjust accordingly...goal now is 2 to 4, not a MECS I won't be satisfied unless we get 4 to 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison Boy you really hit the jackpot picking your username. Maybe you should think of changing it to Stillis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I won't be satisfied unless we get 4 to 6 inches of snow. I'll say this though, nobody, NE included, can beat the MA on modeled snow in the 7-10 day range....nobody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 2 interesting JMA maps first one shows JMA knows our climatology pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 2nd one shows this storm with 850 line in the central Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So we're not getting 36" of snow this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 but we tracked the Feb 8-9 storm for 10 days for 5 flurries....you can understand the frustration. The best event was the Monday event which go the least hype from long range but we wasted 1.5 inches of qpf on 33 and rain. Its been just another frustrating winter and its tiresome Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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