mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 fwliw, trough on the NAM is deeper at 54hrs on this run than 12z run at 60 hrs....but I know, that ain't sayin' much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well...often times DC is a blind squirrel in a room with no nuts, at least this time there are nuts scattered around to be accidentally bumped into. I am sure those of you with a sense of humor will have a field day with this I can attest there are a lot of nuts around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 closer and deeper slp on the NAM, but not close enough; all we need now are trends similar to those of this past weekend debacle, life ending, suicidal, broker-hearted, I hate life, myself, and everyone in my life.....storm that better Randy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 fwliw, trough on the NAM is deeper at 54hrs on this run than 12z run at 60 hrs....but I know, that ain't sayin' much Doesnt really do much... still goes out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. This is an epic double wave but nothing for you kind of setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. trends...trends compare 12z and 18z same time not only is the storm closer, it's stronger; surface maps and 5H maps below (12Z on top and 18Z below); this is just one run and we have 3 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We need a phase. Or at least some interaction between the 2 waves. NAM is disheartening. Snow in PA and NC. Yeah we do! It's still not out of the realm of possibility, but it sure would be nice to have at least one of the globals on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 closer and deeper slp on the NAM, but not close enough; all we need now are trends similar to those of this past weekend debacle, life ending, suicidal, broker-hearted, I hate life, myself, and everyone in my life.....storm that better Randy? slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 trends...trends compare 12z and 18z same time not only is the storm closer, it's stronger; surface maps and 5H maps below (12Z on top and 18Z below); this is just one run and we have 3 days! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=075&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=081ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_075_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M it definitely does look better...though i'd say a trend is if it gets better at 0z. otherwise, could just be noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 just a refresher why trends at this distance are all we need to look for.... these are hours 72, 78, and 84 from the 12Z run of the NAM on Friday, 1/31 for the Monday morning rain event that dropped around an inch of qpf over us and well further north http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=72&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=78&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=84&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS is out. Mods delete if you want. 6hr precip mean for 0z Sun from todays run: Same timeframe from last nights eps run: Pretty much identical. At least it didn't move further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it definitely does look better...though i'd say a trend is if it gets better at 0z. otherwise, could just be noise. Yeah... its awfully close though. I said three days ago that Wednesday night is the run where this sh%$ gets real... unfortunately I thought I was going to be talking about a "lock it up" scenario... instead we are praying for the resurrection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS is out. Mods delete if you want. 6hr precip mean for 0z Sun from todays run: epsmean.JPG Same timeframe from last nights eps run: epsmeanyesterday.JPG Pretty much identical. At least it didn't move further east. Lol...I'm in Ocean City Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 just a refresher why trends at this distance are all we need to look for.... these are hours 72, 78, and 84 from the 12Z run of the NAM on Friday, 1/31 for the Monday morning rain event that dropped around an inch of qpf over us and well further north http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=72&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=78&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMCONUSArchive.php?datetime=2014013112Z%0D%0A&fcsthour=84&type=1000-500_SLPTHKPRP Funny... but accurate... that is definitely how it trended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billg Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison My God! - think we all feel that way from time to time - but seriously - wow Regards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 nws still feels that we'll see some measurable snow this weekend: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHERNSTREAM TROUGH NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES COASTAL LOW OFFSHORETHE MID ATLANTIC ON THE LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY. STILL SHOWING ANINVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY WITHWEAKER VORT MAX PHASING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THIS WAVE WILLBRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY. THEN AS POTENT NORTHERNSTREAM VORT ROTATES AROUND THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ASECOND ROUND OF SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS VARY ONTHE STRENGTH AND TRACK /WITH GFS FARTHER NORTH/ OF THIS SECOND VORTMAX. PHASING...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINTERRIBLY INCONSISTENT AND WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION /MAINLYSNOW/ LOOKS LIKELY AT SOME POINT...THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ONETHING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN FOR EARLYNEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oooh, euro ensembles support the op for tues wed. Surface and 850's plenty cold through 168. plenty of precip on the means. This is the most uncomplicated threat we've had. Not saying it can't easily fail. Just a nice moisture feed on the front side of a SINGLE vort leaving the southwest. Do we start another thread Feb 11-12... The EURO storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lol you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if that happens as depicted on the NAM, it would be painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. once you have 42 years of your adult (near adult) life of doing this under ur belt, you will too! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do we start another thread Feb 11-12... The EURO storm? you complain too much. Anyways, this is a solid eps run. Looks very much like the op. 850's look great through 180 on the averages. Most of our area is in the .20 - .25 contour on back to back 6 hour panels from 168-180. This is significant for ensemble runs. Some good agreement. I'm in. I might start a thread. They always works out. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 and if there was one day this winter I don't want it to snow it's Wed morning lolFunny me as well, I have a flight out of BWI at 11 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. Mine was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Funny me as well, I have a flight out of BWI at 11 a.m. oh no! me too! plumbers' convention???? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 oh no! me too! plumbers' convention???? Yup my pipes are really backed up, I have to get them cleaned in South Beach. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if that happens as depicted on the NAM, it would be painful Which storm? Man, these MA snow threads are kicking my ADD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok GFS, make us happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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