stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The issues that Bob, myself and others have talked about with the s/w are the main things to focus on here. The flaw in hm-light's logic is highlighted above. The first statement makes no sense. These things do not force the trough to dig if there are 3 different waves. Same thing applies for the second bold statement. Last Monday's snowstorm wasn't 3 different s/w interacting. It's not as easy as he is making it sound, even if the storm does trend back. Thanks and my deepest sympathies that you have to share initials with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thanks and my deepest sympathies that you have to share initials with him. As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nope, nowhere close to writing this one off...nobody should. Again, it's all about checked expectations. We did a full step down from yesterday...people have had enough time to adjust accordingly...goal now is 2 to 4, not a MECS I won't be satisfied unless we get 4 to 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As luck would have it, I picked these two letters randomly for a username and then years later one of the more popular weather dummies comes along with hm as initials. Of course, I should have done my homework before finalizing the username in the first place: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Molaison Boy you really hit the jackpot picking your username. Maybe you should think of changing it to Stillis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I won't be satisfied unless we get 4 to 6 inches of snow. I'll say this though, nobody, NE included, can beat the MA on modeled snow in the 7-10 day range....nobody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 2 interesting JMA maps first one shows JMA knows our climatology pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 2nd one shows this storm with 850 line in the central Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So we're not getting 36" of snow this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 but we tracked the Feb 8-9 storm for 10 days for 5 flurries....you can understand the frustration. The best event was the Monday event which go the least hype from long range but we wasted 1.5 inches of qpf on 33 and rain. Its been just another frustrating winter and its tiresome Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think it's been great. Well, my opinion would probably be different had I ended up w/ something decent on Monday. Today was actually the best ice event I've seen imby in a long, long time. Unfortunately, I care little about ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087&image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction I like optimistic Mitch. Depressing, whining Mitch is downright awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 2 interesting JMA maps first one shows JMA knows our climatology pretty well This is to funny, I see this all the time, just a smudge over dc'S HOLE..I HATE IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC A couple of us Debs were expecting that would be exactly how it worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREFs are at it....similar looking movie to last weekend 12hr precip from 87 hrs on the 9Z run (Sunday 00Z) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Sunday 00Z off the 15z run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_081_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p12&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 may not work out in the end, but it's the right direction If this keeps trending like last weekend i will come fix your plumbing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I like optimistic Mitch. Depressing, whining Mitch is downright awful. you mean the realistic Mitch? yeah, I hate him too but he shows up now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If this keeps trending like last weekend i will come fix your plumbing issues. my plumbing issues are fixed because I know my shiat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Worst part was if we looked at the first week of february temp and precip it would look just like the CFS2 that Mitch kept posting. This is exactly how that can verify without actually cashing in on any snow in DC Today's Euro was a very cold run. It keeps most of northern md well below freezing the entire run. If the cold verifies you have to figure one of these waves will work out region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is to funny, I see this all the time, just a smudge over dc'S HOLE..I HATE IT RavensRule signal just went off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 you mean the realistic Mitch? yeah, I hate him too but he shows up now and then No no..realistic Mitch is cool. That last iteration of you...whew...thank God it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A couple of us Debs were expecting that would be exactly how it worked out. Just goes to show you that pessimism is always the prudent approach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Next up: Euro ensembles...and the verdict is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Today's Euro was a very cold run. It keeps most of northern md well below freezing the entire run. If the cold verifies you have to figure one of these waves will work out region wide. I am actually optimistic there will be at least a decent snow hit in the DC area the next 2 weeks. I am way more bullish on the pattern ahead then some, but I am sure right now no one there wants to hear it after 3 misses in a row. I still have not given up on the weekend...so much going on and it would not take a big adjustment to get something. Right now the problem is being stuck in between...either a stronger front runner OR conserving more for the trailing vort would lead to a more amplified system, but they are splitting the difference and dampening each other out. I have a suspicion as we get closer one of these becomes dominant and the models key on it and suddenly we have a storm to track. I would favor the trailing vort because that would get my area in PA into the game...for you down there the lead wave is probably the better option. Just a gut feeling though, I could be wrong. After that I think there are a few waves that have potential but the models are having a hell of a time resolving things with so many waves in a fast flow so I am not going to pretend to know what will happen. I just think with so many opportunities during peak climo, and in a pattern that is not hostile...something is bound to work out sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Next up: Euro ensembles...and the verdict is? only out to 36 hours where I can see them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 my plumbing issues are fixed because I know my shiat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am actually optimistic there will be at least a decent snow hit in the DC area the next 2 weeks. I am way more bullish on the pattern ahead then some, but I am sure right now no one there wants to hear it after 3 misses in a row. I still have not given up on the weekend...so much going on and it would not take a big adjustment to get something. Right now the problem is being stuck in between...either a stronger front runner OR conserving more for the trailing vort would lead to a more amplified system, but they are splitting the difference and dampening each other out. I have a suspicion as we get closer one of these becomes dominant and the models key on it and suddenly we have a storm to track. I would favor the trailing vort because that would get my area in PA into the game...for you down there the lead wave is probably the better option. Just a gut feeling though, I could be wrong. After that I think there are a few waves that have potential but the models are having a hell of a time resolving things with so many waves in a fast flow so I am not going to pretend to know what will happen. I just think with so many opportunities during peak climo, and in a pattern that is not hostile...something is bound to work out sooner or later. The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 RavensRule signal just went off. It looks like DC is in the pink on my maps . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. well...often times DC is a blind squirrel in a room with no nuts, at least this time there are nuts scattered around to be accidentally bumped into. I am sure those of you with a sense of humor will have a field day with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The Blind Squirrel finds a nut sometimes theory. No. Climo and history tells us this is the most likely period during anytime throughout the entire year it is most likely to snow in the mid-atlantic, especially the DC-Balt. corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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