CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends. Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm. They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact. I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition. Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. The general public(non weather hobbyists) caught onto it from social media, specifically FB and some idiot who poses as a weather expert, and calls himself weatherboy weather. He posted a single run of the Euro control model, which showed the MA and SNE getting 30-40" of snow. It was a total snowfall map for Feb 1 through 10, not a single storm. And no way it would verify either way. Anyway it got shared a few thousand times and went viral. Social media fostering the propagation of misinformation...imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends. Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm. They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact. I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition. Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. i think this is because of who posted the control run of the euro, hell even my money manager told me about the "epic winter event" this weekend, I told him it was bogus, he said that was not what he was told. I didn't go any further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 if your taking xanax for lack of snow then you have a serious problem take a break j/k. The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 A nice and dry weekend ahead here in Central VA. We need to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 j/k. The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration. I am sorry to hear that. Very stressful. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The problem w/ the phase scenario is that the 2 vorts are becoming further and further distanced with each run. Getting to the point where it's not gonna be close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill. Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Let's wait until Friday when the energy enters better sampeling grids. Right now, model runs don't mean much. With every big event there was a period of time when the models didn't show it. Lots of storms have suddenly changed on the models when the energy entered the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does the Berk say - Snow snow snow to snow snow....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 What does the Berk say - Snow snow snow to snow snow....... #FITF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks.Once in awhile, sure. But more often than not, no. I sure wouldn't mind seeing some model runs today do something other than shunt that energy off the coast in NC. I sure don't think chirping "north trend" means anything, particularly with that northern stream dealie looking like a kicker to keep it from having any chance of coming north.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way. EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead. Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way. EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead. Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo. Bob, for your scenario to have a chance, don't we need that NS vort to slow down and give the southern one a chance to amplify a tad? Seems to me (unless I am reading it wrong, which is very possible) that the northern vort sends the southern one packing before it can really get to us, and leaves us in-between the two pieces of energy for the most part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Can't wait till El Niño Moderate. Without blocking. It's gonna be wet and warm next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Bob, for your scenario to have a chance, don't we need that NS vort to slow down and give the southern one a chance to amplify a tad? Seems to me (unless I am reading it wrong, which is very possible) that the northern vort sends the southern one packing before it can really get to us, and leaves us in-between the two pieces of energy for the most part...Hard to say the "perfect" scenario. I think confluence and minimal riding off the ec as the front runner approaches is more of a killer than lack of amplification on the back due to the ns vort.The entire evolution is complicated even without a phase. I have a hunch that lwx may be right about the first piece ending up more amplified out in front. It's really close to use as it is. It's not like we are praying for 200 mile shift. 100 miles with the nw side of the precip shield would make some folks happy (unless they are sold on getting a big storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One of my co-workers is on the phone right now with someone talking about the potential for this storm, as he has to travel on Monday. His wife is a former Air Force meteorologist, so he knows a little bit about the weather and is downplaying it a bit. But you can tell that the person on the other end is really concerned about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Moderate. Without blocking. It's gonna be wet and warm next winter. Yeah all those looking ahead to next winter and the prospects of a Nino, that doesn't guarantee squat. Far from it. Plenty of ways to get fooked, and you just mentioned 2 biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Moderate. Without blocking. It's gonna be wet and warm next winter. Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!) we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= EDIT: same time, 0z Sunday, Euro has a 1008 slp due east of HAT by 100-150 miles while SREFs put it further south off Myrtle Beach by about the same distance and mean is 1016 the north trend only works when it screws up. Otherwise it stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way. EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead. Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo. We can't ignore the strong ensemble signal of getting screwed, but we can ignore the strong ensemble signal from 12-24 hours prior of getting a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 j/k. The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration. my apologies. sometimes I.m too serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks. Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. still brilliant at stating the obvious, eh fozz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody should be bailing now. It's just way too early. If models keep these weak or OTS solution after 0z tonight, then it may be time to consider they are on to something...but even then I'm not punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 First Ever Call. Snow....heavy at times for most of the forecast area.....but not the Snowmeggedon some are talking about This is subject to Change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody should be bailing now. It's just way too early. If models keep these weak or OTS solution after 0z tonight, then it may be time to consider they are on to something...but even then I'm not punting. Totally agreed, i would not bail until Friday at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 First Ever Call. Snow....heavy at times for most of the forecast area.....but not the Snowmeggedon some are talking about This is subject to Change Who are you? This is a good call... For Maine, next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. True. I hope we get a Rosie O'Donnell-sized Nina with uber blocking. Central and eastern NC-VA-MD Miller B crushings. As for this weekend, I'm still not concerned about what has been going on with the models the last 12 hours. If we're still seeing the big separation between vorts through 18z today, and there's no move to get that first vort more north, then we know there's a problem. And even if it's not looking good, the general trend this season has been for fairly big changes in track and precip amounts relatively late in the game, so there's still some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One of my co-workers is on the phone right now with someone talking about the potential for this storm, as he has to travel on Monday. His wife is a former Air Force meteorologist, so he knows a little bit about the weather and is downplaying it a bit. But you can tell that the person on the other end is really concerned about it. I, too, have noticed more than the usual cadre of co-workers having their knickers in a twist over "huge" snow totals in the upcoming weekend storm. Until C.A.P.E. mentioned it, I had no idea that some of it was generated by a viral Lamebook posting, though that doesn't surprise me at all. God knows most of the people I work with can't go without their daily force-feeding of Lamebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS looks a little better with the lead wave. Dont think we will know anything until that wave gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gfs looks like crap for this weekend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.