Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Meanwhile, the block is in the process of forming now, bringing one of the better potentials of the year for you guys over the next 7-10 days. Arguably, today was the correlated Archambault "precip loaded" first storm you get as the NAO goes from positive to negative. Is it classic? No... after all, it is a split between the polar vortex field. But it is in the domain that we care about more. So HM do you think this weekend is still in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I do. I enjoy tracking storms. This is a weather enthusiast forum after all. Tracking models is different from tracking storms. Sometimes is wish we didn't have access to anything past 5 days. I just don't see how it's worth the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Okay I guess I was wrong on the not suppressed Idea. Models just bulldozed the flow in the past 24 hrs. POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So HM do you think this weekend is still in play? Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. thank you Dr. Feelgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Have no fear young Skywalker!!! The models will change 3 times before the first snowflake falls!!!! "I find your lack of faith in the flakes disturbing!" (Sorry, I just could not resist that!!") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. Ji change the thread title back pls (how about 'on life support'). HM says not fooked, no fat lady or germans bombing pearl harbor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Life support sounds about right, with feeding tube and vegetative state Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yes. The southern s/w on the GFS is laughable. The GGEM today is better and looks like 00z Euro. I think the storm is very much still in play and next week is very much a threat. I appreciate the input. I shifted focus on the lead wave but not confidently. Wouldn't take much relaxation in the brick wall above us to let it amplify a bit. Not sure how far north is could make it before being shunted out. Hopefully the euro drops a cookie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Tracking models is different from tracking storms. Sometimes is wish we didn't have access to anything past 5 days. I just don't see how it's worth the time. Agreed. But then we wouldn't have the high and lows of every model run bringing a storm and then taking it away. Every few hours people jump on the snow train or jump off a cliff. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's quite entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This week has been an absolute disaster. I think it's been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I appreciate the input. I shifted focus on the lead wave but not confidently. Wouldn't take much relaxation in the brick wall above us to let it amplify a bit. Not sure how far north is could make it before being shunted out. Hopefully the euro drops a cookie. Yeah, that lead wave is my focus as well. GFS is treating it similarly to Monday's wave. But granted, Monday didn't have a PV displaced into Quebec. I also see the point about the SW USA ridge being flat. Still, we are only looking for enough amplification to get DC here, not have it trend to PHL-NYC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think it's been great. For NPZ...Stephens City got zippy this week...but you being in the far NW of Frederick Co you still have snow on the ground and did OK on Monday. Of course, SNOville, being even higher and more NW, it's been a great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If you read what someone posted from the NWS earlier today on the possible weekend storm, it gives you hope that the models may jump on board late with this storm. That said, 2 runs showing the same thing (for most part) on GFS is worrisome and 3 runs would become a trend. Hope the EURO gives us something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wide right...at least we get a little light snow on saturday trough looks better and the 700mb rh looked darn good on the Day 3 Plymouth map I would have thought an inch or two looking at those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 wide right...at least we get a little light snow on saturday how much difference from the 0z run? Any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z run had the second northern stream wave rushing in to amplify things more. This run is more separated, for sure. The southern wave with the SLP track is nearly identical to 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z run had the second northern stream wave rushing in to amplify things more. This run is more separated, for sure. The southern wave with the SLP track is nearly identical to 00z run. better or worse for the 2nd wave (why do I think I know this answer...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There are low anomalies undercutting the E PAC ridge and the Hudson Bay ridge so the timing of these are uncertain. In this case, the slower arrival reduced the QPF in the Northeast because it broadened the trough. Next up, EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There are low anomalies undercutting the E PAC ridge and the Hudson Bay ridge so the timing of these are uncertain. In this case, the slower arrival reduced the QPF in the Northeast because it broadened the trough. Next up, EPS. Interestingly, the GFS had the northern stream waves behaving like the 00z ECMWF but lacked the southern wave both ECMWF runs have. Dizzying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 better or worse for the 2nd wave (why do I think I know this answer...)It's got nothing to work with being so separated. We get a little light snow. Nobody gets much anywhere. Without some sort of interaction with the lead wave it becomes a no nevermind for everybody. It's too flat to pop anything. If it did it would be north of us anyways.More changes to follow I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I think it's been great. The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true. -James Branch Cabell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Little light snow showing up on monday now with a weak piece of energy zipping along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's no denying that the end of an Archambault series is more interesting for the Mid Atlantic than the beginning or middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's no denying that the end of an Archambault series is more interesting for the Mid Atlantic than the beginning or middle... You're such a tease..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 -Euro 144H nice s/w moving over the South West -1006mb Low over Western Texas -1034 H Parked over the Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 -Euro 144H nice s/w moving over the South West -1006mb Low over Western Texas -1034 H Parked over the Lakes it showed the same thing a few days ago for this weekend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it showed the same thing a few days ago for this weekend..... i think sometimes we need to let a pattern run it's course, like this latest one. maybe next week will provide more options. mid-february can be a diesel period for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it showed the same thing a few days ago for this weekend.....It did. But for now this run looks great. Lets hug it.The pesky low tracking the northern tier on last nights run has been replaced with a 1030 hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It did. But for now this run looks great. Lets hug it. Yes it does... eventually one of these storms will appear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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