mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One of my co-workers is on the phone right now with someone talking about the potential for this storm, as he has to travel on Monday. His wife is a former Air Force meteorologist, so he knows a little bit about the weather and is downplaying it a bit. But you can tell that the person on the other end is really concerned about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Moderate. Without blocking. It's gonna be wet and warm next winter. Yeah all those looking ahead to next winter and the prospects of a Nino, that doesn't guarantee squat. Far from it. Plenty of ways to get fooked, and you just mentioned 2 biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Moderate. Without blocking. It's gonna be wet and warm next winter. Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!) we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= EDIT: same time, 0z Sunday, Euro has a 1008 slp due east of HAT by 100-150 miles while SREFs put it further south off Myrtle Beach by about the same distance and mean is 1016 the north trend only works when it screws up. Otherwise it stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way. EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead. Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo. We can't ignore the strong ensemble signal of getting screwed, but we can ignore the strong ensemble signal from 12-24 hours prior of getting a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 j/k. The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration. my apologies. sometimes I.m too serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks. Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. still brilliant at stating the obvious, eh fozz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody should be bailing now. It's just way too early. If models keep these weak or OTS solution after 0z tonight, then it may be time to consider they are on to something...but even then I'm not punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 First Ever Call. Snow....heavy at times for most of the forecast area.....but not the Snowmeggedon some are talking about This is subject to Change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody should be bailing now. It's just way too early. If models keep these weak or OTS solution after 0z tonight, then it may be time to consider they are on to something...but even then I'm not punting. Totally agreed, i would not bail until Friday at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 First Ever Call. Snow....heavy at times for most of the forecast area.....but not the Snowmeggedon some are talking about This is subject to Change Who are you? This is a good call... For Maine, next December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nobody knows squat about what next winter will bring, and while El Nino is no guarantee of cold and snow, it increases DC's odds of getting above average snowfall. True. I hope we get a Rosie O'Donnell-sized Nina with uber blocking. Central and eastern NC-VA-MD Miller B crushings. As for this weekend, I'm still not concerned about what has been going on with the models the last 12 hours. If we're still seeing the big separation between vorts through 18z today, and there's no move to get that first vort more north, then we know there's a problem. And even if it's not looking good, the general trend this season has been for fairly big changes in track and precip amounts relatively late in the game, so there's still some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 One of my co-workers is on the phone right now with someone talking about the potential for this storm, as he has to travel on Monday. His wife is a former Air Force meteorologist, so he knows a little bit about the weather and is downplaying it a bit. But you can tell that the person on the other end is really concerned about it. I, too, have noticed more than the usual cadre of co-workers having their knickers in a twist over "huge" snow totals in the upcoming weekend storm. Until C.A.P.E. mentioned it, I had no idea that some of it was generated by a viral Lamebook posting, though that doesn't surprise me at all. God knows most of the people I work with can't go without their daily force-feeding of Lamebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS looks a little better with the lead wave. Dont think we will know anything until that wave gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Gfs looks like crap for this weekend. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 First Ever Call. Snow....heavy at times for most of the forecast area.....but not the Snowmeggedon some are talking about This is subject to Change Well, that does it for me. I can rest easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So the GFS finally gets a little consistency....of course it does when it shows a ****ty solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS looks a little better with the lead wave. Dont think we will know anything until that wave gets sampled. It looks OK when it's down in Arizona/New Mexico, then it gets washed out as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Who are you? This is a good call... For Maine, next December. I am me. Thanks for the support. I like my call and don't really care about your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Pretty boring for everybody. doh. Is what it is and wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Pretty boring for everybody. doh. Is what it is and wait and see. The outlook is pretty bleak, let's be honest. We've gone from a deep trough, Miller A rolling up the coast into a beautiful transient block to a strong out shallow mess that's OTS. It's really remarkable, but there you have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It looks OK when it's down in Arizona/New Mexico, then it gets washed out as it heads east. Baby steps. This solution is probably correct. But a bit stronger vort and its a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't need to wait and see. Though I think some light snows are a good bet. A piece of energy coming ashore in the PAC NW in a flat fast uniform flow is not conducive to a big storm. I meant wait and see if we can get an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I guess now we just have to hope that first wave can amplify enough to get us a little something. Perhaps that EURO will start that trend today, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 don't worry, the next one is our....if not that one, the next one after that...and then there's the next one after that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 don't worry, the next one is our....if not that one, the next one after that...and then there's the next one after that..... Next one looks kinda good too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lol GFS shows a pretty good HP at 138 hours....wonder if the branches will phase, though the northern one looks a little fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 GFS will give us a great VD present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I guess now we just have to hope that first wave can amplify enough to get us a little something. Perhaps that EURO will start that trend today, Would that be the same EURO that showed a huge snowstorm just 48 hours ago? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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