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Feb 8-10 Light snow event that i spent 10 days tracking


Ji

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12z GEFS are all over the place... some big hits... some show nothing... long week ahead

Yeah they are.  Several have Op-like big bags of WTF.  3-4 are major hits Miller-A style.  A couple big cutters.  I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago.  

 

Saturday has my eye though.  Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op.  Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC.  If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize).  

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Yeah they are.  Several have Op-like big bags of WTF.  3-4 are major hits Miller-A style.  A couple big cutters.  I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago.  

 

Saturday has my eye though.  Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op.  Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC.  If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize).  

 

P004/P005/P006 look tasty

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Take your pick of lows on the 12 gfs ensemble mean.  None of them look too good to me:

gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_22.png

could be because there are several solutions and they are splitting the difference on the means...or because the GEFS is implying the system does not get its act together until late.  Wont tell until individual panels come out.

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could be because there are several solutions and they are splitting the difference on the means...or because the GEFS is implying the system does not get its act together until late.  Wont tell until individual panels come out.

 

They already are out on PSU E-Wall... WxUSAF and I discussed them briefly above

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The frontunner on the euro is pretty close to giving us something...as wxusaf said, def something to pay attention to...as is gives us some light snow...maybe 1-2" for southeast areas

 

The front running vort has been coming out more amped every day. It taps the gulf. If I had to guess this trend will continue. How far north precip gets is tough with confluence above. But if recent past history tells us anything....and some gefs members signaling it as well. 

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The front running vort has been coming out more amped every day. It taps the gulf. If I had to guess this trend will continue. How far north precip gets is tough with confluence above. But if recent past history tells us anything....and some gefs members signaling it as well. 

 

I think it's kinda hurting us tho for the supposed main course.

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Yeah they are.  Several have Op-like big bags of WTF.  3-4 are major hits Miller-A style.  A couple big cutters.  I'd say less consensus then there was 24-36 hours ago.  

 

Saturday has my eye though.  Most members have a defined low scoot W-E offshore to our south, including the Op.  Euro has hinted at that a bit if IIRC.  If that moved a bit north, we could have a nice little appetizer (or consolation prize).  

I think it is the handing off of too much energy into that frontrunner that is preventing the bigger solution for the amplifying trough behind it.  It's possible that front system turns into something, but I am more interested to see as we get closer if the models don't key more on the trailing system and thus a bigger event. 

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I think it's kinda hurting us tho for the supposed main course.

 

it kind of leaves behind some energy and we get some more light snow on Sunday....but the "2nd" act is mostly OTS too...not sure you can treat them as 2 discrete events...anyway we get some light snows on Saturday and then again on Sunday, but nothing more than 1-2" maybe

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Yeah, was afraid of that.    That's unfortunate, but hey.. 1 to 2" from the consolation!!!!!  

 

We'll see about that 1-2. Compact low gets going off of obx. If the front runner amps enough things change pretty quick, And if that happens I don't give an F about what could have been the main show. 

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it kind of leaves behind some energy and we get some more light snow on Sunday....but the "2nd" act is mostly OTS too...not sure you can treat them as 2 discrete events...anyway we get some light snows on Saturday and then again on Sunday, but nothing more than 1-2" maybe

this sounds like more our "speed" and probably supported by the pattern

plus, something weak that morphs into something moderate come game time is doable around here

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Too many vorts spoiling the party or is the flow too flat and fast? Or both?

 

The interaction out west is the all or nothing. The original idea was the strong vort diving out of canada was going to phase with the southern vort/trough and combine forces. Now the front runner comes out by itself and leaves the important piece in the dust. So by the time the ns vort ejects it has to dig by itself so there is basically no amplification to get excited about. 

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it kind of leaves behind some energy and we get some more light snow on Sunday....but the "2nd" act is mostly OTS too...not sure you can treat them as 2 discrete events...anyway we get some light snows on Saturday and then again on Sunday, but nothing more than 1-2" maybe

It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days.  If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit.

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The interaction out west is the all or nothing. The original idea was the strong vort diving out of canada was going to phase with the southern vort/trough and combine forces. Now the front runner comes out by itself and leaves the important piece in the dust. So by the time the ns vort ejects it has to dig by itself so there is basically no amplification to get excited about.

That sounds just like euro desert sw bias

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It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days.  If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit.

 

What if the first one amplifies more? Couldn't it become a MA only deal?

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What if the first one amplifies more? Couldn't it become a MA only deal?

That's hard to do with the next system roaring in on its heals.  A little more amplitude might help.  With all the huge differences between model runs and ens members, I wouldn't read much into the euro except it's better than the GFS.  Neither is likely right.

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That's hard to do with the next system roaring in on its heals.  A little more amplitude might help.  With all the huge differences between model runs and ens members, I wouldn't read much into the euro except it's better than the GFS.  Neither is likely right.

 

yeah...it's easy to become tethered to bad model solutions, even at significant lead time....there are a couple decent analogs for the pattern including some bad ones....

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That's hard to do with the next system roaring in on its heals.  A little more amplitude might help.  With all the huge differences between model runs and ens members, I wouldn't read much into the euro except it's better than the GFS.  Neither is likely right.

 

Agreed. The only thing the ops told us today was to watch for it coming out in pieces. It's possible. 

 

Euro ensemble mean from last night looks absolutely nothing like what today's op looks like anyways. And today's gefs said take your pick. 

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I'm but a rank amateur, and I know this setup kinda sucks, but isn't this par for the course a lot of times for storms like this - to have something pretty consistently from day 9 or 10 through day 5 and then lose it, only to bring it back 72 or 84 hours out? 

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It's better than the GFS.....the ensembles are all over the place so we still won't have a clue for another couple of days.  If the 1st impulse didn't pull a low way off the coast, the second one would probably be a decent hit.

I was thinking this too... the frontrunner is way out ahead of the h5 trough so there is a limit to how much it can amp since its running into confluence without much upper support, but what it is doing is racing east with the WAA and messing up the flow behind it.  Weaken that frontrunner and I think we get a solution that makes more of us happy. 

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this sounds like more our "speed" and probably supported by the pattern

plus, something weak that morphs into something moderate come game time is doable around here

 

I agree. If it keeps ejecting weak waves at least it would take a big cutter off of the table. But of course we lose our HEC's chances.

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