usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 all the models are showing west based blocking...and the low is weak...I wouldn't punt a decent overrunning scenario...plus we don't know what is going to happen anyway...I'd lock in the GFS and its 4-6" of snow for me I wouldn't either especially for those in the area snow zone out to the west and north. There is confluence which is why the low pops off the coast. I still could see the northern stream screwing things up more than forecast on today's GFS but there is so much uncertainty I would rule out any ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmorelights Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Normally I'd be all in on this after today's poor performance, but my first child is due on Saturday, and I'd like to be able to get to the hospital if need be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? It didn't show the 00z GFS solution again so it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? when did you move to the Dc area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In this winter of marginal, tracker, I am happy for any modeled whatever. But Miller B front-end stuff six days out...so much that can go wrong with that. I am not unhappy, just noting the set-up on that run is one that can (will?) easily screw those of us who usually get screwed - even if Matt's 4-6 front end thump is the baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 not sure where matt is getting that the gfs has 4-6 for him. 2-3 sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It didn't show the 00z GFS solution again so it sucks Yoda, what does the GGEM show in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? yesterday's 12z had a cutter. this 12z has a slow transfer from KY to Hat. The trend is a net positive so I don't get it either. Heck, by tomorrows 12z it could be an OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 when did you move to the Dc area? Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? A run that looks pretty decent all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yesterday's 12z had a cutter. this 12z has a slow transfer from KY to Hat. The trend is a net positive so I don't get it either. Heck, by tomorrows 12z it could be an OTS You forgot to mention the epic KU on the 0z run. Now a front ender with the chance of a classic Miller B screw doesn't look so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT kinda poo pooing this storm for cities. Snow to rain. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT kinda poo pooing this storm for cities. Snow to rain. Sent from my iPhone Idk about the poo poo part, but based on this run that would be my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I just compared 0z/12z h5 anoms from 156/144. You guys are paranoid. Very little meaningful changes where it counts most. If h5 patterns hold in canada another couple days and we can forget about a big cut or driving a primary to cleveland. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ggem is nice miler A scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I just compared 0z/12z h5 anoms from 156/144. You guys are paranoid. Very little meaningful changes where it counts most. If h5 patterns hold in canada another couple days and we can forget about a big cut or driving a primary to cleveland. Sheesh. Guilty. But, given where I live and you live and Ian/Matt/Wes/H20/tracker etc live, paranoid with reason often. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You forgot to mention the epic KU on the 0z run. Now a front ender with the chance of a classic Miller B screw doesn't look so hot. Was only comparing 12z runs which have been wildly different from the 0z runs. When a model flip flops so much in 12 hrs I step back to look at the same time runs from the previous days to see where a model might be trying to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I just compared 0z/12z h5 anoms from 156/144. You guys are paranoid. Very little meaningful changes where it counts most. If h5 patterns hold in canada another couple days and we can forget about a big cut or driving a primary to cleveland. Sheesh. People are probably just bummed about today's fail(except the Westminster folks). Still a good look overall, and 6 days out lots can happen. Just seems a Miller B type deal is favored. Need better block/confluence and get the coastal transfer going further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 There are some crushing hits on the GEFS. A few also take the primary to Cleveland. A fair number look like the Op at least in terms of end-result (i.e., snow-to-rain/dryslot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Check out the 12z GEFS mean... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 top 5 GFS OP 6-10 day analogs....3 of the 5 had snow, but they were all small events...1.7", 1.3", 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GGEM had a 1007 L in C GA at 144... goes to a 992 L at 156 near 40/70... suggesting it comes off near the VA/NC border into the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let me get this right....there is misery for a d6 system based on one run of the 12z GFS? Welcome to the boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 top 5 GFS OP 6-10 day analogs....3 of the 5 had snow, but they were all small events...1.7", 1.3", 0.4" last night's Euro ENS - only 2 of top 5 had snow...0.4" and 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 There are some crushing hits on the GEFS. A few also take the primary to Cleveland. A fair number look like the Op at least in terms of end-result (i.e., snow-to-rain/dryslot). I just clicked through. 2 miller A's. Majority transfer with front end stuff. A couple crying in your cheerios. Interestingly...there are 3 that give us some overrunning snow before the main show.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 last night's Euro ENS - only 2 of top 5 had snow...0.4" and 0.2" Discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DT kinda poo pooing this storm for cities. Snow to rain. Sent from my iPhone DT will swing all week with the various model solutions, and a day before the event will proclaim how great he is and how everyone else sucks, and then after the storm will say he had the one right idea all along. Early guess, first guess, first call, updated guess, second call, final call, updated final call, new final call, last call, final last call, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z UKIE at 144 -- 1008 L in in extreme NW SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 last night's Euro ENS - only 2 of top 5 had snow...0.4" and 0.2" Lol so what are we doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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