Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I've been fine this year tbh. It's already been a better winter than I expected. My peeve is the prolific posting from people who never add a single thing of value. Ever. It's not a double standard when long time regulars who often add value hit the banter button in disco thread is ok and a bunch of useless posts from an increasing # of people is not ok. I agree with this 100%!! I can understand it gets very frustrating to see things slip through our fingers in terms of a decent event. However, it's very annoying to get the "we're screwed, winter is over!!" posts and the other drive-by sarcastic comments that add nothing of value in what's supposed to be a model or analysis type of thread. In fact, it downright detracts from everything. Banter in the banter thread is one thing, even the trolling can be a bit amusing there, but not outside that. I admit that I sometimes make borderline comments, but I do try to temper the disappointment in the non-banter threads and at least add some kind of value or analysis. This winter has been pretty good for me, too. Though I'll admit it is a disappointment to see a lot of potential go down the drain, and we've had some serious potential so far this month. Oh well, that's how it goes. But I still think (or at least hope!) we'll manage a decent event before the season is over. What's funny (in a not funny way) is that while DCA itself managed to finally crack the 2" futility barrier this year, that location *still* has not gotten a warning-criteria snow since Commutageddon in January 2011! Even though most every place around them has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 All we can do is track and discuss. Meaningful discussion in the minority in disco threads this year. It's pretty sad. its hard to discuss when patterns are all over the place. this latest run shows promise again next week but are we getting teased again. That retrograding low rolling through the gulf of AK needs to get up and go. We need a bend with a WC ridge to at least give these NS vorts a place to go to snag a SS a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 depressing past couple of days. could of been a epic week. The monday storm was despressing....of course yesterdays cutter worked out perfectly:( and then the weekend threat is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I've been fine this year tbh. It's already been a better winter than I expected. My peeve is the prolific posting from people who never add a single thing of value. Ever. It's not a double standard when long time regulars who often add value hit the banter button in disco thread is ok and a bunch of useless posts from an increasing # of people is not ok. Some people dont know what to say.. but they enjoy being here and really want to be a part of the discussion so they try to add in some analysis... but ultimately it turns out to be nonsense cause they have no clue... and in some cases it is is the predictable weenie non-sense that gets regurgitated... stuff like "dont worry the GFS always "loses" the big storms at this range" ... I am definitely one of them... I just accept the fact that some people dont really know much and let there emotions get the best of them..... They just want it to snow.. thats all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm a huge snow lover and it's the reason I finally got an account instead of just lurking. And it's not been a fantastic winter for precip in central VA. The winter of freezing rain and bitter cold. Only a few scattered inches of snow here or there this year. But then again, while the "Snowquester" of last year left DC/MD high and wet... we got 8" back here. That was early March for goodness sake. But all of that said... I know the climate in which I live. I know it's always borderline. If I wanted to live in the cold and snow for four months of the year I'd move back to Chicago or St. Paul or Milwaukee. Yeah, I like the snow. Yeah, I like cold weather. But snowstorm after snowstorm and -35F wind chills are tough enough as a kid or college student. Now as an adult with little kids, I can't imagine the massive pain it must be to deal with that. That's not keeping me from cheering for this weekend or 2/12-14 though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If we can just get a storm then I feel confident we can get snow. Maybe it can manufacture its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the end, it's about good patterns and timing. We've had some good timing in not so good patterns and scored some marginal events. We've also had some better looking patterns, but did not get the timing right (this upcoming weekend). Models, of course will invariably screw up the timing at longer lead times which usually makes the 6 day weather porn ultimately unsatisfying in the end. The hunt for the next storm continues. Not being in the bull's eye for next week is a good start. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 its hard to discuss when patterns are all over the place. this latest run shows promise again next week but are we getting teased again. That retrograding low rolling through the gulf of AK needs to get up and go. We need a bend with a WC ridge to at least give these NS vorts a place to go to snag a SS a bit more. It is to some extent. But meaningful discussion is a pretty simple concept. Absolutes beyond short leads can't be discussed with any accuracy but long wave features and how they affect things aren't too hard to toss ideas around. I consider it a gift that the goa vortex isn't destroying the conus with pac air. High latitude heights are preventing it. Pretty lucky IMO. This year has simply found multiple ways to not bake us for any long stretch. Exact opposite of the last 2. We're in an active pattern of pac energy traversing the country but cold air is always near by. The pattern is not ripe for a big storm but it rarely is down here so it's easy to accept any chance of any size. At least it is for me. The weekend isn't dead for a light event. Not hard to track that and keep your head up. IMO- next week could have another sneaky vort before the potential for a larger system. Tight spacing of energy can pop up a threat every couple days. Keep an eye on the 10th give or take a day. There are hints of a piece of energy making its way. Could be nothing or could be something. The next larger storm has a plethora of possibilities. GFS is much colder while the euro relaxes quickly. Both global ensembles show potential for another prolific precip maker in the east half of the country. EPS last night is pretty wet at long leads for the 12-13th time period. But warmer. I hate boring periods with nothing to even consider. This year has definitely not been boring. And most of us will likely finish better than we though. Certainly was colder than anyone thought. And we haven't endured weeks of pac zonal or worse....nasty se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the end it's about good patterns and timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the end it's about good patterns and timing... I'm close to joining the bring on spring brigade. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the end it's about good patterns and timing... A pattern that appears full of potential can certainly deliver nothing. So far that has been the case. Weekend is not dead, and still have next week with some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This week has been an absolute disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Have no fear young Skywalker!!! The models will change 3 times before the first snowflake falls!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I still think a mini-mini version of what the Euro had a few runs ago, and the 18z GFS of yesterday, is certainly possible. Better to have weaker, flatter waves in a fast flow than gambling on the amped up phased idea.The de-amplified pattern doesn't really favor it, and too much can go wrong with that scenario when we only have transient blocking chances at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Meanwhile, the block is in the process of forming now, bringing one of the better potentials of the year for you guys over the next 7-10 days. Arguably, today was the correlated Archambault "precip loaded" first storm you get as the NAO goes from positive to negative. Is it classic? No... after all, it is a split between the polar vortex field. But it is in the domain that we care about more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In the end it's about good patterns and timing... Thanks for the validation. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Meanwhile, the block is in the process of forming now, bringing one of the better potentials of the year for you guys over the next 7-10 days. Arguably, today was the correlated Archambault "precip loaded" first storm you get as the NAO goes from positive to negative. Is it classic? No... after all, it is a split between the polar vortex field. But it is in the domain that we care about more. So HM do you think this weekend is still in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I do. I enjoy tracking storms. This is a weather enthusiast forum after all. Tracking models is different from tracking storms. Sometimes is wish we didn't have access to anything past 5 days. I just don't see how it's worth the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Okay I guess I was wrong on the not suppressed Idea. Models just bulldozed the flow in the past 24 hrs. POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So HM do you think this weekend is still in play? Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. thank you Dr. Feelgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Have no fear young Skywalker!!! The models will change 3 times before the first snowflake falls!!!! "I find your lack of faith in the flakes disturbing!" (Sorry, I just could not resist that!!") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. Ji change the thread title back pls (how about 'on life support'). HM says not fooked, no fat lady or germans bombing pearl harbor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Life support sounds about right, with feeding tube and vegetative state Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. I appreciate the input. I shifted focus on the lead wave but not confidently. Wouldn't take much relaxation in the brick wall above us to let it amplify a bit. Not sure how far north is could make it before being shunted out. Hopefully the euro drops a cookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Tracking models is different from tracking storms. Sometimes is wish we didn't have access to anything past 5 days. I just don't see how it's worth the time. Agreed. But then we wouldn't have the high and lows of every model run bringing a storm and then taking it away. Every few hours people jump on the snow train or jump off a cliff. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's quite entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This week has been an absolute disaster. I think it's been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I appreciate the input. I shifted focus on the lead wave but not confidently. Wouldn't take much relaxation in the brick wall above us to let it amplify a bit. Not sure how far north is could make it before being shunted out. Hopefully the euro drops a cookie. Yeah, that lead wave is my focus as well. GFS is treating it similarly to Monday's wave. But granted, Monday didn't have a PV displaced into Quebec. I also see the point about the SW USA ridge being flat. Still, we are only looking for enough amplification to get DC here, not have it trend to PHL-NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think it's been great. For NPZ...Stephens City got zippy this week...but you being in the far NW of Frederick Co you still have snow on the ground and did OK on Monday. Of course, SNOville, being even higher and more NW, it's been a great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wide right...at least we get a little light snow on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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