Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 i remember back in Feb 2006, the euro had a big snowstorm 7 days out...it dissappeared and then the JMA and GFS brought it back 3 days later and the rest was history. Euro never caught on till a day after JMA and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just looking at the 18Z NAM at 72h (I know, I know) vs. the 12Z GFS at 78, it's shocking how different the H5 is out west. Just a totally different setup...and that's only 3 days out... Until that gets resolved, we are likely to keep seeing different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i remember back in Feb 2006, the euro had a big snowstorm 7 days out...it dissappeared and then the JMA and GFS brought it back 3 days later and the rest was history. Euro never caught on till a day after JMA and GFS The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one. LWX sure is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LWX sure is bullish Is that good or bad? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just a note about the stratosphere, since it has a bad reputation in the community: regardless of what happens this weekend, what made it at all possible in the first place was the stratosphere. The waves that put the splitting vortex into motion occurred well before this threat period. So, it took the same kind of pattern we have been seeing but pushed it further south for a time during the peak of the split. Is it far enough south to score? Who knows... but it is at least a push south to help out with confluence. Without it, the same old unfavorable regime would be in place. Okay carry on with model talk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just looking at the 18Z NAM at 72h (I know, I know) vs. the 12Z GFS at 78, it's shocking how different the H5 is out west. Just a totally different setup...and that's only 3 days out... Until that gets resolved, we are likely to keep seeing different solutions. I am not even sure that is the right wave to focus on at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 EPS support the op with the front runner and light event. I just saw precip panels. MSLP isn't out yet. Not a good look for now. Looks like the second piece is further south. Grazed by the front wave/coastal but the precip fills back in from the tn valley/se. Sunday probably has some decent members for the second wave. Control supports a better second wave as well. If it's snow, it's still better than the 35F rain bag of crap the GFS throws at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm sure it will find a way to throw up on itself after but I love the look at h5 and surface at 108 on gfs. Great setup at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If it's snow, it's still better than the 35F rain bag of crap the GFS throws at us. Totally agree and yes, it was snow based on temps and mid levels on the means. 18z gfs idea of a duck pin bowling ball is fine with me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 nice diggy vort...I think this run wants to do it....please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice h5 through 114 with a closed low still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm sure it will find a way to throw up on itself after but I love the look at h5 and surface at 108 on gfs. Great setup at that point. No doubt in my mind it's good. Good confluence keeping it low. May not be a mecs setup but we can get hit nice with good ul energy like that. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we are going to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we are going to get there Mini boom potential with no precip type worries on a track like that. I don't care what the surface panels spit out on this run. Give us a track like that and we take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 nice run,....I'll take it..solid 4-7" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know this is a big storm when Matt is extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 nice run,....I'll take it..solid 4-7" event Yep, I'd take this run, because you know it would trend stronger and wetter as we got closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know this is a big storm when Matt is extrapolating. I'm not extrapolating...I get 0.6" with a light snow appetizer on saturday....probably more like 6-8" for DC - Balt all snow...hook it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 nice run,....I'll take it..solid 4-7" event It's a 24+ hour event with the 2 waves. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Big step in the right direction. So close to something bigger too. Gfs holds some energy back over the lakes instead of phasing in and bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not extrapolating...I get 0.6" with a light snow appetizer on saturday....probably more like 6-8" for DC - Balt all snow...hook it up Are you considering both waves, or the Monday wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not extrapolating...I get 0.6" with a light snow appetizer on saturday....probably more like 6-8" for DC - Balt all snow...hook it upI was talking about when you said I think we do it. I'm not greedy let's lock this in and we can all be kumbaya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Big step in the right direction. So close to something bigger too. Gfs holds some energy back over the lakes instead of phasing in and bombing. I saw that and it partially worried me. The track is as close as we want as far as latitude. I don't want some phase tugging it and blowing up over PA and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 forget HECS/MECS. Lock up 18z and ill be happy for the winter. 6-8 cold snow long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I saw that and it partially worried me. The track is as close as we want as far as latitude. I don't want some phase tugging it and blowing up over PA and SNE. that is legit but its risk reward. Go big or go home. With that setup, the h5 track, and confluence forcing things south initially I think northern va and dc would be ok with that lakes vort phasing in and bombing as long as the dominant low is the one that goes south of you. Last few runs the lakes vort was the dominant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 nice diggy vort...I think this run wants to do it....please! every run is a new solution. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 i'll take it. looks good actually and no precip type issues as far as i can tell, and nice that there's a few days of cold preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 forget HECS/MECS. Lock up 18z and ill be happy for the winter. 6-8 cold snow long duration Co-sign. I would take that solution and call it a day. Usually psuhoffman's go big or go home has some appeal to me, but not in this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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