yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really? GFS certainly knows how to throw in a punch in the nuts Although didnt MN say something about the VDay time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Really? GFS certainly knows how to throw in a punch in the nuts Anything on ggem ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol @ living and dying by every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Anything on ggem ? Nope, not for us at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 lol @ living and dying by every run I dunno, it seems to be a slow death with an occasional sign o life.. but seems fatal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GEFS supports the crappy op GFS run. Congrats New York City and north. Kind of expecting, but hoping against the Euro going towards this kind of solution. If the Euro does shift towards the GFS solution, it may be time to shift focus to the big Valentine's Day threat. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ninja'd. About to say the same thing. 18z GEFS look MILES better than 12z. Pretty good support for the Op. GEFS supports the crappy op GFS run. Congrats New York City and north. Kind of expecting, but hoping against the Euro going towards this kind of solution. If the Euro does shift towards the GFS solution, it may be time to shift focus to the big Valentine's Day threat. MDstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Any precip from that 1006 L about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras sent back into the LWX CWA at 96 hrs on the 00z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Any precip from that 1006 L about 200 miles east of Cape Hatteras sent back into the LWX CWA at 96 hrs on the 00z EURO? little precip, congrats Richmond, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 frontrunner is a near miss and gives DC maybe 1-2" on Saturday....Sunday is a dud for everyone and we get snowshowers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 frontrunner is a near miss and gives DC maybe 1-2" on Saturday....Sunday is a dud for everyone and we get snowshowers... Near miss in like 2-4? I wish that low would come just a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why did I stay up for rain and that euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Near miss in like 2-4? I wish that low would come just a bit further north eyeballing the panels the 0.5" contour is about 50-60 mi se of DC....the 0.25" contour maybe 20-30 mi to our se...a step in the right direction for the saturday frontrunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 the 0.5" contour is about 50-60 mi se of DC....the 0.25" contour near Wes's backyard...maybe a tad south of there Thanks... is confluence keeping this system to our south... or will future runs perhaps bring this up north some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Thanks... is confluence keeping this system to our south... or will future runs perhaps bring this up north some? it can come north....it misses philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it can come north....it misses philly Moving it north just a tad more... like 50-100 miles would probably give us some nice snow... I wouldn't mind getting that late Sat... at least something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Moving it north just a tad more... like 50-100 miles would probably give us some nice snow... I wouldn't mind getting that late Sat... at least something heh...we get a proper storm on Tues-Wed...delayed, not denied...soon we'll have the 2/12 thread EDIT - 4-5" before we change over to freezing rain and then warm rain...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 6z gfs also keeps the southern wave away and makes the northern stream system dominant. No bueno for us. It does keep hope alive for a southern miller a type next week by Thursday. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 6z gfs also keeps the southern wave away and makes the northern stream system dominant. No bueno for us. It does keep hope alive for a southern miller a type next week by Thursday. Sent from my iPhone I love when the GFS consistently shows a storms exactly 7 days out.. run after run.. like a dog chasing its tail... that one next Thurs looks pretty.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks like you guys needed some hope From LWX: THIS WEEKEND PRESENTS A CHALLENGING FORECAST. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE AT THE MOMENT BACKED OFF ON MORE AGGRESSIVE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LESS INTENSE COASTAL REFLECTION DUE TO THE FLATTER FLOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ONE CONCERN IS THE FLAT FLOW CURRENTLY DISPLAYED IN A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AS MODELS TEND TO UNDER-DO THE STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THIS WOULD CAUSE A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LIKELY MORE PHASING...AND A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GEFS STILL INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH ON SEEING AT LEAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AFTER THE POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it won't take much of a change to make everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 it won't take much of a change to make everyone happy. You know the stress level is high when Xanax doesn't relieve my anxiety over this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 You know the stress level is high when Xanax doesn't relieve my anxiety over this winter. if your taking xanax for lack of snow then you have a serious problem take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seems like our snows this winter have been ones that didn't look like anything until a day or two before they happened, so I'm going with that hope. I have to admit being jealous of a co-worker that has a place in Deep Creek Lake -- he's a snow lover and heads out there a lot. Man that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not much is resolved with the op runs still all over the place. The general idea at this time, looking at the operational and ensemble guidance, is for a rather weak low sliding to the south probably off the NC coast and heading ENE and not up the coast. We have seen these waves quite a few times recently, get stronger, wetter and a bit further north inside of 3 days. Going with the Euro idea, should that occur we could see a moderate event in the MA. Big storm is probably off the table, and that is a good thing imo as anything that amps up in this pattern would likely screw this area. All subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Not much is resolved with the op runs still all over the place. The general idea at this time, looking at the operational and ensemble guidance, is for a rather weak low sliding to the south probably off the NC coast and heading ENE and not up the coast. We have seen these waves quite a few times recently, get stronger, wetter and a bit further north inside of 3 days. Going with the Euro idea, should that occur we could see a moderate event in the MA. Big storm is probably off the table, and that is a good thing imo as anything that amps up in this pattern would likely screw this area. All subject to change of course. This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends. Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm. They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact. I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition. Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!) we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= EDIT: same time, 0z Sunday, Euro has a 1008 slp due east of HAT by 100-150 miles while SREFs put it further south off Myrtle Beach by about the same distance and mean is 1016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!) we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends. Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm. They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact. I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition. Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. I agree with this - not sure how, but tons of people know in my office that I follow the weather (by which I mean lurk here, read CWG, and learn what I can) and they're all expecting a foot of snow on Saturday night or Sunday. I keep telling them it's far from certain we'll get anything, but several have said they saw it on TV, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill. well, that's because we're too far north for southern stream systems and too far south from northern stream generated systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.