Interstate Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I hope the models come into agreement by the Saturday's 0z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The differences that psuhoffman posted continue to show me why models are so lacking. they aren't going to be very good from this lead time with a complicated pattern with a lot of moving pieces...we've been looking a lot of analog patterns this winter which is something you would like, which is basically what kind of scenarios did past similar patterns produce...that has been more helpful at longer lead times, and used in conjunction with models. Once we get closer in, the chaos is less and models are pretty amazing, though they won't always get the nuances right...knowing climo and knowing DC definitely helps...but bucking the models in a serious way close in will usually lead to a poor forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hopefully once this stupid rain storm is out of the area and sampling is done, the models will have a better consensus on our dinner menu for this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not trowing in the towel until thursday night runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm not trowing in the towel until thursday night runs come in. good. no one should be trowing yet. In a couple months the president will be trowing out the first pitch for baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro actually gives our area plenty of snowfall over the next couple of weeks. A whacky and different run, but a snowier run, even in long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro actually gives our area plenty of snowfall over the next couple of weeks. A whacky and different run, but a snowier run, even in long range. I'm sure that will work out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro actually gives our area plenty of snowfall over the next couple of weeks. A whacky and different run, but a snowier run, even in long range. Probably more like rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 good. no one should be trowing yet. In a couple months the president will be trowing out the first pitch for baseball. Baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The differences that psuhoffman posted continue to show me why models are so lacking. The model guidance is an amazing tool as long as you use it the right way, as GUIDANCE. there are way too many that read the models verbatim and throw it down as a forecast. That is bad meteorology plain and simple. But the models can be used to increase skill for a good forecaster that takes several factors and tools into the big picture. Frankly there are some things that are almost impossible to see simply using old school met practices and the models are invaluable to help us see things we could not before. Analogs have their limitations also as no two events are identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm sure that will work out as modeled. Ha, I know, I'm just saying FWIW Probably more like rainfall. And no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 good. no one should be trowing yet. In a couple months the president will be trowing out the first pitch for baseball. I would be so proud of myself if I was ever brilliant enough to be elevated to the level of grammar officer of an online weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ha, I know, I'm just saying FWIW And no yep, SBY is all snow on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would be so proud of myself if I was ever brilliant enough to be elevated to the level of grammar officer of an online weather forum. burn Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I would be so proud of myself if I was ever brilliant enough to be elevated to the level of grammar officer of an online weather forum. This might be your shortest post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All this talk of appetizers and main courses is funny. It's like we're waiting in the lobby to eat at a three-star Michelin restaurant. If we get past the maitre'd at all, which is unlikely, we pay a fortune for two tiny courses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All this talk of appetizers and main courses is funny. It's like we're waiting in the lobby to eat at a three-star Michelin restaurant. If we get past the maitre'd at all, which is unlikely, we pay a fortune for two tiny courses. You actually wait to be seated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Like Wes said, the EURO is actually closer to a big storm than it looks, The shortwave at 120 hours looks like it is in a pretty good spot, however the energy that was shot out ahead of it kind of stole its thunder so it develops too late. JMA is actually similar to EURO as well except keeps more of the energy in the main show. I'd say more than 50% of the eventual big storms that we get do this on the models, they show big hits in the 7-9 range, lose the storm, though keeping the idea, and then come around to the storm. Not saying that will happen, but the threat is still very alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is that meaningful or just a consequence of focusing on ensembles in the 7-9 range and operationals in the 5-7 day range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You actually wait to be seated? Unless you live in Northern Maryland or in Winchester, you don't have a reservation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 None of what I said is counter to what the model says because it does not say anthing. What is does say is there may be a low right along the southeastern Great lakes, or there may be a low 50 miles south of DC, or there may be a low 100 miles east of Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 all I'm saying is this, before the Euro showed the bliz in NE last FEB, the model looked like this, with an extended period of light snow within a day, maybe 2, it consolidated and slammed then I said that's all I'm saying, so don't ask me anything more JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 None of what I said is counter to what the model says because it does not say anthing. What is does say is there may be a low right along the southeastern Great lakes, or there may be a low 50 miles south of DC, or there may be a low 100 miles east of Norfolk. yeah..at this range with a more complex setup, there are going to be a variety of solutions...using ensemble members makes more sense to get the range of possibilities or at least where guidance may be leaning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Unless you live in Northern Maryland or in Winchester, you don't have a reservation. I live in southern MoCo, and trust me, I have plenty of reservations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 yeah..at this range with a more complex setup, there are going to be a variety of solutions...using ensemble members makes more sense to get the range of possibilities or at least where guidance may be leaning... That doesn't help very much right now though.... 12z GEFS were all over the place -- some showing a cutter, some flat solutions, and some look like they would be large snowstorms... GGEM ensembles are better, they have a coastal... but some are out to sea, some are hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 EPS support the op with the front runner and light event. I just saw precip panels. MSLP isn't out yet. Not a good look for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the second piece is further south. Grazed by the front wave/coastal but the precip fills back in from the tn valley/se. Sunday probably has some decent members for the second wave. Control supports a better second wave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the second piece is further south. Grazed by the front wave/coastal but the precip fills back in from the tn valley/se. Sunday probably has some decent members for the second wave. Control supports a better second wave as well. too far out to worry. If we dont see something better tomorrow....then maybe start to panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 too far out to worry. If we dont see something better tomorrow....then maybe start to panic Yea, just relaying the info verbatim. I have my thoughts for this storm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 too far out to worry. If we dont see something better tomorrow....then maybe start to panic Yep, I know the closer to the event the more it matters but yesterday at 12z we had a miller A with ensemble support. Today we don't. If it doesn't come back soon it's likely done but now is not towel throwage time yet for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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