Ian Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's only tuesdayYeah but yesterday was Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The fact that it's changing so much should leave the door open that it could still change for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Saratoga Springs road trip?...it's beautiful up there...can get a place on Lake George I'm in. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah but yesterday was Monday and tomorrow is Wednesday which is one day closer to springggggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So we miss a storm to our north and then Texas gets slammed right after with another storm? Oh the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's only tuesday Yes. This! Keep it together peeps. The EURO (and it's ensembles) will save us. Seriously though, has it not been king in the past on STJ storms? GFS will likely come around late week. Well, at least that's what the voices in my head say--which could be a problem in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't get why people want to throw the towel in at this point and why they think models are going to lock in given our set up. This is not 2009-2010 where the conditions were perfect for us and model run after model run crushed us 5-6 days out. It has been pointed out by many that the pattern does not really support a major crushing snow storm. We are going to see a different solutions with every run. Some close and some just completely ridiculous if compared to the previous run, but maybe not so ridiculous given the pattern set-up. I think everything is on the table and if we get a 4-8" we will have to thread the needle, that is the pattern we are in. Most likely we will see a storm that cuts and crushes the interior or a Miller B that crushes Philly to Boston because that is the setup. However, we are not in or out at on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The differences at 500 over the previous 3 GFS runs is staggering really. I guess with the model wavering so much anything is still possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GGEM says nope to everyone.. even BOS I'll take an out to sea solution at this point over any other, including a direct hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Have any of the models been consistent run to run? Nope. But the current discussion is focused on the GFS. We will see what the Euro offers up in a hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll take an out to sea solution at this point over any other, including a direct hit I'm with ya. If the 12z Euro shows anything close to what it had last night, I will be encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 IS the CMC out? Did I miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 IS the CMC out? Did I miss it? ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The differences at 500 over the previous 3 GFS runs is staggering really. I guess with the model wavering so much anything is still possible at this point. The big changes seem to start over the pac nw @ 00Z Sat. That energy has been handled differently every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ots HA - I guess we all missed it.. GREAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GGEM ensembles from last night ran the gamut from 132-156.... some very nice members in there.. others naso nice http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 When the heck did it become okay to start posting/discussing the CRAS and DGEX again? They have no (practical) use. None. Zero. Maybe we should scrap them and use the computing resources to make the NAM/GFS better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't get why people want to throw the towel in at this point and why they think models are going to lock in given our set up. This is not 2009-2010 where the conditions were perfect for us and model run after model run crushed us 5-6 days out. It has been pointed out by many that the pattern does not really support a major crushing snow storm. We are going to see a different solutions with every run. Some close and some just completely ridiculous if compared to the previous run, but maybe not so ridiculous given the pattern set-up. I think everything is on the table and if we get a 4-8" we will have to thread the needle, that is the pattern we are in. Most likely we will see a storm that cuts and crushes the interior or a Miller B that crushes Philly to Boston because that is the setup. However, we are not in or out at on Tuesday. Sometimes I wish I had gone to grad school for met so I can understand things better but it does seen like the pattern we are in is one where storms are picked up either really early or kinda late. 09/10 had large storms so maybe less could go wrong and models handled it better. In this pattern it might be better to take it one storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 You know I will never blow smoke up your @$$, and the trends the last 24 hours are not good, but there is a chance things evolve back towards a better scenario. The Euro could be having issues holding the STJ energy back too much, like its bias, and the GFS seems to be throwing too much into the front runner and leaving nothing behind for what to me looks like the main vort digging in behind. Sometimes the energy really does run out ahead, but just looking at evolution on the 12z GFS it seems wrong to me. All that energy diving in behind, and the GFS runs the initial surface low OTS then puts all its eggs in the northern stream system. If that STJ system does not hand off all its energy OTS and has more left behind I think we see more of a gulf low develop and this looks more like it did a few days ago. I will admit this new trend is bad but its possible its doing the normal 3-5 day thing where models lose the correct solution they had at day 7. Agree. I'm not sure what's going to happen this weekend, but I do know it will probably not be what the GFS is currently showing. In complicated situations, GFS is not usually very good. I will enjoy watching the GFS continue to flip-flop over the next few days. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, but what does Icez think about the D10 pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sometimes I wish I had gone to grad school for met so I can understand things better but it does seen like the pattern we are in is one where storms are picked up either really early or kinda late. 09/10 had large storms so maybe less could go wrong and models handled it better. In this pattern it might be better to take it one storm at a time. the updated HPC 11am discussion explains it pretty well as to why there are some model discrepencies...Patience is the key here...there are many moving parts which is why so many solutions are being thrown out...still may end badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At least we have the 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't get why people want to throw the towel in at this point and why they think models are going to lock in given our set up. This is not 2009-2010 where the conditions were perfect for us and model run after model run crushed us 5-6 days out. It has been pointed out by many that the pattern does not really support a major crushing snow storm. We are going to see a different solutions with every run. Some close and some just completely ridiculous if compared to the previous run, but maybe not so ridiculous given the pattern set-up. I think everything is on the table and if we get a 4-8" we will have to thread the needle, that is the pattern we are in. Most likely we will see a storm that cuts and crushes the interior or a Miller B that crushes Philly to Boston because that is the setup. However, we are not in or out at on Tuesday. some people on this board like to wallow in self pity. Personally it gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GGEM OTS {snip} Yesterday's run at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take your pick of lows on the 12 gfs ensemble mean. None of them look too good to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yesterday's run at 12z Deleted, I guess PSU did not update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Take your pick of lows on the 12 gfs ensemble mean. None of them look too good to me: Stop wallowing in your self-pity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 the updated HPC 11am discussion explains it pretty well as to why there are some model discrepencies...Patience is the key here...there are many moving parts which is why so many solutions are being thrown out...still may end badly Yeah, thanks for pointing this out. This is the best part of the discussion: I PUT VERY LITTLE STOCK IN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE SUB-970MB LOW SOLUTION OF THE 14/06Z GFS FOR TWO REASONS. AND BOTH ARE TIED TO THE SAME PREMISE...A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT DAYS 3-4...WHICH THIS GFS RUN DELAYS TO THE POINT THAT IT'S A GOOD 12-18 HOURS SLOWER UPSTREAM WITH THE SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALLOWS MUCH MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE EXITING SYSTEM (DAY 6) SEEMS TO BE A STRETCH. OVERALL...THAT SOLUTION WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF EITHER THE GEFS OR ECENS MEANS. OVERALL...THE KEY TO THE FORECAST REMAINS TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING (CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON). IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRULY ERODE THE WEST COAST RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. UNTIL THEN...THE ECENS IS A DECENT GUIDANCE TOOL FOR DAYS 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GEFS are all over the place... some big hits... some show nothing... long week ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Stop wallowing in your self-pity. Trust me, I'm not. It's the GFS I think is pitiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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