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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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i remember back in Feb 2006, the euro had a big snowstorm 7 days out...it dissappeared and then the JMA and GFS brought it back 3 days later and the rest was history. Euro never caught on till a day after JMA and GFS

 

 

The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. 

 

Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one. 

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The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. 

 

Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one.

LWX sure is bullish

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The thing that makes this storm pretty fun is the cascading effects from early in the game. It's one thing to fret over a typical vort track as it traverses the country. But that's not nearly the case here. 

 

Minor timing and interaction slips by d3 end up causing wholesale changes down the line. GEFS showed it starkly. Basically pick one. 

post-1372-0-08039800-1391548687_thumb.jp

 

 

MDstorm

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Just a note about the stratosphere, since it has a bad reputation in the community: regardless of what happens this weekend, what made it at all possible in the first place was the stratosphere. The waves that put the splitting vortex into motion occurred well before this threat period. So, it took the same kind of pattern we have been seeing but pushed it further south for a time during the peak of the split. Is it far enough south to score? Who knows... but it is at least a push south to help out with confluence. Without it, the same old unfavorable regime would be in place.

 

Okay carry on with model talk... :)

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Just looking at the 18Z NAM at 72h (I know, I know) vs. the 12Z GFS at 78, it's shocking how different the H5 is out west. Just a totally different setup...and that's only 3 days out...

 

Until that gets resolved, we are likely to keep seeing different solutions.  

 

I am not even sure that is the right wave to focus on at this point...

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EPS support the op with the front runner and light event. I just saw precip panels. MSLP isn't out yet. Not a good look for now. 

 

 

Looks like the second piece is further south. Grazed by the front wave/coastal but the precip fills back in from the tn valley/se. Sunday probably has some decent members for the second wave. Control supports a better second wave as well. 

If it's snow, it's still better than the 35F rain bag of crap the GFS throws at us. 

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I'm sure it will find a way to throw up on itself after but I love the look at h5 and surface at 108 on gfs. Great setup at that point.

 

No doubt in my mind it's good. Good confluence keeping it low. May not be a mecs setup but we can get hit nice with good ul energy like that. I'm in. 

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Big step in the right direction. So close to something bigger too. Gfs holds some energy back over the lakes instead of phasing in and bombing.

 

I saw that and it partially worried me. The track is as close as we want as far as latitude.  I don't want some phase tugging it and blowing up over PA and SNE.

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I saw that and it partially worried me. The track is as close as we want as far as latitude. I don't want some phase tugging it and blowing up over PA and SNE.

that is legit but its risk reward. Go big or go home. With that setup, the h5 track, and confluence forcing things south initially I think northern va and dc would be ok with that lakes vort phasing in and bombing as long as the dominant low is the one that goes south of you. Last few runs the lakes vort was the dominant one.
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