Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking

[yoda]

the 0.5" contour is about 50-60 mi se of DC....the 0.25" contour near Wes's backyard...maybe a tad south of there

 

Thanks... is confluence keeping this system to our south... or will future runs perhaps bring this up north some?

[yoda]

it can come north....it misses philly

 

 

Moving it north just a tad more... like 50-100 miles would probably give us some nice snow... I wouldn't mind getting that late Sat... at least something

[North Balti Zen]

6z gfs also keeps the southern wave away and makes the northern stream system dominant. No bueno for us. It does keep hope alive for a southern miller a type next week by Thursday.

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[PDIII]

6z gfs also keeps the southern wave away and makes the northern stream system dominant. No bueno for us. It does keep hope alive for a southern miller a type next week by Thursday.

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I love when the GFS consistently shows a storms exactly 7 days out.. run after run.. like a dog chasing its tail... that one next Thurs looks pretty.. lol

[weatherwonder]

Looks like you guys needed some hope

From LWX:

THIS WEEKEND PRESENTS A CHALLENGING FORECAST. A SOUTHERN STREAM

SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS AND

APPROACH THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE

IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE

GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE AT THE MOMENT BACKED OFF ON MORE

AGGRESSIVE PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAVE A LESS

INTENSE COASTAL REFLECTION DUE TO THE FLATTER FLOW...PARTICULARLY IN

THE SOUTHERN STREAM. ONE CONCERN IS THE FLAT FLOW CURRENTLY

DISPLAYED IN A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AS

MODELS TEND TO UNDER-DO THE STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OFF THE

EAST COAST OF THE US. THIS WOULD CAUSE A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN

STREAM WAVE AND LIKELY MORE PHASING...AND A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS OF THE GEFS STILL INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL WITH STRONG

CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST

PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH

THE SOMEWHAT FASTER FLOW. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST AS

CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH ON SEEING AT LEAST MEASURABLE

PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

AFTER THE POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A

RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO

EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

[H2O]

it won't take much of a change to make everyone happy.  

[J.Mike]

it won't take much of a change to make everyone happy.  

You know the stress level is high when Xanax doesn't relieve my anxiety over this winter.

[mdsnowlover]

You know the stress level is high when Xanax doesn't relieve my anxiety over this winter.

if your taking xanax for lack of snow then you have a serious problem take a break

[BlizzardNole]

Seems like our snows this winter have been ones that didn't look like anything until a day or two before they happened, so I'm going with that hope.

I have to admit being jealous of a co-worker that has a place in Deep Creek Lake -- he's a snow lover and heads out there a lot. Man that would be nice.

[CAPE]

Not much is resolved with the op runs still all over the place. The general idea at this time, looking at the operational and ensemble guidance, is for a rather weak low sliding to the south probably off the NC coast and heading ENE and not up the coast. We have seen these waves quite a few times recently, get stronger, wetter and a bit further north inside of 3 days. Going with the Euro idea, should that occur we could see a moderate event in the MA. Big storm is probably off the table, and that is a good thing imo as anything that amps up in this pattern would likely screw this area. All subject to change of course.

[birdsofprey02]

Not much is resolved with the op runs still all over the place. The general idea at this time, looking at the operational and ensemble guidance, is for a rather weak low sliding to the south probably off the NC coast and heading ENE and not up the coast. We have seen these waves quite a few times recently, get stronger, wetter and a bit further north inside of 3 days. Going with the Euro idea, should that occur we could see a moderate event in the MA. Big storm is probably off the table, and that is a good thing imo as anything that amps up in this pattern would likely screw this area. All subject to change of course.

 

This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends.  Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm.  They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact.  I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition.  Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. 

[mitchnick]

latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!)

we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north

let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

 

 

EDIT: same time, 0z Sunday, Euro has a 1008 slp due east of HAT by 100-150 miles while SREFs put it further south off Myrtle Beach by about the same distance and mean is 1016

[North Balti Zen]

latest SREF's 12 hr precip at 87 hrs (yes, end of run, but that's when the storm is coming!)

we know if it was over us at this range, it would shift north

let's see if we get lucky (but not too lucky to end up north of us!)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

 

Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill.

[NattyBo]

This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends.  Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm.  They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact.  I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition.  Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. 

 

I agree with this - not sure how, but tons of people know in my office that I follow the weather (by which I mean lurk here, read CWG, and learn what I can) and they're all expecting a foot of snow on Saturday night or Sunday.  I keep telling them it's far from certain we'll get anything, but several have said they saw it on TV, etc.

[mitchnick]

Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill.

well, that's because we're too far north for southern stream systems and too far south from northern stream generated systems

[CAPE]

This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends.  Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm.  They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact.  I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition.  Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. 

The general public(non weather hobbyists) caught onto it from social media, specifically FB and some idiot who poses as a weather expert, and calls himself weatherboy weather. He posted a single run of the Euro control model, which showed the MA and SNE getting 30-40" of snow. It was a total snowfall map for Feb 1 through 10, not a single storm. And no way it would verify either way. Anyway it got shared a few thousand times and went viral. Social media fostering the propagation of misinformation...imagine that.

[mdsnowlover]

This is a very good quick paragraph that I am forwarding to friends.  Never before have I had so many people asking me about this "epic" weekend storm.  They've been mentioning it for days now acting like 30" is fact.  I don't understand how non-weather enthusiasts caught onto this thing, given we occasionally see epic storms on the 10-15 day outlook, and obviously rarely see them come to fruition.  Though, you ask the general public right now and they're all expecting a blizzard this weekend. 

i think this is because of who posted the control run of the euro, hell even my money manager told me about the "epic winter event" this weekend, I told him it was bogus, he said that was not what he was told. I didn't go any further

[J.Mike]

if your taking xanax for lack of snow then you have a serious problem take a break

j/k.

The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

A nice and dry weekend ahead here in Central VA. We need to dry out.

[clueless]

j/k.

The project I'm on is on life support, my entire management team has been removed by request of the agency. I was planning to submit my resignation, but I'll probably be laid off first. A little snow would help with the frustration.

I am sorry to hear that. Very stressful. Take care.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

The problem w/ the phase scenario is that the 2 vorts are becoming further and further distanced with each run. Getting to the point where it's not gonna be close....

[Fozz]

Mitch, if its south of us, it stays south. If its on us, it moves north. You know the drill.

Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks.

[hosj III]

Let's wait until Friday when the energy enters better sampeling grids. Right now, model runs don't mean much. With every big event there was a period of time when the models didn't show it. Lots of storms have suddenly changed on the models when the energy entered the US.

[attml]

What does the Berk say - Snow snow snow to snow snow.......

[CAPE]

What does the Berk say - Snow snow snow to snow snow.......

#FITF

[North Balti Zen]

Some of our best blizzards started out as Carolina storms on the models. The idea that north trend only happens if it screws the mid-Atlantic is complete bullocks.

Once in awhile, sure. But more often than not, no. I sure wouldn't mind seeing some model runs today do something other than shunt that energy off the coast in NC. I sure don't think chirping "north trend" means anything, particularly with that northern stream dealie looking like a kicker to keep it from having any chance of coming north.

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[Bob Chill]

I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way.

EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead.

Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo.

[North Balti Zen]

I suppose putting our eggs in the front running vort is better than praying the trailing ns vort gets below. Ensemble guidance strongly favors being on the wrong side of the ns vort attm. Still an ok lead time for that to change but it's hard to ignore the pretty strong signal that the follow up won't do it. And it also seems quite unlikely that there is any chance left for the 2 vorts to combine forces in a meaningful way.

EPS precip panels show us in light precip for 36+ hours. Still a good but of spread. The means show about .20+/- total for the period. A couple of inches of snow from either seems pretty possible. Almost all members agree that we get some snow out of this and that's not bad at this lead.

Wouldn't take much to allow a better scrape from the frontrunning vort. We'll see how it goes. I'm in take what I can get mode. An inch or 2 is fine with me. 4" would be a big score imo.

 

Bob, for your scenario to have a chance, don't we need that NS vort to slow down and give the southern one a chance to amplify a tad? Seems to me (unless I am reading it wrong, which is very possible) that the northern vort sends the southern one packing before it can really get to us, and leaves us in-between the two pieces of energy for the most part...

[mattie g]

Can't wait till El Niño

 

Moderate.  Without blocking.

 

It's gonna be wet and warm next winter.

[Bob Chill]

Bob, for your scenario to have a chance, don't we need that NS vort to slow down and give the southern one a chance to amplify a tad? Seems to me (unless I am reading it wrong, which is very possible) that the northern vort sends the southern one packing before it can really get to us, and leaves us in-between the two pieces of energy for the most part...

Hard to say the "perfect" scenario. I think confluence and minimal riding off the ec as the front runner approaches is more of a killer than lack of amplification on the back due to the ns vort.

The entire evolution is complicated even without a phase. I have a hunch that lwx may be right about the first piece ending up more amplified out in front. It's really close to use as it is. It's not like we are praying for 200 mile shift. 100 miles with the nw side of the precip shield would make some folks happy (unless they are sold on getting a big storm).