psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 every run is a new solution. Love it.until the run that gives you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Dripping wet, or in this case snowy. QPF is 0.75-1.25" region-wide. That would be the heaviest snowstorm of the season by a fair margin. Looks like there are many roads that go where we want to be either through fully phased Miller A or a energetic Midwest bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 until the run that gives you nothing. We just had that run at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 We just had that run at 12z Can't wait for the 00z clipper....6z Chicago cutter...12z southern slider next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Can't wait for the 00z clipper....6z Chicago cutter...12z southern slider next If somehow on AmericanWX I could favorite a post. JI. Maybe you should post that on Twitter. I'll hook you up. LOL. Yeah. Happy hour on the train to NYC. Good times. Anyway. Love the latest trend that will change 15 more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we are going to get there The stratospheric PV split and epic anticyclonic wave break in the North Pacific make this the best East Canadian/NAO setup so far this year. In December, we came very close to this same thing happening but the strat wasn't as hospitable as it is now. It still led to a winter storm though. Good expectations so far in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The stratospheric PV split and epic anticyclonic wave break in the North Pacific make this the best East Canadian/NAO setup so far this year. In December, we came very close to this same thing happening but the strat wasn't as hospitable as it is now. It still led to a winter storm though. Good expectations so far in this thread. well that's a mistake I'll have to correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 well that's a mistake I'll have to correct! You should take a 24 hour break from this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 well that's a mistake I'll have to correct! You should take a 24 hour break from this board Pot meet kettle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You should take a 24 hour break from this board and you 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yep, I'd take this run, because you know it would trend stronger and wetter as we got closer of course when it trends stronger and wetter it'll shift north and hit Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Surprised it came back this way. We still are not getting the full phase but at least the vort is stronger. Good run for sure. The position of the PV is so much better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Agree with everyone else's thinking that the first shortwave cannot be in a better spot for a HECS if it can amplify. It actually resembles the setup last February 8th where models were unable to key in on the southern stream until very late in the game. This time H5 would be able to close off much further south and hit us with decent snow, not just New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Agree with everyone else's thinking that the first shortwave cannot be in a better spot for a HECS if it can amplify. It actually resembles the setup last February 8th where models were unable to key in on the southern stream until very late in the game. This time H5 would be able to close off much further south and hit us with decent snow, not just New England. hehe...nobody thinks we are getting a HECS...we'd be lucky to get a 3-6" storm...the chances of complete fail are I would say 100 times better than chances of a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFs are inside the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not extrapolating...I get 0.6" with a light snow appetizer on saturday....probably more like 6-8" for DC - Balt all snow...hook it up It's a nice run but doesn't change much. It's nice that it is sort of like the euro but wetter with the second wave. I think that might make sense but I also could still see it amplifying and leaving you and I in a not so great place. Still it's way better than seeing the GSF has a OH valley or Lakes storm. If we can hold the confluence up to our north, we could do well. At least today there wwas one nice analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEFs are inside the OP Yes, a huge difference between them and the 12Z package. Much more agreement with many more having a a decent look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, a huge difference between them and the 12Z package. Much more agreement with many more having a a decent look. Ninja'd. About to say the same thing. 18z GEFS look MILES better than 12z. Pretty good support for the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 hehe...nobody thinks we are getting a HECS...we'd be lucky to get a 3-6" storm...the chances of complete fail are I would say 100 times better than chances of a HECS I understand your pessimism living so close to DCA. Today's model runs have the look that many other HECSs have had 3 days out So I think there's a decent chance for one from Wilmington north. The Polar shortwave may wreck our chances, but if it can stay out of the way long enough, even DC will be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Of course it wont verify as is, but I like the general idea and most in this sub forum would be happy with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z will be the most important run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ninja'd. About to say the same thing. 18z GEFS look MILES better than 12z. Pretty good support for the Op. And the few amped ones that do take a west track are becoming unlikely solutions. Not impossible of course but unlikely given the height patterns in front. If you look at the 18z as a whole, the biggest worry is the trailing vort tracking overhead. That wouldn't end well but philly would add to their pretty epic year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z will be the most important run of our lives until tomorrow night at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z finally shows a midatl storm and screws the NE. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z finally shows a midatl storm and screws the NE. Book it. well it shows it this time, but with 5 days to go, lord only knows what it will show next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 well it shows it this time, but with 5 days to go, lord only knows what it will show next At 0z it will be less than 5 days. I assume the variations in model output would begin to settle down little by little. We are getting close. Keeping fingers crossed for a decent wintry event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 18z finally shows a midatl storm and screws the NE. Book it. Here are the current odds I give this system in my totally subjective estimation based on my previous tracking experiences and flipping through KU. MA Special ~ 2/17/1979: 20% Inland runner ~ 2/142007: 30% NYC North ~ 2/8/1969: 30% HECS ~ 3/4/1960: 30% Out to sea ~ CMC 12z -10% ARW Cleveland Superbomb: 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I understand your pessimism living so close to DCA. Today's model runs have the look that many other HECSs have had 3 days out So I think there's a decent chance for one from Wilmington north. The Polar shortwave may wreck our chances, but if it can stay out of the way long enough, even DC will be in. well yeah, 40N can get a HECS when someone sneezes...I was talking about for DC metro 2 of the bigger features concern me for a major storm to work.... 1) the trough over the Maritimes is transient and not particularly robust, so we need more timing than we ideally want 2) there is no trough off the NW and ridge to its northeast.. ...we get some stream separation but it isn't the split flow/+PNA we want...the flow is more uniform, so we need to rely on the west based ridging to force anything south...which it does....but the 12z GFS scenario is believable, where the initial phase is a complete whiff...I mean why does the ULL have to phase? I'm not saying we will get some Toledo to Erie track...but there is no ostensible reason why it would need to barrel southeastward...How many times in a big storm does our main piece of energy come through the PAC NW? I'd much rather see something enter the CONUS in Montana or North Dakota and have no choice but to drop southeastward like a 500,000 lb bowling ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here are the current odds I give this system in my totally subjective estimation based on my previous tracking experiences and flipping through KU. MA Special ~ 2/17/1979: 20% Inland runner ~ 2/142007: 30% NYC North ~ 2/8/1969: 30% HECS ~ 3/4/1960: 30% Out to sea ~ CMC 12z -10% ARW Cleveland Superbomb: 0% 120% odds I see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 120% odds I see... Out to sea is -10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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